A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper proposes using online text data to predict CPI with LLMs.
We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of Candès et al. (2018), we develop a novel testing procedure that works in conjunction…
Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing…
Develops a calibration prediction interval for non-parametric regression and neural networks.
In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…
CPI overcomes limitations of permutation importance by providing accurate variable selection.
Virtual screening (VS) is widely used during computational drug discovery to reduce costs. Chemogenomics-based virtual screening (CGBVS) can be used to predict new compound-protein interactions (CPIs) from known CPI network data using several methods, including machine learning and data mining. Although CGBVS facilitat…
Conservative Policy Iteration (CPI) is a founding algorithm of Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP). Its core principle is to stabilize greediness through stochastic mixtures of consecutive policies. It comes with strong theoretical guarantees, and inspired approaches in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, CPI …
We consider the infinite-horizon discounted optimal control problem formalized by Markov Decision Processes. We focus on several approximate variations of the Policy Iteration algorithm: Approximate Policy Iteration, Conservative Policy Iteration (CPI), a natural adaptation of the Policy Search by Dynamic Programming a…
The paper uses CPI growth rates to improve LGD predictions for CRE loans.
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant . We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …
Study shows GDP and CPI predict CCC funding, highlighting need for economic forecasting.
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generaliz…
We have studied statistical characteristics of five share price time series. For each stock price, we estimated a best fit quantitative model for the monthly closing price as based on the decomposition into two defining consumer price indices selected from a large set of CPIs. It was found that there are two pairs of s…
New method for mixed data FI controls type I error and achieves high power.
Hierarchical-CPI improves variable importance measurement for medical data.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
In 1979 following a decade of hyperinflation, Iceland introduced Verðtryggð lán, negatively amortised, index-linked loans whose outstanding principal is increased by the rate of the consumer price inflation index(CPI). The loans were part of a general government policy which used indexation to the CPI to address the ec…
Kalshi prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency volatility through monetary policy and inflation signals.
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation.…
The paper models US inflation and hyperinflation using monetary and GDP data.
Study examines challenges in variable importance ranking due to feature correlation.
An extension of the nonlinear feedback (NLF) formalism to describe regimes of hyper- and high-inflation in economy is proposed in the present work. In the NLF model the consumer price index (CPI) exhibits a finite time singularity of the type , with , predicting a blow up of the economy at a…
Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, t…
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this macroeconomic variable was first tested as a predictor of inflation and unemploym…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several relationships were estimated eight years ago. The change rate of labour force was u…
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
Recent successful deep reinforcement learning algorithms, such as Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) or Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), are fundamentally variations of conservative policy iteration (CPI). These algorithms iterate policy evaluation followed by a softened policy improvement step. As so, they are…
The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. Many stock prediction studies focus on using macroeconomic indicators, such as CPI and GDP, to train the prediction model. However…
The paper analyzes global inflation's systemic nature and its impact on equity markets.
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to …
Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) is a popular and empirically successful policy search algorithm in Reinforcement Learning (RL) in which a surrogate problem, that restricts consecutive policies to be 'close' to one another, is iteratively solved. Nevertheless, TRPO has been considered a heuristic algorithm inspi…
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a …
A model simulates how different types of traders react to macroeconomic news.
This paper presents an inverted-file k-means clustering algorithm (IVF) suitable for a large-scale sparse data set with potentially numerous classes. Given such a data set, IVF efficiently works at high-speed and with low memory consumption, which keeps the same solution as a standard Lloyd's algorithm. The high perfor…
The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to analyze and characterize this network, as captured by the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), in two ways. First, t…
Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.
Motivation: Drug discovery demands rapid quantification of compound-protein interaction (CPI). However, there is a lack of methods that can predict compound-protein affinity from sequences alone with high applicability, accuracy, and interpretability. Results: We present a seamless integration of domain knowledges and …
Machine learning models predict housing prices using macroeconomic factors.
Proposes a two-stage sector rotation method using machine learning and deep learning.
To better understand the spatial structure of large panels of economic and financial time series and provide a guideline for constructing semiparametric models, this paper first considers estimating a large spatial covariance matrix of the generalized -dependent and -mixing time series (with variables and …
Study confirms link between unemployment and real GDP growth in developed countries.
LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage, which confounds model performance.
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by A0=-1, A1=4, A2=0.095, t0=…
Study agnostic RL in large state spaces with weak function approximation.