Bayesian neural networks with dependent weights converge to Gaussian mixtures.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian priors in neural networks.
method Posterior analysis with Gaussian likelihood for networks with dependent weights.
result Posterior distribution identified in the wide-width limit, ensuring invertibility of random covariance matrix.
Sequential processing biases asset allocation in artificial stock markets.
problem Systematic bias in asset allocation due to sequential processing of order books.
method Examined the impact of sequential versus parallel clearing mechanisms on multi-asset price dynamics.
result Sequential processing introduces a significant bias affecting the allocation of traders' capital.
Study efficient resource allocation for detecting extreme values.
problem Efficiently allocate limited resources to detect extreme values in various fields.
method Proposes ExtremeHunter algorithm for sequential resource allocation under limited feedback.
result Demonstrates ExtremeHunter outperforms oracle policy in detecting extreme values.
MEANTIME improves sequential recommendation by using multi-temporal embeddings and attention mechanisms.
problem Limited use of timestamp information and information bottleneck in sequential recommendation models.
method MEANTIME employs multiple types of temporal embeddings and attention mechanisms to capture diverse patterns from user behavior sequences.
result MEANTIME outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation methods.
For a finite function class we describe the large sample limit of the sequential Rademacher complexity in terms of the viscosity solution of a G-heat equation. In the language of Peng's sublinear expectation theory, the same quantity equals to the expected value of the largest order statistics of a multidimensional $…
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling with limited applicability to large data sets. W…
Diffusion models mimic human actions in sequential tasks.
problem Cloning human behavior in dynamic environments is challenging.
method Adapting diffusion models to handle stochastic, multimodal, and correlated actions.
result Diffusion models closely replicate human behavior in robotic and gaming tasks.
Generative models of graphs are well-known, but many existing models are limited in scalability and expressivity. We present a novel sequential graphical variational autoencoder operating directly on graphical representations of data. In our model, the encoding and decoding of a graph as is framed as a sequential decon…
This work addresses identifiability in sequential data with switching dynamics, introducing a new estimator.
problem Identifiability of sequential data with regime-switching dynamics under flexible assumptions.
method Introduces ΩSDS, a flow-based estimator for exact likelihood optimization. result Demonstrates improved disentanglement and more accurate forecasting compared to VAE-based estimators.
MAYA learns bee foraging decisions with limited memory.
problem Reproducing and predicting bees' foraging decisions with limited memory.
method Sequential imitation learning model based on multi-armed bandits, considering a temporal window τ of 7 trials.
result MAYA outperforms imitation baselines and classical models, providing interpretability and realistic trajectories.
Develops a new framework for analyzing sequential decision-making problems using information theory.
problem Lack of information-theoretic generalization bounds for sequential decision-making problems.
method Introduces a sequential supersample framework that separates learner filtration from proof-side enlargement, controlling the generalization gap by sequential CMI.
result Establishes a sequential CMI that controls the generalization gap in sequential decision-making problems.
This paper reviews methods for interpreting deep learning models with sequential data.
problem Limited interpretability of deep learning models in sequential data domains.
method Reviews and compares techniques for sequential interpretability.
result Current techniques have limitations and future research is needed.
Serial problems can't be efficiently parallelized, affecting machine learning models.
problem Inefficiency of parallelization in inherently serial problems.
method Formalized distinction in complexity theory, demonstrated with diffusion models.
result Diffusion models cannot solve inherently serial problems.
AFT combines AIS, SMC, and NFs for better Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Estimating normalizing constants of complex probability distributions.
method Annealed Flow Transport (AFT) integrates AIS, SMC, and normalizing flows.
result AFT improves Monte Carlo estimates of normalizing constants and expectations.
This paper develops a new method for online density estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating probability density function from noisy streaming data.
method Quasi-Bayesian sequential deconvolution using Newton's algorithm.
result Sequential deconvolution estimate fn with large sample asymptotic guarantees. A method to improve sequential learning by keeping past data errors in check.
problem Challenges in sequential learning with Gaussian processes due to accumulating errors.
method Memory-based dual sparse variational Gaussian processes.
result Improves accuracy in inference and learning for various applications.
Discrete Flow Maps bypass sequential prediction limits for parallel text generation.
problem Sequential autoregressive prediction limits large language model speed.
method Flow Maps compress generative trajectories into single-step mappings.
result Discrete Flow Maps surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.
Proposes using frequent sequences to improve sequential recommendation models.
problem Combining user history and recent actions for personalized recommendations.
method Uses frequent sequences to identify relevant parts of user history, embedding items based on preferences and dynamics in a unified metric model.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on sparse datasets.
The study examines robust decision-making in volatile financial markets, finding action robustness is more impactful than uncertainty tolerance.
problem Sequential decision making in high-frequency markets under evolving uncertainty.
method Analyzes two dimensions of robustness: uncertainty tolerance and action robustness, using simulations and empirical evidence.
result Action robustness has a larger impact on profitability than uncertainty tolerance, and excessive robustness can reduce profitability in illiquid markets.
New method uses hyperbolic space for faster phylogenetic tree inference.
problem Inefficient Euclidean-based phylogenetic inference in high dimensions.
method Developed novel hyperbolic extensions of sequential search algorithms and variational inference methods.
result Improved speed, scalability and performance in phylogenetic inference.
In this paper, we obtain fundamental Lp bounds in sequential prediction and recursive algorithms via an entropic analysis. Both classes of problems are examined by investigating the underlying entropic relationships of the data and/or noises involved, and the derived lower bounds may all be quantified in…
Optimal tests developed for sequential experiments with asymptotic properties.
problem Performing hypothesis tests after sequential experiments without prior design.
method Analyze asymptotic properties of sequential experiments; develop tests for Gaussian process observations.
result Asymptotic power function of any test can be matched by a specific test in a limit experiment.
Method solves complex optimization problems with high probability bounds.
problem Nonlinear equality constrained stochastic optimization problems.
method Step-search sequential quadratic programming method.
result High-probability bound on iteration complexity for first-order stationarity.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
problem Inference of hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited real data and high uncertainties.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) for posterior distribution approximation.
result The method accelerates hybrid model inference and supports process monitoring and robust control.
Unified theory for optimal execution through signal-adaptive quotes in limit order books.
problem Optimal execution in limit order books with signal-dependent factors.
method Develops a unified solution theory for four execution criteria, incorporating signal-dependent drift, price impact, inventory risk, and execution risk.
result Explicit formulas reveal optimal quoting strategies and show signal-dependent drift can significantly affect execution.
New framework improves LLM performance by avoiding forgetting during sequential training stages.
problem Forgetting during sequential training stages of LLMs.
method Proposes a joint post-training framework with theoretical convergence guarantees.
result Empirically outperforms sequential post-training framework by up to 23%.
A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All t…
A new method converts neural networks to function space for scalable sequential learning.
problem Challenges in gradient-based deep learning for sequential data.
method Dual parameterization of neural networks from weight to function space.
result Efficient scaling, knowledge retention, and new data incorporation.
EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.
problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.
Proposes CSRN for better news recommendation by integrating RNN and UserCF.
problem Lack of societal influence in news recommendation.
method Integrates RNN-based sequential recommendation and UserCF, using a directed co-reading network.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in news recommendation.
New method uses Fokker-Planck equation for sampling and inference.
problem Intractability of evaluating probability density in practical applications.
method Reformulates Fokker-Planck equation as a particle flow method, using velocity field.
result Turns intractable density evaluation into an advantage for variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.
SPRT-TANDEM improves sequential classification accuracy with fewer samples.
problem Efficiently classifying sequential data with high accuracy and low sampling cost.
method Deep neural network-based SPRT algorithm that estimates log-likelihood ratio of two hypotheses.
result SPRT-TANDEM achieves statistically significantly better classification accuracy than other classifiers with fewer samples.
We introduce a class of generative network models that insert edges by connecting the starting and terminal vertices of a random walk on the network graph. Within the taxonomy of statistical network models, this class is distinguished by permitting the location of a new edge to explicitly depend on the structure of the…
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings, produce output samples drawn from a distribution that may be far from the target …
New methods optimize experiment selection for sequential data, improving model accuracy.
problem Optimizing experiment selection for sequential data in multidimensional cases.
method Adopting greedy experiment selection methods for maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proposed methods produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
Batched Neural Bandits reduces policy updates in sequential decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making with batched policy changes.
method BatchNeuralUCB algorithm combining neural networks and optimism.
result Achieves similar regret as fully sequential version with fewer policy updates.
Near-optimal tests and confidence sequences for non-parametric data.
problem Flexible statistical inference and decision-making with non-parametric data.
method Classic delayed-start normal-mixture sequential probability ratio tests with asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotically optimal type-I error and expected rejection time guarantees.
Warm-start strategies speed up GP inference by 19x.
problem Efficient sequential inference in Gaussian processes.
method Three warm-start strategies exploiting smaller linear systems.
result Warm-starting achieves up to 19x speed-up in convergence.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
New method finds arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
problem Finding arbitrage opportunities in fluctuating asset bands.
method Formulate as maximizing volatility within a price band, using convex-concave optimization.
result Approximately solves non-convex optimization problem for moving-band arbitrage.
This paper tightens the law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
problem Developing nonasymptotic concentration bounds for empirical KL_inf with optimal constants and rates.
method Presenting a tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
result A tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
Sparsity and low-rank models have been popular for reconstructing images and videos from limited or corrupted measurements. Dictionary or transform learning methods are useful in applications such as denoising, inpainting, and medical image reconstruction. This paper proposes a framework for online (or time-sequential)…
Bayesian framework for sequential learning tasks with low-rank approximations.
problem Balancing knowledge retention and adaptability in sequential neural networks.
method Bayesian framework with diagonal plus low-rank approximations of the precision matrix.
result Unlocking capabilities to encode task relationships and incorporate prior knowledge from later tasks.
Proposes a method to accelerate safe sequential learning using offline data.
problem Limited exploration due to disconnected safe regions and slow task learning.
method Safe transfer sequential learning using Gaussian processes and offline data.
result Enhances global exploration across multiple disjoint safe regions with lower data consumption.
GO-CBED optimizes experiments for specific causal queries, improving efficiency.
problem Efficiently infer causal relationships with limited resources.
method Goal-oriented Bayesian framework that maximizes expected information gain on user-specified causal quantities.
result GO-CBED outperforms existing methods in various causal tasks, especially with limited budgets.
Study of deep Stable neural networks with various activation functions.
problem Characterizing the infinitely wide limits of deep Stable neural networks.
method Investigation of large-width properties of deep Stable NNs with a generalized central limit theorem for heavy tails.
result Extension of characterization to a broader class of activation functions, including sub-linear, asymptotically linear, and super-linear functions.
New Thompson sampling algorithm for stochastic partial monitoring achieves logarithmic regret.
problem Limited feedback in sequential learning problems.
method Developed a novel Thompson-sampling-based algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution exactly.
result Achieved logarithmic regret bound of O(log T) for a linearized variant of the problem.