The paper predicts human-like driving behavior of other vehicles for safer AVs.
problem Safe and efficient interaction of AVs with other vehicles.
method Hierarchical inverse reinforcement learning considering both discrete and continuous decisions.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts both discrete and continuous driving behaviors.
Proposes a framework for predicting traffic situations involving multiple interacting agents.
problem Predicting the behavior of multiple interacting agents in traffic scenarios.
method Two-layer Hidden Markov Model (TLHMM) for situation distribution and learning-based dynamic scene evolution model for trajectory sampling.
result Demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy in highway ramp merging scenario.
A hybrid model combines Q-learning and PID controller for continuous vehicle control.
problem Learning unsatisfactory results with discrete action space in autonomous driving.
method Combining Q-learning and PID controller, using Quadratic Q-function approximation and action network.
result Autonomous vehicle successfully learns smooth and efficient driving behavior.
Single model performs well across different speaker scenarios.
problem Limited research on multi-scenario deep learning for multi-speaker separation.
method Combining data from different speaker scenarios into a single model.
result Single model outperforms scenario-specific models.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
Extracts representative scenarios from large data panels.
problem Creating representative scenarios from large data panels.
method Two novel algorithms: one identifies new scenarios, the other selects known important data points.
result Efficient algorithms for consistent scenario-based modeling and multi-dimensional numerical integration.
Methodology measures financial impacts using existing credit loss infrastructure.
problem Measuring the impact of financial scenarios on expected credit losses.
method Captures scenario effects through changes in default probabilities; uses existing provisioning infrastructure.
result Methodology validated through standardized climate scenario exercise in Canada and Quebec.
New risk measures based on scenarios for financial risk management.
problem Developing risk measures that are practical, scenario-relevant, and robust.
method Proposes novel scenario-based risk measures and studies their properties.
result Established axiomatic characterizations of scenario-based risk measures.
REDS improves scenario discovery from few simulations, reducing costs by 50-75%.
problem Discovering scenarios in data spaces resulting from simulations with limited computational resources.
method Uses an intermediate machine learning model to label data for subgroup discovery methods.
result Reduces the number of simulations required by 50-75% on average.
Proposes a new framework for environmental CVA with robust wrong-way risk.
problem Limited operational implementations of translating environmental scenarios into CVA.
method Three components: hazard rate mapping, tail generators, and KL divergence-based wrong-way risk bound.
result Nature CVAs can vary significantly across different ecosystem generators.
Study examines the scenario approach for robust optimization, focusing on nonconvex cases.
problem Robust optimization with nonconvex uncertainty sets.
method Scenario approach via i.i.d sampling, analysis of concentration of measures, asymptotic and finite sample guarantees.
result Obstruction to consistency in noncompact decision sets, finite sample guarantees for nonconvex problems.
This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are represented by a discrete scenario tree and the quality of the solutions obtained i…
Statistical depth metrics help identify risky power grid scenarios.
problem Identifying extreme scenarios for risk mitigation in power grid planning.
method Functional depth metrics for sub-selecting outlying scenarios.
result The proposed approach effectively identifies risky scenarios for operational risk mitigation.
Two autoencoding models learn latent traffic scene representations.
problem Learning latent representations of traffic scenarios.
method CNN and RNN models for spatio-temporal and temporal data, incorporating permutation invariance.
result Latent scenario embeddings can be used for clustering and similarity retrieval.
A new method using energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction.
problem Solving complex dynamic and stochastic programs, especially in energy systems.
method Proposes a new method based on energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction.
result Reduced scenario sets exhibit better statistical properties for energy distance than Wasserstein distance.
Develops a method for reverse stress testing in multivariate scenarios.
problem Reconstructing a multivariate stress scenario from a single exogenous shock.
method Maximizing conditional density under three distributional assumptions.
result Simulated scenarios are economically coherent and reproduce risk-reward asymmetry.
Adaptive stress testing for autonomous vehicles identifies failure scenarios using reinforcement learning.
problem Identifying potential failure scenarios in autonomous vehicle decision-making systems.
method Formulated as a Markov decision process, used reinforcement learning (DRL) to find likely failure scenarios.
result Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) finds more likely failure scenarios with fewer simulator calls than Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS).
CMTS synthesizes near-miss driving scenarios for safer autonomous driving tests.
problem Lack of near-miss driving data for testing autonomous driving algorithms.
method Generative model conditioned on road maps, using Variational Bayesian methods.
result Synthesized data covers more near-miss scenarios, improving trajectory prediction and risk handling.
Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.
Generates multimodal safety-critical scenarios for robustness evaluation of decision-making algorithms.
problem Lack of comprehensive evaluation of neural network robustness under real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a flow-based multimodal scenario generator using weighted likelihood maximization and gradient-based sampling.
result Demonstrates improved testing efficiency and multimodal modeling capability compared to traditional methods.
Adaptive framework generates challenging adversarial scenarios for autonomous vehicles.
problem Lack of efficient and adaptable evaluation methods for autonomous vehicles.
method Adaptive evaluation framework using ensemble models and nonparametric Bayesian clustering.
result Adversarial scenarios significantly degrade tested autonomous vehicles' performance.
Algorithm reduces historical expected shortfall computation by focusing on worst-case scenarios.
problem Computing the historical expected shortfall efficiently and accurately.
method Multi-step algorithm using Monte Carlo simulations to identify and reduce the number of worst-case scenarios.
result Non-asymptotic bounds for the L p-error of the expected shortfall estimator are derived.
Three scenarios for continual learning tasks are described and compared.
problem Difficulty in comparing continual learning methods due to different evaluation protocols.
method Three continual learning scenarios based on task identity and inference requirements.
result Different scenarios have varying difficulty and require different approaches.
Paper proposes a copula method to generate unfavorable VaR scenarios.
problem Creating unfavorable VaR scenarios for insurance models.
method Patchwork copulas to create unfavorable VaR scenarios with given marginal distributions.
result Demonstrated with a 19-dimensional real-life insurance losses data set.
Study optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.
problem Optimal timing to divest from assets with uncertain future scenarios.
method Smooth model of decision making under ambiguity aversion, optimal stopping problem with learning.
result Proves a minimax result reducing the problem to standard optimal stopping problems with learning.
Researchers validate ML scenario generators by checking dependencies and detecting memorization effects.
problem Validation of machine learning-based scenario generators differs from classical methods due to data-driven dependencies.
method Two novel validation aspects: checking dependencies and detecting memorization effects. Novel memorization ratio introduced.
result Validation methods successfully detect dependencies and memorization effects in ML-based scenario generators.
IDAS approach for autonomous vehicles to make decisions under merging scenarios.
problem Decision making for autonomous vehicles in merging scenarios with varying driver cooperativeness.
method IDAS approach using multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with curriculum learning and masking mechanism.
result IDAS approach can handle uncertainties in real-world scenarios and make strategic decisions.
HighD dataset captures naturalistic vehicle behavior on German highways for automated driving validation.
problem Current measurement methods fail to meet requirements for scenario-based validation of highly automated vehicles.
method Aerial perspective data collection fulfilling naturalistic behavior, quantity, and variety requirements.
result 16.5 hours of measurements from six locations, 110,000 vehicles, 45,000 km driven, 5600 lane changes.
Improved AST method finds more useful failure scenarios for autonomous vehicles.
problem Finding useful failure scenarios for autonomous vehicle validation is challenging.
method Adaptive Stress Testing with reward augmentation, modified to encode domain information.
result The modified AST method discovers a larger and more expressive subset of failure scenarios.
In this paper we propose a problem-driven scenario generation approach to the single-period portfolio selection problem which use tail risk measures such as conditional value-at-risk. Tail risk measures are useful for quantifying potential losses in worst cases. However, for scenario-based problems these are problemati…
We define scenarios, propose different methods of aggregating them, discuss their properties and benchmark them against quadrant requirements.
Method generates VaR scenarios for dependent risks under Solvency II.
problem Stress testing and VaR calculation for dependent risks.
method Monte Carlo simulation using product beta distributions.
result Direct scenario estimation of joint density from transformed data.
The paper proposes an efficient nested simulation design using likelihood ratio method.
problem Designing nested simulations with fixed outer scenarios and minimizing simulation effort.
method Proposes a bi-level optimization problem to decide inner replications and pooling strategies.
result Optimized design achieves $\cO(Γ^{-1})$ mean squared error of estimators.
MARCD uses generative scenarios to improve portfolio decisions during regime shifts.
problem Improving portfolio decisions under regime shifts and drawdowns.
method MARCD employs a Gaussian HMM for regime inference, a diffusion generator for scenario production, and a CVaR allocator with tail-weighted and crisis-aware components.
result MARCD reduces maximum drawdowns by 34% compared to baseline methods over 2020-2025.
We study the problem of determination of asset prices in an incomplete market proposing three different but related scenarios. One scenario uses a market game approach whereas the other two are based on risk sharing or regret minimizing considerations. Dynamical schemes modeling the convergence of the buyer's and of th…
Detects causal scenarios with inequality constraints among classical correlations.
problem Classifying causal structures and identifying those with inequality constraints.
method Using d-separation, e-separation, incompatible supports, and HLP condition.
result Resolved all but three causal scenarios with up to 4 observed variables.
Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) simulates realistic multi-asset scenarios for tail risk.
problem Simulating realistic joint dynamics of multi-asset portfolios for tail risk estimation.
method Designing a GAN that preserves Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) tail risk features.
result Correctly captures tail risk for a broad class of trading strategies and demonstrates strong generalization.
Consider an agent who enters a financial market on day t = 0 with an initial capital amount x. He invests this amount on stocks and the money market, and by day t = T, has generated a wealth W . He is given a convex class of probability measures (called scenarios) and a real-valued function (or floors) corresponding to…
Novel Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning framework improves traffic signal control robustness.
problem Lack of robustness and stability in adaptation for traffic signal control.
method Value-based Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning framework BM-DQN with fast-adaptation variation and DQN fast-update advantage.
result Framework adapts more quickly and robustly to new scenarios than previous methods.
We present a method to generate renewable scenarios using Bayesian probabilities by implementing the Bayesian generative adversarial network~(Bayesian GAN), which is a variant of generative adversarial networks based on two interconnected deep neural networks. By using a Bayesian formulation, generators can be construc…
We propose a hybrid algorithmic strategy for complex stochastic optimization problems, which combines the use of scenario trees from multistage stochastic programming with machine learning techniques for learning a policy in the form of a statistical model, in the context of constrained vector-valued decisions. Such a …
New method selects critical DER scenarios for distribution grid investment planning.
problem Determining critical DER adoption scenarios for risk assessment in distribution grids.
method Bayesian Optimization framework using Gaussian Process surrogates and Pareto-critical acquisition function.
result Statistical guarantee and significant speed-up over exhaustive search in selecting critical DER scenarios.
Paper introduces a new method for calibrating ESGs to both historical and forward-looking data.
problem Lack of a generally accepted methodology for calibrating ESGs to forward-looking information.
method Conditional Scenario Simulator framework for consistent calibration of economic and financial variables.
result Framework can embed various financial and macroeconomic models and demonstrate practical examples in frequentist and Bayesian settings.
Two new ensemble methods improve CATE estimation across various scenarios.
problem Estimating CATE in clinical trials to understand treatment effects heterogeneity.
method Proposed two ensemble methods: Stacked X-Learner and Consensus Based Averaging (CBA).
result Ensemble methods achieve good performance across diverse scenarios.
Paper proposes MCC to reduce class confusion for versatile DA.
problem Class confusion in DA methods limits their performance across different scenarios.
method Introduces Minimum Class Confusion (MCC) loss function to handle various DA scenarios.
result MCC significantly improves performance on diverse DA scenarios, including Multi-Source and Multi-Target DA.
Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations…
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
problem Quantifying worst-case and best-case performance in financial systems.
method Quantitative automata-based framework integrating event history automata and weighted finance finite automata.
result Exact calculation of upper and lower payoff bounds with interpretable witness event histories.
Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibi…