HighD dataset captures naturalistic vehicle behavior on German highways for automated driving validation.
problem Current measurement methods fail to meet requirements for scenario-based validation of highly automated vehicles.
method Aerial perspective data collection fulfilling naturalistic behavior, quantity, and variety requirements.
result 16.5 hours of measurements from six locations, 110,000 vehicles, 45,000 km driven, 5600 lane changes.
Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including tractability, scenario relevance and robustness, we consider theoretical properties of…
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
In 2012, JPMorgan accumulated a USD~6.2 billion loss on a credit derivatives portfolio, the so-called `London Whale', partly as a consequence of de-correlations of non-perfectly correlated positions that were supposed to hedge each other. Motivated by this case, we devise a factor model for correlations that allows for…
Bottlenecks of binary classification from positive and unlabeled data (PU classification) are the requirements that given unlabeled patterns are drawn from the test marginal distribution, and the penalty of the false positive error is identical to the false negative error. However, such requirements are often not fulfi…
The theory of acceptance sets and their associated risk measures plays a key role in the design of capital adequacy tests. The objective of this paper is to investigate, in the context of bounded financial positions, the class of surplus-invariant acceptance sets. These are characterized by the fact that acceptability …
Extracts representative scenarios from large data panels.
problem Creating representative scenarios from large data panels.
method Two novel algorithms: one identifies new scenarios, the other selects known important data points.
result Efficient algorithms for consistent scenario-based modeling and multi-dimensional numerical integration.
Optimizes power systems with energy storage under uncertainty using scenario-based method.
problem Optimizing power systems with energy storage, intermittent renewable generation, and uncontrollable loads under uncertainty.
method Developed a novel solution method based on scenario optimization and strategic sampling to solve the chance-constrained optimal power system operation problem.
result The strategic sampling method significantly improves computational efficiency and data-driven convex approximation of power flow.
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy forecasting for power systems.
method Normalizing flows for direct learning of multivariate stochastic distributions.
result Normalizing flows outperform other deep learning models in probabilistic forecasting.
Paper extends learning theory to dependent data with uniform risk bounds.
problem Learning with dependent data sequences.
method Derives uniform risk bounds for dependent data using VC-dimension and Rademacher complexity.
result Standard classification risk bounds hold for dependent data, same as for independent data.
Reviews six finance topics, including 'radical complexity'.
problem None explicitly stated, focuses on research directions.
method Informal review and discussion of open questions.
result No specific key result mentioned, focuses on research directions.
This paper reviews data-driven optimization techniques for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in the era of big data and deep learning.
method Comprehensive review of data-driven distributionally robust optimization, chance constrained program, robust optimization, and scenario-based optimization.
result Identification of potential research opportunities in closed-loop data-driven optimization and scenario-based optimization leveraging deep learning.
Paper investigates learnability of OOD detection under various conditions.
problem Learnability of OOD detection under different scenarios.
method Investigates PAC learning theory, proves impossibility theorems, and provides necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Some conditions for learnability of OOD detection may not hold in practical scenarios.
RandomNet uses random search to design neural architectures without much human intervention.
problem Designing neural architectures without excessive human intervention.
method Random search strategy for multimodal neural architecture design.
result RandomNet performs close to state-of-the-art on AV-MNIST with minimal human supervision.
Paper investigates OOD detection learnability under various conditions.
problem Learnability of OOD detection under diverse and unknown test data.
method PAC learning theory applied to OOD detection, proving impossibility theorems and necessary conditions.
result Some conditions for learnability hold in practical scenarios.
In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatility ideally associated with a scenario based underlying firm debt. We show how to calibrate this model using a chosen number of reference Credit Default Swap (CDS) …
In this paper we propose a problem-driven scenario generation approach to the single-period portfolio selection problem which use tail risk measures such as conditional value-at-risk. Tail risk measures are useful for quantifying potential losses in worst cases. However, for scenario-based problems these are problemati…
Three scenarios for continual learning tasks are described and compared.
problem Difficulty in comparing continual learning methods due to different evaluation protocols.
method Three continual learning scenarios based on task identity and inference requirements.
result Different scenarios have varying difficulty and require different approaches.
This paper uses counterfactual thinking to improve multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Improving decision-making in multi-agent environments.
method Proposes a deep reinforcement learning model with counterfactual thinking to generate and evaluate multiple actions.
result Counterfactual thinking enhances agents' performance in multi-agent environments, leading to higher rewards and fair competition.
Generates multimodal safety-critical scenarios for robustness evaluation of decision-making algorithms.
problem Lack of comprehensive evaluation of neural network robustness under real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a flow-based multimodal scenario generator using weighted likelihood maximization and gradient-based sampling.
result Demonstrates improved testing efficiency and multimodal modeling capability compared to traditional methods.
Two autoencoding models learn latent traffic scene representations.
problem Learning latent representations of traffic scenarios.
method CNN and RNN models for spatio-temporal and temporal data, incorporating permutation invariance.
result Latent scenario embeddings can be used for clustering and similarity retrieval.
Active learning methods increase classification quality by means of user feedback. An important subcategory is active learning for outlier detection with one-class classifiers. While various methods in this category exist, selecting one for a given application scenario is difficult. This is because existing methods rel…
CLOPS improves deep learning for continuous physiological data.
problem Deep learning struggles with streaming, multi-sensor clinical data.
method CLOPS is a replay-based continual learning strategy.
result CLOPS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in continual learning scenarios.
This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are represented by a discrete scenario tree and the quality of the solutions obtained i…
YOLOv3 detects ships in real-time with high accuracy.
problem Real-time target detection in maritime scenarios.
method YOLOv3 model trained on a large dataset of marine vessels.
result Average Precision up to 96% for IoU of 0.5.
We develop a robust framework for pricing and hedging of derivative securities in discrete-time financial markets. We consider markets with both dynamically and statically traded assets and make minimal measurability assumptions. We obtain an abstract (pointwise) Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Pricing--Hedgin…
A new method for generating SPX and VIX risk scenarios using perturbed optimal transport.
problem Generating accurate risk estimates for SPX and VIX without full recalibration.
method A joint optimal transport calibration with perturbation methodology for sensitivities, combined with Skew Stickiness Ratio dynamics.
result The proposed method produces accurate risk estimates relative to full recalibration and is computationally faster.
Paper introduces a benchmark for predicting bankruptcy from text data.
problem Lack of a common benchmark dataset and evaluation strategy for unstructured data in bankruptcy prediction.
method Describes and evaluates several baseline models, including a bag-of-words model.
result A lightweight bag-of-words model performs surprisingly well, especially when considering data from multiple years.
This paper uses SLT to ensure learning guarantees in CD detection.
problem Lack of learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
method Adapting SLT assumptions to CD scenarios to ensure learning guarantees.
result Ensured learning guarantees in CD detection algorithms.
A new method optimizes complex engineering designs under uncertainty efficiently.
problem Optimizing large, uncertain engineering designs with limited resources.
method Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging.
result Significantly faster and more accurate optimization compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Paper proposes a learning-based sparse Bayesian method for accurate off-grid DOA estimation.
problem One-bit off-grid direction of arrival (DOA) estimation in a single snapshot scenario.
method Formulated off-grid DOA estimation model, used Sparse Bayesian framework, proposed Learning-based Sparse Bayesian approach.
result Improved computational efficiency and accuracy in off-grid DOA estimation.
Paper introduces a real-world image dataset for federated learning.
problem Lack of high-quality real-world data for federated learning.
method Created a dataset from 26 street cameras and 7 categories, implemented YOLO and Faster R-CNN.
result Benchmarked model performance, efficiency, and communication in federated learning.
The hypothesis that computational models can be reliable enough to be adopted in prognosis and patient care is revolutionizing healthcare. Deep learning, in particular, has been a game changer in building predictive models, thus leading to community-wide data curation efforts. However, due to inherent variabilities in …
MetaStackVis aids in choosing better metamodels for stacking ensembles.
problem Difficulty in selecting optimal metamodels for stacking ensembles.
method Interactive visualization tool to explore and compare different metamodels.
result Alternative metamodels significantly improve stacking ensemble performance.
Study optimizes GCS operations with deep learning and reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing storage performance in GCS with resource-efficient simulations.
method Introduces MLD model for fast flow prediction and well control optimization, combining deep learning and reinforcement learning.
result Achieves highest NPV while reducing computational resources by over 60%.
China's rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents' health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During the past decades, fluctuation in the international oil prices has imposed signi…
Graph Neural Networks improve volatility prediction in financial markets.
problem Traditional models struggle with complex, non-linear interdependencies in financial markets.
method Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines GCNs and GATs to capture dynamic graph structures.
result Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models in volatility forecasting, especially for short- to mid-term predictions.
Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to erosion from storm waves. Such coastal erosion is a concern, since the majority of …
GMM uses mmWave radar to classify traffic modes in poor lighting.
problem Classifying traffic modes in poor lighting conditions.
method GMM on mmWave radar point clouds.
result Good segmentation performance in pedestrian and car classification.
New framework optimizes complex systems decisions via simulation.
problem Optimizing strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in complex systems.
method Global-local metamodel assisted two-stage optimization via simulation.
result Framework efficiently searches for optimal decisions with unknown objective.
Paper compares hard and soft EM for BN learning from incomplete data.
problem Learning BNs from incomplete data using EM algorithms.
method Investigates the impact of imputation vs. belief propagation in hard and soft EM.
result A decision tree can guide practitioners in choosing the best EM algorithm.
The paper improves robust optimization by introducing margin theory.
problem Improving the reliability of solutions in high-dimensional robust optimization.
method Introducing margin theory to improve sample complexity and reliability of solutions.
result The sample complexity of a class of random programs does not depend on the number of variables.
FATE predicts user engagement on social apps with explainable explanations.
problem Accurate user engagement prediction for social apps with explainability.
method FATE, a flexible neural framework incorporating friendships, actions, and temporal dynamics.
result FATE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by 10% error and 20% runtime reduction.
On December 16, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event is following other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon, Linkedin or Pandora to cite a few. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga has become the bigge…
As algorithms are increasingly used to make important decisions that affect human lives, ranging from social benefit assignment to predicting risk of criminal recidivism, concerns have been raised about the fairness of algorithmic decision making. Most prior works on algorithmic fairness normatively prescribe how fair …
The paper presents a new framework for complex Support Vector Regression as well as Support Vector Machines for quaternary classification. The method exploits the notion of widely linear estimation to model the input-out relation for complex-valued data and considers two cases: a) the complex data are split into their …
New methods improve global optimisation for expensive functions using lookahead strategies.
problem Optimising expensive functions without gradient info in high dimensions.
method Nonmyopic acquisition strategies based on approximate dynamic programming.
result Nonmyopic methods outperform myopic approaches in various applications.
Random forest performance depends on SNR and covariate characteristics.
problem Understanding when random forests perform well.
method Systematic analysis of out-of-sample MSE for different SNR scenarios.
result Randomization effectiveness depends on SNR and covariate characteristics.