A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for Bayesian neural networks reduces inference difficulty.
A scalable method for Bayesian inference in large linear models.
A new method improves SVI for high-dimensional, poorly-conditioned distributions.
We propose a relaxation-based approximate inference algorithm that samples near-MAP configurations of a binary pairwise Markov random field. We experiment on MAP inference tasks in several restricted Boltzmann machines. We also use our underlying sampler to estimate the log-partition function of restricted Boltzmann ma…
Efficient algorithm finds fast Transformer models.
Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and…
Paper proposes first unlearning algorithm for MCMC models.
MIRA scores assess conditional distribution accuracy using joint samples.
Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian Computation' methods, but recent work suggests that approaches based on deep neural condi…
We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but their use is hindered by the computational cost of existing inference schemes. Ou…
Dirichlet process mixture models (DPMM) are a cornerstone of Bayesian non-parametrics. While these models free from choosing the number of components a-priori, computationally attractive variational inference often reintroduces the need to do so, via a truncation on the variational distribution. In this paper we presen…
Distributional reinforcement learning (DRL) is a recent reinforcement learning framework whose success has been supported by various empirical studies. It relies on the key idea of replacing the expected return with the return distribution, which captures the intrinsic randomness of the long term rewards. Most of the e…
We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an expectation-maximization procedure that achieves better accuracy in estimating the parameters of…
The seemingly stochastic transient dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference. In vitro neurons, on the other hand, exhibit a highly deterministic response to various types of stimulation. We show that an ensemble of deterministic le…
Cost-aware SBI reduces expensive simulations in complex models.
TRUST improves structure learning with tractable uncertainty.
HH-VAEM improves imputation and acquisition of missing data using hierarchical models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called \textit{Type II maximum likelihood} or ML-II). An alternative learning proced…
Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generali…
Thompson Sampling tackles USS, a sequential selection problem without feedback.
A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as expectations with respect to the posterior distribution. The key challenge is to approximat…
TARP tests accuracy of generative posterior estimators.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
Improved phylogenetic inference using VBPI-Mixtures for tree topology and branch length.
Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown great potentials in finding better neural network designs. Sample-based NAS is the most reliable approach which aims at exploring the search space and evaluating the most promising architectures. However, it is computationally very costly. As a remedy, the one-shot approach ha…
Two formulae estimate sensitivity of random vectors to distributional parameters.
Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of mod…
This paper reviews recent advancements in amortized Variational Inference.
We present the Mixed Likelihood Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), capable of modeling data with attributes of different types. The standard formulation of GP-LVM assumes that each observation is drawn from a Gaussian distribution, which makes the model unsuited for data with e.g. categorical or nominal a…
We build upon probabilistic models for Boolean Matrix and Boolean Tensor factorisation that have recently been shown to solve these problems with unprecedented accuracy and to enable posterior inference to scale to Billions of observation. Here, we lift the restriction of a pre-specified number of latent dimensions by …
Improves learning of spectral mixture kernels with approximate Bayesian inference.
Marich extracts high-fidelity models from public data with minimal queries.
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are a powerful modeling tool, able to represent any computable probability distribution. Unfortunately, probabilistic program inference is often intractable, and existing PPLs mostly rely on expensive, approximate sampling-based methods. To alleviate this problem, one could tr…
The study proves sampling-based GNNs can approximate training on full graphs with small subgraphs.
The highly variable dynamics of neocortical circuits observed in vivo have been hypothesized to represent a signature of ongoing stochastic inference but stand in apparent contrast to the deterministic response of neurons measured in vitro. Based on a propagation of the membrane autocorrelation across spike bursts, we …
SBBO optimizes complex spaces using sampling-based models.
Many machine learning applications are based on data collected from people, such as their tastes and behaviour as well as biological traits and genetic data. Regardless of how important the application might be, one has to make sure individuals' identities or the privacy of the data are not compromised in the analysis.…
Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of variational approximations inspired by nonparametric kernel density estimation. …
Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.
Variational Laplace improves Bayesian neural networks performance.
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
The study examines methods to correct measurement error in nutritional epidemiology studies.
Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions, which can be very harmful when this arises in safety critical applications. In …
This paper presents sampling-based speech parameter generation using moment-matching networks for Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based speech synthesis. Although people never produce exactly the same speech even if we try to express the same linguistic and para-linguistic information, typical statistical speech synthesis pr…
Variational Laplace improves Bayesian neural network performance without sampling.
Posterior sampling-based EI achieves sublinear regret bounds for expensive function optimization.
Attention-only transformers learn from context via two stages of inference.