Develops methods for cooperative Bayesian inference.
problem Cooperation between learning agents.
method Sequential Bayesian inference approaches.
result Theoretical foundation for cooperative inference.
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48 results for “sequential Bayesian”
Solving Linear-Gaussian Bayesian Inverse Problems with Decoupled Diffusion Sequential Monte Carlocs.LG
New method uses diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Solving Bayesian inverse problems with linear-Gaussian models.
method Decoupled Diffusion Sequential Monte Carlo (DDSMC) method.
result Asymptotically exact solution demonstrated on various data types.
Postprocessing reduces Bayesian optimization steps for global optima.
problem Slow convergence in Bayesian optimization for high-dimensional problems.
method Prohibits duplicated samples in the dataset postprocessing method.
result Significantly reduces the number of sequential steps to find the global optimum.
New method to assess uncertainty in Bayesian optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian optimization.
method Constructing confidence regions of the maximum point or value of the objective function.
result Unified uncertainty quantification framework for various sampling policies and stopping criteria.
A new method for Bayesian inference using diffusion models.
problem Bayesian inference in simulator-based models.
method Score-based diffusion models trained with a sequential training procedure.
result Comparable or superior performance compared to existing methods.
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
Bayesian learning from variable-length sequences using Gaussian processes with signature covariances.
problem Learning from sequences of varying lengths and complex sequential structures.
method Gaussian processes with signature kernels, sparse variational approach, combining with LSTM/GRU models.
result Effective learning from sequences of different lengths and complex structures.
Novel framework optimizes experiments for implicit models using mutual information.
problem Optimizing experiments for intractable implicit models.
method Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design using Mutual Information.
result Framework efficiently estimates parameters with few iterations.
This paper develops a new method for online density estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating probability density function from noisy streaming data.
method Quasi-Bayesian sequential deconvolution using Newton's algorithm.
result Sequential deconvolution estimate with large sample asymptotic guarantees.
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.
Sequential Bayesian Design for Efficient Surrogate Construction in the Inversion of Darcy Flowsstat.ML
This study proposes an efficient surrogate for Darcy flow inverse problems.
problem Efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for high-dimensional complex inverse problems.
method Sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire a locally accurate surrogate model focusing on high-probability regions.
result The proposed method accelerates inversion accuracy and computational speed.
PASOA optimizes Bayesian design by improving SMC samplers and EIG.
problem Sequential design optimization for accurate parameter inference.
method Sequential optimization using contrastive estimation, SMC samplers, and tempering.
result PASOA optimizes design and inference with improved consistency.
Paper proposes semi-supervised learning with triplet Markov chains.
problem Lack of labels in training data.
method Variational Bayesian inference for semi-supervised learning.
result Derives semi-supervised algorithms for various sequential models.
Novel Bayesian approach for non-stationary linear contextual bandits.
problem Non-stationary linear contextual bandits.
method Weighted Sequential Bayesian (WSB) inference.
result Established frequentist regret guarantees for new algorithms.
Parallel Gaussian process surrogate for noisy likelihood evaluations in Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference with limited noisy log-likelihood evaluations from complex models.
method Hierarchical Gaussian process surrogate model for log-likelihood, batch-sequential design strategies.
result Robust, highly parallelizable, and sample-efficient method.
We propose a general formalism of iterated random functions with semigroup property, under which exact and approximate Bayesian posterior updates can be viewed as specific instances. A convergence theory for iterated random functions is presented. As an application of the general theory we analyze convergence behaviors…
New framework improves robust inference in HMMs under model misspecification.
problem Inference in general state-space HMMs under likelihood misspecification.
method Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods.
result Improved performance in object tracking and Gaussian process regression.
The paper proposes using path signatures for better inference in time series data.
problem Simulation models with time series data often lack tractable likelihood functions.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with path signatures to handle sequential data.
result Theoretical guarantees on the resultant posteriors for Bayesian parameter inference.
DAD learns to design experiments quickly, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Real-time decision-making in sequential Bayesian experimental design.
method Amortized design network trained with contrastive information bounds.
result DAD outperforms alternative strategies on various problems.
Develops Bayesian filtering for online learning and related problems.
problem Sequential machine learning challenges, especially non-stationarity, model misspecification, and high dimensionality.
method Modular adaptive framework, provably robust filter, and sequential parameter updates.
result Improved performance in dynamic, high-dimensional, and misspecified models.
Bayesian Perceptron offers fully Bayesian neural networks without complex computations.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in neural networks.
method Bayesian inference framework for perceptron training and predictions in closed-form.
result Analytical expressions for perceptron's output and weight learning provided.
vsOED optimizes experiment design with reinforcement learning for Bayesian models.
problem Optimizing the sequence of experiments in Bayesian models for efficient data collection.
method Reinforcement learning with variational posterior approximations to optimize design policy.
result vsOED achieves superior sample efficiency compared to existing methods.
Paper introduces IO-NPF for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficient Bayesian experimental design in non-exchangeable settings.
method Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF) for non-Markovian state-space models.
result IO-NPF achieves computational complexity, improving efficiency.
Bayesian approach helps update deep models without forgetting past data.
problem Updating deep models sequentially without forgetting past data.
method Bayesian inference for continual learning.
result Bayesian approach enables updating model beliefs with new data.
New reinforcement learning bound improves generalization for sequential data.
problem Challenges in obtaining generalization guarantees for reinforcement learning due to sequential data.
method PAC-Bayesian reinforcement learning with consideration of Markov dependencies and mixing time.
result Demonstrated practical utility through PB-SAC, providing meaningful confidence certificates.
Bayesian framework for sequential learning tasks with low-rank approximations.
problem Balancing knowledge retention and adaptability in sequential neural networks.
method Bayesian framework with diagonal plus low-rank approximations of the precision matrix.
result Unlocking capabilities to encode task relationships and incorporate prior knowledge from later tasks.
Bayesian reflex models AI learning like the autonomic nervous system.
problem Online learning in dynamic AI environments.
method Bayesian online algorithms with belief maintenance, sequential updating, and uncertainty-driven action balancing.
result Unified framework for adaptive AI learning.
Bayesian sOED uses PG reinforcement learning for efficient experiment design.
problem Optimizing sequential experiments for nonlinear models with limited data.
method Formulated as POMDP, solved via PG methods with neural network parameterization.
result Demonstrated advantages over batch and greedy designs in contaminant source inversion.
New algorithm for sequential off-policy learning improves performance over batch methods.
problem Training policies from logged interaction data in a sequential setting.
method Combines Logarithmic Smoothing with online PAC-Bayesian tools.
result Improves performance and accelerates convergence in sequential off-policy learning.
A method to improve sequential learning by keeping past data errors in check.
problem Challenges in sequential learning with Gaussian processes due to accumulating errors.
method Memory-based dual sparse variational Gaussian processes.
result Improves accuracy in inference and learning for various applications.
New SMC method for pBNNs improves scalability and predictive performance.
problem Training pBNNs with high-dimensional stochastic parameters.
method Gradient-based proposals within SMC samplers.
result New method outperforms state-of-the-art in predictive performance and training time.
Adaptive Bayesian Optimization for resource-constrained experiments with switching costs.
problem Sequential experimental design with varying costs for changing design variables.
method Adapted batch algorithms to sequential problem, proposing cost-aware and cost-ignorant methods.
result Cost-aware algorithm outperforms tuned process-constrained algorithms in all settings considered.
A new method uses ABC-SMC to infer hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited data.
problem Inference of hybrid models in bioprocesses with limited real data and high uncertainties.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) and linear Gaussian dynamic Bayesian network (LG-DBN) for posterior distribution approximation.
result The method accelerates hybrid model inference and supports process monitoring and robust control.
Develops BPDS for better financial portfolio decisions.
problem Model uncertainty in financial time series forecasting.
method Bayesian dynamic modelling and predictive decision synthesis.
result Improved predictive and decision outcomes compared to traditional Bayesian analysis.
Gradient-free framework for Bayesian experimental design in complex systems.
problem Optimal experimental design in systems where gradient information is unavailable.
method Combines EKI and ALDI for optimization and sampling, with approximations for scalable utility estimation.
result Demonstrates robust, accurate, and efficient experimental design in various complex systems.
Bayesian online learning in the one-pass regime: Frequentist validity and uncertainty quantificationmath.ST
Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
Experimenting, Fast and Slow: Bayesian Optimization of Long-term Outcomes with Online Experimentscs.LG
Bayesian optimization for long-term outcomes using fast and slow experiments.
problem Optimizing long-term system effects with short-term misleading results.
method Combining fast and slow experiments for Bayesian optimization.
result Sequential optimization over large action spaces in a short time.
BINOCULARS improves experimental design by balancing exploration and exploitation.
problem Efficiently balancing exploration and exploitation in sequential experiments.
method BINOCULARS computes a batch of experiments, then selects a single point to evaluate, avoiding myopic approaches.
result BINOCULARS significantly outperforms myopic alternatives in real-world scenarios.
Bayesian neural networks learn weights with closed-form updates.
problem Efficiently learning Bayesian neural networks with closed-form updates.
method Closed-form Bayesian inference for online learning of Gaussian-weighted BNNs.
result Closed-form expressions for sequential/online training of BNNs.
Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for each possible environment. The predictive distribution can then be constructed b…
A new method improves uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in traditional Gibbs posteriors.
method Sequential Gibbs posteriors with a Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Sequential Gibbs posteriors provide better frequentist coverage.
A Trust Crisis In Simulation-Based Inference? Your Posterior Approximations Can Be Unfaithfulstat.ML
Simulation-based inference methods can produce unreliable posterior approximations.
problem Reliability of simulation-based inference methods for scientific use cases.
method Benchmarked algorithms including Neural Posterior Estimation, Neural Ratio Estimation, Sequential Neural Likelihood, and Approximate Bayesian Computation.
result Ensembling posterior surrogates provides more reliable approximations.
New method uses transport maps for efficient Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently perform sequential Bayesian inference of static model parameters.
method Estimation of structured transport maps to extract conditional distributions.
result Gradient-based characterization of posterior density for online parameter estimation.
Current state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian text clustering methods model documents through multinomial distribution on bags of words. Although these methods can effectively utilize the word burstiness representation of documents and achieve decent performance, they do not explore the sequential information of text…
A new stopping rule based on E-values helps efficiently use sampling in Bayesian Deep Ensembles.
problem How long should sampling continue in Bayesian Deep Ensembles to yield significant improvements?
method Formulated as a sequential anytime-valid hypothesis test, using E-values to decide when to stop sampling.
result Only a fraction of the full-chain budget is often required for significant improvements.
Bayesian method for estimating inputs leading to specific probability outputs.
problem Estimating inputs for specific probability outputs of uncertain functions.
method Bayesian strategy using Gaussian process modeling and SUR principle.
result Surpassed performance of existing methods through numerical experiments.