A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Filters on order flow improve short-term market directionality.
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
In this study, we develop a deterministic nonlinear filtering algorithm based on a high-dimensional version of Kitagawa (1987) to evaluate the likelihood function of models that allow for stochastic volatility and jumps whose arrival intensity is also stochastic. We show numerically that the deterministic filtering met…
Study introduces new methods to estimate stock return rates.
Study introduces new methods to estimate equity and liability required rates of return.
Corporate bond factor research is flawed due to measurement errors and ex-post filtering.
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
We propose a new heavy-tailed distribution --- Gaussian-Chain (GC) distribution, which is inspirited by the hierarchical structures prevailing in social organizations. We determine the mean, variance and kurtosis of the Gaussian-Chain distribution to show its heavy-tailed property, and compute the tail distribution tab…
This paper investigates optimal trading strategies in a financial market with multidimensional stock returns where the drift is an unobservable multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Information about the drift is obtained by observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide unbiased estimates on the cu…
We investigate the planar maximally filtered graphs of the portfolio of the 300 most capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange during the time period 2001-2003. Topological properties such as the average length of shortest paths, the betweenness and the degree are computed on different planar maximally f…
Improved portfolio optimization using GAM factor models.
We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in th…
The Moscow Stock Exchange was inefficient for most of 2012-2021.
The paper analyzes statistical arbitrage using a factor model of equity returns.
New method quantifies market shocks and their effects.
Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns from high frequency data is complicated by asynchronous returns, market mi- crostructure noise and jumps. One technique for addressing both asynchronous returns and market microstructure is the Kalman-EM (KEM) algorithm. However the KEM approach assumes log-normal pr…
This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in recent periods than in past periods and much fatter for small-capitalization stocks …
This paper investigates a financial market where returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian drift process. While the observation of returns yields information about the underlying drift, we also incorporate discrete-time expert opinions as an external source of information. For estimating the hidden drift it is crucial…
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
Method introduces topological regularization using information filtering networks.
We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time evolution by modeling each low-dimensional latent embedding as a multidimensional Brownian motion.…
Study optimal trading strategies with expert signals in a hidden Gaussian drift market.
Cryptocurrencies show stable prices as a medium of exchange.
We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim empirical support for random leverage variation.
We propose a novel approach to sentiment data filtering for a portfolio of assets. In our framework, a dynamic factor model drives the evolution of the observed sentiment and allows to identify two distinct components: a long-term component, modeled as a random walk, and a short-term component driven by a stationary VA…
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equili…
A modular cash-overlay rule for allocating between a fixed growth-defensive risky sleeve and interest-bearing cash.
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
This paper considers a non-Markov control problem arising in a financial market where asset returns depend on hidden factors. The problem is non-Markov because nonlinear filtering is required to make inference on these factors, and hence the associated dynamic program effectively takes the filtering distribution as one…
FSinR is a comprehensive R package for feature selection.
Matched filters reveal optimal normalization methods for different market participants.
Metaheuristics optimize portfolios with pre-assignment and margin trading for better risk-adjusted returns.
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
This paper proposes a new portfolio allocation method using LLMs to outperform traditional strategies.
Study uses machine learning to predict stock prices, finds Kalman filter works well for low-volatility stocks.
Using a rolling windows analysis of filtered and aligned stock index returns from 40 countries during the period 2006-2014, we construct Granger causality networks and investigate the ensuing structure of the relationships by studying network properties and fitting spatial probit models. We provide evidence that stock …
This paper studies a 2-players zero-sum Dynkin game arising from pricing an option on an asset whose rate of return is unknown to both players. Using filtering techniques we first reduce the problem to a zero-sum Dynkin game on a bi-dimensional diffusion . Then we characterize the existence of a Nash equilibrium…
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
Dynamic trading strategies, in the spirit of trend-following or mean-reversion, represent an only partly understood but lucrative and pervasive area of modern finance. Assuming Gaussian returns and Gaussian dynamic weights or signals, (e.g., linear filters of past returns, such as simple moving averages, exponential we…
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence measurement noise) via techniques borrowed from random matrix theory. We calculate…
There is resurging interest, in statistics and machine learning, in solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return probability measures instead of point estimates. Recently, Conrad et al. introduced a sampling-based class of methods that are 'well-calibrated' in a specific sense. But the computational c…
Volatility forecasting and return prediction in high-frequency Chinese equity markets.
Transformer pre-training improves stock return prediction accuracy.
Gradient boosting detects insider purchases predicting abnormal returns in microcap stocks.
New method uses Gaussian ODE filtering to approximate likelihoods for fast ODE inverse problems.
The evolution with time of the correlation structure of equity returns is studied by means of a filtered network approach investigating persistences and recurrences and their implications for risk diversification strategies. We build dynamically Planar Maximally Filtered Graphs from the correlation structure over a rol…
Average Oracle outperforms DCC+NLS in portfolio optimization.