Paper finds a method to compute fair risk-sharing rules.
problem Finding a fair and understandable risk-sharing rule.
method Established a one-to-one correspondence with a fixed point approach.
result Fast numerical method for computing AFPO risk-sharing rules.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
Paper proves existence and computation of Risk Budgeting portfolios.
problem Challenges to mean-variance framework sensitivity.
method Mathematical proofs and stochastic algorithms for risk measures.
result Existence and uniqueness of Risk Budgeting portfolios for various risk measures.
New method reduces computational cost for estimating PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem High computational cost in estimating PAC-Bayes bounds.
method General alternative method that makes computational savings.
result Reduces computational cost on the order of the dataset size.
Paper presents a neural network method for efficient xVA computation and risk management.
problem High-dimensional counterparty credit risk valuation and management.
method Neural network-based BSDE solver for coupled system of BSDEs for xVA.
result Efficient computation of xVA for high-dimensional portfolios.
Quantum algorithms for financial derivatives and credit risk.
problem Estimating credit risk and option pricing in realistic financial models.
method Developed a regime switching volatility model for financial markets, using a Markov chain to determine volatility parameters.
result Quantum algorithms can be applied to realistic financial models, bringing quantum computing closer to practical applications.
The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of clearing houses. The two main issues in systemic risk measurement are the compu…
Quantum computing speeds up risk analysis by efficiently sampling copulas.
problem Efficiently modeling tail dependence and risk measures in financial risk analysis.
method Quantum computing implementation of copula models for risk aggregation.
result The MB11 copula family is suitable for capturing tail dependence structures in risk factors.
Efficiently computes optimal policies for Entropic Risk Measures.
problem Optimizing risk-sensitive metrics in MDPs is computationally expensive.
method Uses Entropic Risk Measures and novel structural analysis for efficient computation.
result Achieves strong performance in various decision-making scenarios.
New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.
problem Improving risk assessment in multivariate settings.
method Inspired by univariate OCE, introduces convex, monotonic, cash-invariant measures.
result Numerical algorithms provide error estimates for computations.
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-CVaR portfolio we compute portfolio's Profit and Loss series and corresponded risk measures curves. Value-…
Paper defines and quantifies safety risks in deep neural networks.
problem Safety concerns in deep neural networks applied to critical sectors.
method Defines safety property, computes maximum safe radius, identifies new risk class, develops algorithm.
result Method achieves competitive performance in safety quantification.
The recent explosion in the amount and dimensionality of data has exacerbated the need of trading off computational and statistical efficiency carefully, so that inference is both tractable and meaningful. We propose a framework that provides an explicit opportunity for practitioners to specify how much statistical ris…
We consider the class of risk measures associated with optimized certainty equivalents. This class includes several popular examples, such as CV@R and monotone mean-variance. Numerical schemes are developed for the computation of these risk measures using Fourier transform methods. This leads, in particular, to a very …
New method reduces CVA-VaR computation complexity.
problem Efficiently estimating CVA-VaR for financial risk management.
method Multilevel nested simulation for probabilities.
result 3 orders of magnitude reduction in computational complexity.
This paper introduces a novel approach to measuring privacy risks in deep computer vision models based on intermediate outputs.
problem The exposure of intermediate results in hidden layers of deep computer vision models poses significant privacy concerns.
method The approach leverages Degrees of Freedom (DoF) to evaluate the amount of information retained in each layer and combines this with the rank of the Jacobian matrix to assess sensitivity to input variations.
result The proposed framework provides deeper insights into privacy risks associated with intermediate representations without requiring adversarial attack simulations.
Algorithm finds near-optimal VaR portfolios using MILP, improving risk management.
problem Computing optimal VaR portfolios is hard due to non-convexity and combinatorial nature.
method Formulates VaR portfolio problem as MILP, uses alternate formulations for guarantees.
result Near-optimal VaR portfolios with near-optimality guarantees.
The paper introduces a new method for risk measurement using weak optimal transport.
problem Risk measurement in insurance and financial contexts.
method Convex risk measures with weak optimal transport penalties, explicit representation via nonlinear transform, computational aspects, and approximations using neural networks.
result Explicit representation and computational methods for risk measures.
Systemic risk is concerned with the instability of a financial system whose members are interdependent in the sense that the failure of a few institutions may trigger a chain of defaults throughout the system. Recently, several systemic risk measures have been proposed in the literature that are used to determine capit…
In this paper we consider Fourier transform techniques to efficiently compute the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk of an arbitrary loss random variable, characterized by having a computable generalized characteristic function. We exploit the property of these risk measures of being the solution of an ele…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
Quantum MC simulations generate financial risk distributions efficiently.
problem High computational cost in traditional Monte Carlo simulations.
method Integrates quantum amplitude estimation with stochastic models for equity, rate, and credit risk factors.
result Quantum advantage in scenario generation for financial risk analytics.
Numerical challenges inherent in algorithms for computing worst Value-at-Risk in homogeneous portfolios are identified and solutions as well as words of warning concerning their implementation are provided. Furthermore, both conceptual and computational improvements to the Rearrangement Algorithm for approximating wors…
A new method for generating SPX and VIX risk scenarios using perturbed optimal transport.
problem Generating accurate risk estimates for SPX and VIX without full recalibration.
method A joint optimal transport calibration with perturbation methodology for sensitivities, combined with Skew Stickiness Ratio dynamics.
result The proposed method produces accurate risk estimates relative to full recalibration and is computationally faster.
Quantum algorithms accelerate financial risk computation.
problem Accelerating the computation of financial market risk.
method Quantum gradient estimation algorithms for market sensitivities.
result Significant reduction in resource requirements for financial quantum advantage.
Quantum computing offers financial industry new optimization and risk management tools.
problem Traditional computing limits financial industry's problem-solving capabilities.
method Structured review of quantum computing platforms, algorithms, and use cases.
result Quantum computing can enhance financial industry applications like optimization and risk management.
The paper calculates bonus values in complex insurance schemes.
problem Calculating bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance.
method Combines financial risk simulation with insurance risk methods.
result Efficient numerical procedures for bonus calculation.
A new approach to risk-sensitive reinforcement learning tackles computational challenges.
problem Computational challenges in estimating risk-sensitive policies for MDPs with finite state and action spaces.
method Proposes a new risk measure called 'caution' and uses a stochastic primal-dual method with KL divergence.
result Demonstrates improved reliability in reward accumulation without additional computational costs.
Defines computable learning for binary classification over metric spaces.
problem Defines computable PAC learning for binary classification over computable metric spaces.
method Provides sufficient conditions for ERM learners to be computable and bounds the strong Weihrauch degree of an ERM learner.
result Gives a hypothesis class that does not admit any proper computable PAC learner with computable sample function.
This letter assesses model risk in credit capital requirements and finds substantial tail risk.
problem Uncertainty in the probability of default and loss-given-default parameters in credit capital requirements.
method Models estimation risk in a simple way, analyzing two datasets and testing parameter dependency.
result Parameter dependency significantly increases tail risk in capital requirements, requiring substantial increases in regulatory capital.
Quantum method calculates risk contributions in credit portfolios efficiently.
problem Quantifying risk concentration in subgroups of a credit portfolio.
method Quantum algorithm for simultaneous estimation of multiple expected values.
result Quantum method scales better than classical methods for finely divided subgroups.
Systematic and multifactor risk models are revisited via methods which were already successfully developed in signal processing and in automatic control. The results, which bypass the usual criticisms on those risk modeling, are illustrated by several successful computer experiments.
The aim of this paper is to introduce a risk measure that extends the Gini-type measures of risk and variability, the Extended Gini Shortfall, by taking risk aversion into consideration. Our risk measure is coherent and catches variability, an important concept for risk management. The analysis is made under the Choque…
STORM enables edge computing for empirical risk minimization.
problem Training models on edge devices for streaming data.
method Online sketching for empirical risk minimization.
result STORM can estimate least-squares objective accurately.
Unified framework for drawdown risk computation under Markov models.
problem High computational challenges in drawdown risk metrics.
method Unified framework for computing five drawdown quantities under general Markov models, using linear systems and efficient algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms achieve same complexity as path-independent problems, validated by rigorous convergence analysis and extensive experiments.
New risk measures for financial and ESG risks using utility functions.
problem Assessing financial and ESG risks using traditional risk measures.
method Developed new risk measures based on utility functions.
result Properties of utility functions translate into properties of risk measures.
We maximize the expected utility from terminal wealth for an HARA investor when the market price of risk is an unobservable random variable. We compute the optimal portfolio explicitly and explore the effects of learning by comparing it with the corresponding myopic policy. In particular, we show that, for a market pri…
AI measures financial risk using linear quantile lasso regression.
problem Measuring systemic financial risk accurately and quantitatively.
method Linear quantile lasso regression with penalization parameter lambda.
result The Financial Risk Meter (FRM) is a valid measure of systemic risk.
Paper proposes risk-averse reinforcement learning algorithms.
problem Managing model uncertainty in reinforcement learning.
method Entropic risk constrained policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms.
result Demonstrates usefulness of risk-averse algorithms on various domains.
Faced with massive data, is it possible to trade off (statistical) risk, and (computational) space and time? This challenge lies at the heart of large-scale machine learning. Using k-means clustering as a prototypical unsupervised learning problem, we show how we can strategically summarize the data (control space) in …
This work reviews and tests risk allocation strategies in finance, highlighting Shapley allocation's advantages.
problem Risk allocation in financial institutions with non-additive risk measures and layered structures.
method Systematic review of risk allocation strategies, testing in simplified and realistic settings, including Basel 2.5 and FRTB.
result Shapley allocation offers the best compromise between simplicity, mathematical properties, and computational cost.
The paper explores new risk models for autonomous driving.
problem Risk management and actuarial modeling for autonomous vehicles.
method Examines technical difficulties and proposes a novel risk model.
result The new model better reflects real-world driving safety.
New methods estimate multivariate shortfall risk more efficiently.
problem Estimating multivariate shortfall risk is computationally challenging.
method Combines Fourier inversion and RQMC sampling in frequency domain.
result Fourier RQMC methods outperform existing benchmarks.
We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: 1) longer horizon …
The purpose of this paper is to design an algorithm for the computation of the counterparty risk which is competitive in regards of a brute force "Monte-Carlo of Monte-Carlo" method (with nested simulations). This is achieved using marked branching diffusions describing a Galton-Watson random tree. Such an algorithm le…
New versions of the set-valued average value at risk for multivariate risks are introduced by generalizing the well-known certainty equivalent representation to the set-valued case. The first "regulator" version is independent from any market model whereas the second version, called the market extension, takes trading …
Quantum algorithms improve VaR and CVaR estimation for financial derivatives.
problem Quantum advantage in financial risk analysis of derivatives.
method Two quantum algorithms: QSP and QSP-based approach.
result QSP-based approach requires fewer quantum resources for the same accuracy.
Different approaches to defining dynamic market risk measures are available in the literature. Most are focused or derived from probability theory, economic behavior or dynamic programming. Here, we propose an approach to define and implement dynamic market risk measures based on recursion and state economy representat…