Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a comprehensive mathematical treatment of Reliability Options. Their value is first de…
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48 results for “reliability options”
CapOptix uses options theory to price capacity in electricity markets.
problem Traditional capacity market designs fail to account for risk and price shocks.
method Interprets capacity commitments as reliability options and uses Markov Regime Switching Process.
result CapOptix provides more accurate pricing of capacity premia compared to existing mechanisms.
We show how the prices of options can be determined with the help of double-fractional differential equation in such a way that their inclusion in a portfolio of stocks provides a more reliable hedge against dramatic price drops that the use of options whose prices were fixed by the Black-Scholes formula.
We propose a robust and stable lattice method which permits to obtain very accurate American option prices in presence of CIR stochastic interest rate without any numerical restriction on its parameters. Numerical results show the reliability and the accuracy of the proposed method.
Fast, Reliable, and Error-Bounded Option Pricing with Pretrained Neural Networks: A GJR--GARCH Studyq-fin.CP
Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing with neural networks
problem Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing
method Mixture Density Network
result Out-of-sample CDF error of
A new two-step LSMC method improves game option pricing accuracy.
problem Improving game option pricing accuracy using Monte Carlo methods.
method Proposed a two-step Longstaff Schwartz Monte Carlo approach with two regression models fitted at each time step.
result Our method produces more reliable results compared to the original LSMC.
Efficient and Accurate Calibration to FX Market Skew with Fully Parameterized Local Volatility Modelq-fin.PR
Model accurately calibrates FX market skew for exotic options.
problem Inconsistent prices from different models for FX derivatives.
method Fully parameterized local volatility model with numerical methods.
result Model provides reliable prices for daily trading.
LLMs translate natural language trading intents into correct option strategies using a domain-specific language.
problem Challenges in translating natural language trading intents into correct option strategies due to the complexity of option chain data.
method Introduce Option Query Language (OQL) as a domain-specific intermediate representation to abstract option markets into high-level primitives under grammatical rules. Use LLMs as semantic parsers and validate queries by an engine.
result Significantly improves execution accuracy and logical consistency over direct baselines.
We propose a hybrid tree-finite difference method in order to approximate the Heston model. We prove the convergence by embedding the procedure in a bivariate Markov chain and we study the convergence of European and American option prices. We finally provide numerical experiments that give accurate option prices in th…
Paper cleans option price datasets by removing outliers.
problem Unusual option prices in datasets.
method Statistical techniques to identify and remove outliers.
result Removes option prices violating no arbitrage assumption.
We address the information content of European option prices about volatility in terms of the Fisher information matrix. We assume that observed option prices are centred on the theoretical price provided by Heston's model disturbed by additive Gaussian noise. We fit the likelihood function on the components of the VIX…
SWIFT method speeds up Heston model calibration for European options.
problem Calibrating the Heston model for European options efficiently.
method Extends SWIFT method to Heston model, simplifying gradient computation.
result Extremely fast calibration, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Paper analyzes liquidity for everlasting options in DeFi, offering strategies to reduce costs.
problem Challenges of perpetual derivatives in decentralized finance markets.
method Dynamic proactive market maker model, simulations, hedging strategies.
result Liquidity providers can achieve net positive PnL with effective strategies.
KANOP uses KANs to efficiently price American options.
problem Efficiently pricing American options with limited data.
method Combines KANs with LSMC to estimate continuation value.
result KANOP provides more accurate option value estimates.
Study evaluates hedging strategies for S&P500 index options.
problem Improving returns and risk management in index option portfolios.
method Compared Black-Scholes-Merton and Variance-Gamma models for hedging strategies.
result Systematic option-writing strategies can yield superior returns compared to buy-and-hold benchmarks.
In this paper we propose an efficient method to compute the price of multi-asset American options, based on Machine Learning, Monte Carlo simulations and variance reduction technique. Specifically, the options we consider are written on a basket of assets, each of them following a Black-Scholes dynamics. In the wake of…
We consider the problem of option pricing under stochastic volatility models, focusing on the linear approximation of the two processes known as exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Stein-Stein. Indeed, we show they admit the same limit dynamics in the regime of low fluctuations of the volatility process, under which we …
A new method uses Gaussian processes and deep kernel learning to price high-dimensional American options efficiently.
problem Challenges in pricing high-dimensional American options, especially with excessive computational costs.
method Modified Gaussian process regression with deep kernel learning and sparse variational Gaussian processes.
result The method outperforms least squares Monte Carlo in high-dimensional scenarios, especially with Merton's jump diffusion model.
American options are the reference instruments for the model calibration of a large and important class of single stocks. For this task, a fast and accurate pricing algorithm is indispensable. The literature mainly discusses pricing methods for American options that are based on Monte Carlo, tree and partial differenti…
Valuation adjustments are nowadays a common practice to include credit and liquidity effects in option pricing. Funding costs arising from collateral procedures, hedging strategies and taxes are added to option prices to take into account the production cost of financial contracts so that a profitability analysis can b…
We study a hybrid tree-finite difference method which permits to obtain efficient and accurate European and American option prices in the Heston Hull-White and Heston Hull-White2d models. Moreover, as a by-product, we provide a new simulation scheme to be used for Monte Carlo evaluations. Numerical results show the rel…
Study uses SABR model to create implied volatilities from sparse quotes.
problem Creating accurate implied volatility surfaces from limited market data.
method Multitask Gaussian process with SABR model embeddings and hierarchical regularization.
result Model produces more accurate volatilities than single-task methods.
Machine Learning for Pricing American Options in High-Dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian modelsq-fin.CP
In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based …
We develop and study stability properties of a hybrid approximation of functionals of the Bates jump model with stochastic interest rate that uses a tree method in the direction of the volatility and the interest rate and a finite-difference approach in order to handle the underlying asset price process. We also propos…
In this paper, we implement a stochastic deflator with five economic and financial risk factors: interest rates, market price of risk, stock prices, default intensities, and convenience yields. We examine the deflator with different financial assets, such as stocks, zero-coupon bonds, vanilla options, and corporate cou…
Novel method for estimating currency option parameters with improved accuracy.
problem Improving currency option pricing accuracy and calibration process.
method Develops approximate formulas for two parameters in stochastic volatility models with exponentially-affine characteristic functions.
result Superior accuracy in parameter estimation for currency options.
We propose a novel algorithm which allows to sample paths from an underlying price process in a local volatility model and to achieve a substantial variance reduction when pricing exotic options. The new algorithm relies on the construction of a discrete multinomial tree. The crucial feature of our approach is that -- …
Framework to mitigate adversarial attacks by allowing classifiers to abstain.
problem Vulnerability of classifiers to adversarial examples.
method Adversarial training with a rejection option.
result ATRO framework improves classifier reliability against adversarial attacks.
REALFIN benchmarks financial reasoning by removing implicit assumptions, revealing model weaknesses.
problem Models struggle when implicit assumptions are missing, leading to incorrect answers.
method Developed a bilingual benchmark that systematically removes essential premises from financial questions.
result General-purpose models over-commit, while finance-specialized models fail to identify missing premises.
Algorithm learns binary function efficiently under arbitrary covariate shift.
problem Learning binary function under arbitrary distributions P and Q.
method PQ-learning algorithm using reliable learner with selective classification.
result Polynomial-time algorithm for covariate shift learning.
The paper proposes a method to improve random forest classification accuracy by weighting trees based on their decision path reliability.
problem Random forests' uniform voting fails to correct errors in regions where incorrect tree representations outnumber correct ones.
method The paper introduces using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and weight more reliable trees.
result Using the proposed method yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks.
New method improves accuracy in computing implied volatility.
problem Computing implied volatility from the Black-Scholes model.
method Adaptive gradient descent optimizers for numerical computation.
result More accurate results compared to close form approximation and Newton-Raphson method.
Modelling Crypto Asset Price Dynamics, Optimal Crypto Portfolio, and Crypto Option Valuationq-fin.RM
Despite being described as a medium of exchange, cryptocurrencies do not have the typical attributes of a medium of exchange. Consequently, cryptocurrencies are more appropriately described as crypto assets. A common investment attribute shared by the more than 2,500 crypto assets is that they are highly volatile. An i…
We study the problem of forecasting volatility for the multifractal random walk model. In order to avoid the ill posed problem of estimating the correlation length T of the model, we introduce a limiting object defined in a quotient space; formally, this object is an infinite range logvolatility. For this object and th…
The paper speeds up and improves pricing and calibration for the rough Heston model.
problem Improving the accuracy and speed of pricing vanilla options under the rough Heston model.
method Combining modified Adams method with SINH-acceleration method for Fourier inversion.
result The model implied vol surface is much flatter and fits market data poorly, indicating ghost calibration.
We propose a novel framework to identify sub-goals useful for exploration in sequential decision making tasks under partial observability. We utilize the variational intrinsic control framework (Gregor et.al., 2016) which maximizes empowerment -- the ability to reliably reach a diverse set of states and show how to ide…
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
The paper tackles video prediction by estimating conditional densities implicitly.
problem Temporal prediction uncertainty and high-dimensional probabilistic inference in natural scenes.
method Score-based conditional density estimation using sequence-to-image networks trained on a resilience-to-noise objective.
result The method handles occlusion boundaries and weights predictive evidence by reliability.
A new deep hedging framework improves efficiency and robustness.
problem Pricing and hedging of option portfolios with complex models.
method Neural model for training model embeddings using paths of advanced equity option models.
result The proposed method rapidly adapts to new market regimes through recalibration of a low-dimensional embedding vector.
A data-driven approach called CaNN (Calibration Neural Network) is proposed to calibrate financial asset price models using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Determining optimal values of the model parameters is formulated as training hidden neurons within a machine learning framework, based on available financial op…
Trend followers lose more often than they gainphysics.data-an
We solve exactly a simple model of trend following strategy, and obtain the analytical shape of the profit per trade distribution. This distribution is non trivial and has an option like, asymmetric structure. The degree of asymmetry depends continuously on the parameters of the strategy and on the volatility of the tr…
Tail Risk Management with Puts and Trend Following: A CVaR Framework for Crashes and Drawdownsq-fin.MF
This paper develops a CVaR framework for managing tail risks using puts and trend-following strategies.
problem Managing tail risks, especially crashes and drawdowns, requires different forms of protection.
method Develops a continuous-time CVaR framework that integrates long out-of-the-money put options and systematic trend-following overlays.
result Shows how convex crash protection and drawdown protection can be optimally combined in a mandate.
Improved pricing of vanilla options using modified Adams method and sinh-acceleration.
problem Calibration of rough Heston model leads to incorrect implied volatility surfaces.
method Modified Adams method and sinh-acceleration for Fourier inversion.
result Corrected implied volatility surface is significantly flatter and fits data poorly.
A new noise model for preferential Bayesian optimization using user anchors.
problem Inadequate assumption of homoscedastic noise in human-in-the-loop settings.
method Proposes a heteroscedastic noise model with anchors and a KDE uncertainty map.
result Risk-adjusted performance improvement and clarified anchor placement effects.
Low-precision training reduces computational cost and produces efficient models. Recent research in developing new low-precision training algorithms often relies on simulation to empirically evaluate the statistical effects of quantization while avoiding the substantial overhead of building specific hardware. To suppor…
In this paper, we implement and test two types of market-based models for European-type options, based on the tangent Levy models proposed recently by R. Carmona and S. Nadtochiy. As a result, we obtain a method for generating Monte Carlo samples of future paths of implied volatility surfaces. These paths and the surfa…
This research improves neural network uncertainty estimates and reliability.
problem Lack of inherent uncertainty estimates and variability in softmax scores.
method Ensemble-based Dirichlet modeling with method of moments estimator.
result Improved stability and predictive uncertainty estimates.
EX-DRL improves extreme quantile prediction for financial risk management.
problem Inaccurate estimation of extreme quantiles in loss distributions.
method EX-DRL uses Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) to model the tail of the loss distribution and Quantile Regression (QR) to improve extreme quantile prediction.
result EX-DRL provides more precise estimates of extreme quantiles, improving risk metrics reliability.