Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

6.3%12.5%18.8%25.0% · Oct 199319922001200920182026
48 results for sequential measurement

We consider the problem of sequential prediction and provide tools to study the minimax value of the associated game. Classical statistical learning theory provides several useful complexity measures to study learning with i.i.d. data. Our proposed sequential complexities can be seen as extensions of these measures to …

2010-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified deep sequential and state-space models for robust option pricing with uncertainty.

problem Combining robustness to noise and uncertainty measurement in option pricing models.
method Unscattered reservoir smoother (URS) integrating deep sequential and state-space models.
result URS achieves competitive forecasting accuracy and uncertainty measurement in noisy datasets.

The study formalizes temporal precision and recall for anomaly detection in sequences.

problem Insufficient understanding of precision and recall in sequential anomaly detection.
method Formalized temporal precision and recall measures, developed time-tolerant confusion matrices, and demonstrated statistical significance.
result Precision and recall may overestimate performance with temporal tolerance.

We present an information-theoretic framework for sequential adaptive compressed sensing, Info-Greedy Sensing, where measurements are chosen to maximize the extracted information conditioned on the previous measurements. We show that the widely used bisection approach is Info-Greedy for a family of kk-sparse signals b…

2014-07-02abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents a framework for exact discovery of the top-k sequential patterns under Leverage. It combines (1) a novel definition of the expected support for a sequential pattern - a concept on which most interestingness measures directly rely - with (2) SkOPUS: a new branch-and-bound algorithm for the exact disc…

2015-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper extends consistency results for sequential design strategies to vector-valued Gaussian processes.

problem Estimating excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian processes.
method Clarifying the connection between continuous Gaussian processes and Gaussian measures in Banach spaces, extending concepts and properties from scalar-valued settings to vector-valued settings.
result Consistency results for sequential design strategies can be applied to vector-valued Gaussian processes.

OnAIR reconstructs dynamic images from sparse measurements online.

problem Reconstructing dynamic images from limited or corrupted measurements.
method Online adaptive reconstruction using sparsity and low-rank models with dictionary learning.
result Memory-efficient online algorithms for sequential estimation of dictionary and images.

A new method reduces computational costs for testing RF variable importance measures.

problem Testing variable importance measures from random forests is computationally expensive and challenging.
method Sequential permutation testing and sequential p-value estimation to reduce computational costs.
result Theoretical properties of sequential tests are confirmed, maintaining type-I error and high power.

A new kernel Stein test assesses fit for variable-length sequential data.

problem Evaluating goodness of fit for varying-dimensional data like text documents of different lengths.
method Extends kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) to variable-dimension settings by identifying appropriate Stein operators and proposing a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test.
result The proposed test performs well on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

New method for sequential probability assignment reduces regret using contextual Shtarkov sums.

problem Minimizing regret in sequential probability assignment with arbitrary hypothesis classes.
method Introducing contextual Shtarkov sum and contextual Normalized Maximum Likelihood (cNML) algorithm.
result The contextual Shtarkov sum characterizes minimax regret and provides a minimax optimal strategy.

Bayesian predictors are optimal for sequential forecasting without assumptions.

problem Sequential probability forecasting in a general model class without assumptions.
method Bayesian approach with discrete prior matching cumulative loss up to logn\log n.
result Bayesian predictors are optimal up to logn\log n for every nn and measure in the model class.

Estimates extreme probabilities using fewer simulations than Monte Carlo.

problem Estimating tail probabilities of complex systems efficiently.
method Builds a statistical surrogate with few evaluations and sequentially improves the estimate.
result Improves estimation of extreme probabilities with fewer simulations.

RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.

problem Efficiently forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) with long-memory and non-linear realized volatility.
method Loss-based generalized Bayesian inference with Sequential Monte Carlo for model estimation and prediction.
result RNN-HAR model consistently outperforms other VaR forecasting models.

Improves sequential recommendation with relation-aware self-attention.

problem Improving accuracy in sequential recommendation.
method Integrates Transformer's self-attention mechanism with a probabilistic model of recommendation context.
result Significant improvements over recent baseline models.

New algorithms minimize MMD to approximate probability measures efficiently.

problem Approximating probability measures by representative point sets.
method Sequential greedy minimization of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) over candidate sets, with mini-batch variants.
result Consistency of proposed algorithms and mini-batch variants established.

New private algorithm for sequential hypothesis testing with privacy and error rate guarantees.

problem Privacy protection in sequential hypothesis testing for sensitive data.
method Renyi differential privacy, Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT).
result Private algorithm with strong privacy guarantees and theoretical performance analysis.

A two-step approach efficiently selects hyperparameters for FCMs.

problem Efficiently selecting hyperparameters for FCMs in a computationally expensive process.
method Two-step sequential approach: first estimate context length k, then estimate α.
result The proposed method achieves comparable compression performance to exhaustive search but with reduced computational cost.

The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.

problem Learning cost-optimal sequential decision policies from retrospective data with missing test results.
method Doubly robust Q-learning framework with path-specific inverse probability weights.
result The method reduces testing cost without compromising predictive accuracy.

The paper tackles sequential experimental design for transductive linear bandits.

problem Inferring the maximum of a target vector with limited noisy measurements.
method Introduces a new transductive linear bandit problem and provides instance-dependent lower bounds, an algorithm matching these bounds, and evaluation.
result First non-asymptotic algorithm for linear bandits nearly achieving information theoretic lower bound.

Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, w…

2016-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper studies the distance from calibration in sequential prediction, proving upper and lower bounds.

problem The challenge is to measure and minimize the deviation from perfect calibration in sequential binary prediction.
method The approach involves proving an O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) upper bound and an Ω(T1/3)Ω(T^{1/3}) lower bound, using structural results and minimax arguments.
result An O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) upper bound on the calibration distance is achieved, with an Ω(T1/3)Ω(T^{1/3}) lower bound showing the inherent difficulty.

The paper analyzes greedy algorithms for MMD minimization, showing their efficiency and approximation error.

problem Minimizing Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for probability measure quantization.
method Iterative algorithms including kernel herding, greedy MMD minimization, and Sequential Bayesian Quadrature (SBQ).
result The greedy algorithms have a lower approximation error than SBQ, but are significantly faster.

RLMM extends psychometric models to larger tasks.

problem Sequential process data from interactive assessments are not well handled by conventional models.
method RLMM decouples person-level choice sensitivity from task-level value representation through a shared parametric action-value function.
result RLMM achieves higher estimation accuracy and lower runtime than MDP-MM in peg-solitaire simulations and AQUALAB gameplay logs.

EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.

problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.

Sequential tests for two-sample and independence testing using betting strategies.

problem Testing sequential data for two-sample and independence without kernel selection issues.
method Prediction-based betting strategies that adaptively determine distribution and joint distribution.
result Prediction-based tests outperform kernel-based approaches in high-dimensional or structured data settings.

URGE improves diffusion model quality without gradients or Hessian.

problem Improving sample quality in diffusion models without gradient evaluations.
method Path-wise importance reweighting via Girsanov change of measure.
result URGE achieves better generation quality than existing methods.

Heterogeneous SVO leads to diverse policies in sequential social dilemmas.

problem Understanding how diverse social value orientations affect behavior in sequential social dilemmas.
method Extending prior reinforcement learning studies, we instantiated heterogeneous SVO in a sequential social dilemma setting and measured task-specific diversity metrics.
result Heterogeneous SVO leads to meaningfully diverse policies across various incentive structures.

New methods optimize experiment selection for sequential data, improving model accuracy.

problem Optimizing experiment selection for sequential data in multidimensional cases.
method Adopting greedy experiment selection methods for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proposed methods produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.

Combines multi-fidelity and asynchronous batch methods for faster experimental design.

problem Designing optimal experimental setups for battery performance.
method Algorithm combining multi-fidelity and asynchronous batch Bayesian Optimization.
result Algorithm outperforms single-fidelity batch and multi-fidelity sequential methods.

New method uses transport maps for efficient Bayesian inference.

problem Efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters.
method Estimation of structured transport maps to extract conditional distributions.
result Gradient-based characterization of posterior density for online parameter estimation.