This paper evaluates anomaly detection methods for multivariate time series data.
problem Lack of systematic comparison of anomaly detection methods on multivariate time series data.
method Comprehensive evaluation of 10 models and 4 scoring functions on 10 datasets.
result Dynamic scoring functions outperform static ones, and the choice of scoring functions matters more than the model choice.
New methods for scoring function decomposition improve forecast evaluation.
problem Improving forecast evaluation and understanding forecast components.
method Linear recalibration of forecasts for miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty.
result Enhanced statistical power and deeper insights into forecast components.
UCoS avoids forward model evaluations in sampling for large-scale linear inverse problems.
problem Efficient sampling from posterior distributions in large-scale linear inverse problems.
method UCoS approach that learns a task-dependent score function offline and uses affine transformations to derive the conditional score.
result UCoS eliminates the need for forward model evaluations during sampling, making it more efficient.
We address the problem of learning vector representations for entities and relations in Knowledge Graphs (KGs) for Knowledge Base Completion (KBC). This problem has received significant attention in the past few years and multiple methods have been proposed. Most of the existing methods in the literature use a predefin…
Recently several researchers have investigated techniques for using data to learn Bayesian networks containing compact representations for the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) stored at each node. The majority of this work has concentrated on using decision-tree representations for the CPDs. In addition, re…
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little intuitive or empirical guidance is currently available, which renders the choice…
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Proposes Vendi Score for evaluating diversity in ML models.
problem Lack of flexible diversity evaluation metrics in ML.
method Integrates ecological and quantum statistical mechanics concepts to define Vendi Score.
result Vendi Score enables flexible diversity evaluation without requiring a reference dataset.
In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
Framework assesses autograders' reliability and biases.
problem Mixed reliability and biases in autograders for LLM evaluation.
method Bayesian GLMs to model evaluation outcomes.
result Explicit quantification of scoring differences and biases.
We propose a training method for deep neural network (DNN)-based source enhancement to increase objective sound quality assessment (OSQA) scores such as the perceptual evaluation of speech quality (PESQ). In many conventional studies, DNNs have been used as a mapping function to estimate time-frequency masks and traine…
Human decision-makers often receive assistance from data-driven algorithmic systems that provide a score for evaluating objects, including individuals. The scores are generated by a function (mechanism) that takes a set of features as input and generates a score.The scoring functions are either machine-learned or human…
Study identifies regions where scoring rules reliably detect forecast errors.
problem Insufficient reliability of scoring rules in evaluating multivariate probabilistic forecasts.
method Systematic finite-sample analysis of proper scoring rules on synthetic and real-world data.
result Identified regions of reliability for scoring rules in time-series forecasting.
Identification and scoring functions are statistical tools to assess the calibration and the relative performance of risk measure estimates, e.g., in backtesting. A risk measures is called identifiable (elicitable) it it admits a strict identification function (strictly consistent scoring function). We consider measure…
Algorithm optimizes biological sequences using bootstrapped training with a score-conditioned generator.
problem Optimizing biological sequences for a black-box score function.
method Bootstrapped training of score-conditioned generator (BootGen) algorithm.
result Our method outperforms competitive baselines on biological sequential design tasks.
Improves interpretability of anomaly scores in GBRBM-based detection.
problem Difficulty in setting a proper threshold for anomaly scores.
method Proposes a measure based on cumulative distribution and uses simulated annealing for evaluation.
result Established a guideline for setting the threshold using the interpretable measure.
Score-fPINN tackles high-dimensional FPL equations using fractional score functions.
problem High-dimensional Fokker-Planck-Lévy equations with non-Brownian processes.
method Fractional score function and Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) to solve CoD and numerical overflow.
result Effective solution to high-dimensional FPL equations without fractional Laplacian.
Several structure learning algorithms have been proposed towards discovering causal or Bayesian Network (BN) graphs. The validity of these algorithms tends to be evaluated by assessing the relationship between the learnt and the ground truth graph. However, there is no agreed scoring metric to determine this relationsh…
The article reviews scoring rules for estimating and evaluating forecasts.
problem Evaluating probabilistic forecasts and estimating probability distributions.
method Mathematical foundations and characterization of scoring rules.
result Important families of scoring rules and their applications in statistics and machine learning.
New method generates novel samples from closed-form diffusion models.
problem Closed-form SGMs memorize training data and cannot generate novel samples.
method Explicitly smooth closed-form score, use nearest-neighbor estimator.
result Efficient method generates novel samples without training.
Paper proposes a new method to speed up diffusion models.
problem High computational cost of sampling from diffusion models.
method Stochastic Runge-Kutta method for acceleration.
result Provable acceleration with reduced score function evaluations.
Unified approach optimizes neural network training for various metrics.
problem Training and evaluation of neural network binary classifiers often use different metrics.
method Combines differentiable approximation and probabilistic soft sets.
result Effective in optimizing for metrics like F1-Score across various domains.
Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadra…
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.
A novel framework quantifies uncertainty using proper scores for various tasks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for reliable applications.
method Proposes a general framework based on proper scores for epistemic, aleatoric uncertainty, and model calibration.
result Achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation for large language models and generative models.
A novel score-based method solves high-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations with improved accuracy and speed.
problem High-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations suffer from the curse of dimensionality, leading to numerical errors and slow sampling.
method Score-based Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) that fit the score function in SDEs, using three methods: Score Matching, Sliced Score Matching, and Score-PINN.
result The score-based method outperforms traditional Monte Carlo and vanilla PINNs in high-dimensional settings, offering faster sampling and reduced errors.
MultiwayPAM clusters LLM-as-a-Judge scores to reveal evaluator bias.
problem Revealing bias in LLM evaluations of text quality.
method Tensor clustering with MultiwayPAM method.
result Medoids reveal cluster membership of questions, answerers, and evaluators.
Critiques binary classification evaluation methods, advocating for proper scoring rules.
problem The dominance of top-K metrics and fixed-threshold evaluations in machine learning.
method Introduces a decision-theoretic framework mapping evaluation metrics to their use cases, and implements a clipped Brier score variant.
result Demonstrates the clinical utility of proper scoring rules through a Python package, exttt{briertools}.
Paper presents variational estimates for EBLVMs without structural assumptions.
problem Challenges in learning and evaluating EBLVMs due to intractable true posteriors and partition functions.
method Variational estimates of the score function and its gradient (VaES and VaGES) in a general EBLVM.
result The estimates can be applied to KSD and SM-based methods to learn EBLVMs and estimate Fisher divergence.
Proposes RDASS for better Korean text summarization evaluation.
problem ROUGE scores fail to capture semantic meaning in Korean text summarization.
method Introduces RDASS metrics and a method to improve their correlation with human judgment.
result RDASS metrics correlate better with human judgment than ROUGE scores.
Proposes a new method for data assimilation using closed-form conditional diffusion models.
problem Data assimilation for systems with complex, non-Gaussian probability distributions.
method Uses kernel density estimation to model joint distributions and leverages the score function for efficient evaluation.
result Outperforms ensemble Kalman and particle filters in nonlinear data assimilation problems.
Paper proposes an efficient causal discovery method with linear computational complexity.
problem Identifying causal relationships efficiently in large datasets.
method Approximate kernel-based generalized score function with low-rank technique and sampling algorithms.
result Significantly reduces computational costs while maintaining comparable accuracy.
A new activation function improves credit scoring accuracy for imbalanced datasets.
problem Imbalanced datasets in credit scoring lead to underestimation of misclassification costs.
method Introduces ASIG, an asymmetric adjusted Sigmoid function.
result ASIG-embedded classifier outperforms traditional classifiers across various imbalance ratios.
Generative models' evaluation scores can be misleading, leading to inflated grades.
problem Misleading evaluation scores for generative models.
method Analyzed and compared various scores for evaluating synthetic vs. ground-truth data.
result The Eden score avoids grade inflation and better aligns with human perception.
The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural interpolation between these two prominent risk measures, which constitutes a trad…
Propensity score matching improves fairness in machine learning models.
problem Bias in training data affects fairness metrics in machine learning models.
method Propensity score matching to evaluate and mitigate bias in test data.
result FairMatch significantly reduces bias in test data without sacrificing predictive performance.
A new method improves density ratio estimation efficiency and accuracy.
problem Density ratio estimation trade-off between quality and efficiency.
method One-step Score-based Density Ratio Estimation (OS-DRE) combining analytic and solver-free approach.
result OS-DRE offers a favorable balance between estimation quality and inference efficiency.
Evaluates local explanations using white-box models and log odds ratios.
problem Costly and subjective evaluation of local explanations.
method Benchmarking explanation techniques using log odds ratios.
result Explanation techniques' performance depends on model, dataset, data point, and normalization.
This paper introduces a more efficient method for estimating level sets with a stopping criterion.
problem Efficiently estimating regions where a function exceeds a threshold without exhaustive evaluations.
method Acquisition strategy with a stopping criterion for ε-accurate level set estimation. result The method satisfies ε-accuracy with a confidence level of 1−δ and guarantees on lower bounds of performance metrics. Unified framework for data-driven priors in Bayesian inverse problems
problem Bayesian inverse problems
method Unified framework using score functions
result Evaluation of four data-driven priors
Proposes sigmoidF1 loss for multilabel classification, improving performance metrics.
problem Lack of smooth, tractable loss functions for multilabel classification.
method Introduces sigmoidF1, a smooth F1 score surrogate loss function.
result sigmoidF1 outperforms other loss functions on various datasets and metrics.
The paper explores various forms of calibration scores and their implications for fairness.
problem The evaluation of probabilistic predictions through calibration.
method The authors organize three grouping choices and one agglomeration of group errors, providing a framework for comparing and creating new calibration scores.
result The study demonstrates that appropriate choices of grouping can provide notions of (sub-)group or individual fairness.
Improving subjective sound quality of enhanced signals is one of the most important missions in speech enhancement. For evaluating the subjective quality, several methods related to perceptually-motivated objective sound quality assessment (OSQA) have been proposed such as PESQ (perceptual evaluation of speech quality)…
Automates debiasing for large language model evaluations through Fisher random walk.
problem Rigorous and scalable evaluation of large language models.
method Semiparametric efficient estimator using Fisher random walk for weighted residual balancing.
result Efficient estimation of contextual preference scores for large language models.
This work interprets diffusion score matching using normalizing flows for better model training and evaluations.
problem Limitations of diffusion score matching when dealing with certain types of distributions.
method The approach involves interpreting the diffusion matrix using normalizing flows to provide better interpretation and usage of diffusion score matching.
result Diffusion score matching is equivalent to the original score matching evaluated in the transformed space defined by the normalizing flow.
ECS evaluates synthetic CXR images' distributional fidelity.
problem Evaluating synthetic CXR images' distributional fidelity under privacy constraints.
method Characteristic function transforms of feature embeddings.
result ECS uncovers clinically relevant distributional discrepancies.
CLEVER (Cross-Lipschitz Extreme Value for nEtwork Robustness) is an Extreme Value Theory (EVT) based robustness score for large-scale deep neural networks (DNNs). In this paper, we propose two extensions on this robustness score. First, we provide a new formal robustness guarantee for classifier functions that are twic…