Optimal market making improves liquidity in prediction markets.
problem Efficient price discovery in prediction markets.
method Stochastic control framework for optimal market making.
result Optimal market quotes improve downside protection and profit.
Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes.
method Compared multiple neural architectures including Transformers, U-Nets, and variational autoencoders.
result Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, especially under sparse observation regimes.
Study compares methods for recovering latent risk-neutral densities from option prices, finding DeepONet effective.
problem Accurately recovering latent risk-neutral densities from option prices is challenging.
method Two benchmarks and various methods (lognormal mixture, DeepONet, quote transformer) are used to compare recovery accuracy.
result DeepONet outperforms other methods in reducing error on latent density recovery.
Market makers continuously set bid and ask quotes for the stocks they have under consideration. Hence they face a complex optimization problem in which their return, based on the bid-ask spread they quote and the frequency at which they indeed provide liquidity, is challenged by the price risk they bear due to their in…
Paper explores MM strategies that can refuse to quote or provide single-sided quotes.
problem Overcoming risks in market making due to changing market conditions.
method Adversarial reinforcement learning with new MM agent designs.
result Refusal to quote or providing single-sided quotes can improve MM performance.
The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.
problem Calculating risk-neutral default probabilities from market quotes.
method Using conic finance framework and Poisson process to formulate and solve the calibration problem.
result A unique solution for risk-neutral default probabilities and implied liquidity.
Axiomatizes the bid-ask market maker's quoting rule
problem Axiomatizing the quoting rule of a market maker
method Eight natural axioms and six environmental assumptions
result A unique three-parameter family emerges
Sharp bounds on crash probability and loss from option quotes.
problem Uncertainty in risk-neutral crash probability and conditional loss from option data.
method Adaptive hull algorithm to recover probability-loss polygon; linear system for identified set.
result Complete put wing lowers median transformed area by 5.4-18.2% relative to local strikes, filling 63.40% of benchmark.
Monotonicity of normalized implied-volatility coordinates under no-arbitrage
problem Monotonicity of normalized implied-volatility coordinates under no-arbitrage
method Elementary discrete no-arbitrage proof
result Monotonicity principle extended to Bachelier implied volatility
Study risk-sensitive market making with entropy regularization for better quote control.
problem Risk-sensitive market making with exponential utility and penalties.
method Entropy-regularized certainty-equivalent Bellman policies for discrete-time market dynamics.
result Proves convergence and performance bounds for entropy-regularized policies.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
problem Minimizing execution risk in multi-contract quoting sequences.
method Develops a diagnostic framework using order-flow Hawkes forecasts and CLF to select a stable reference contract.
result Event-history and LOB-state signals offer complementary views for reference-contract selection.
Proposes a framework to adjust quotes for informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
problem Informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
method Proposes a tractable framework to adjust quotes considering adverse selection and price reading.
result Market makers can adjust their quotes to better manage informational risk.
Unified theory for optimal execution through signal-adaptive quotes in limit order books.
problem Optimal execution in limit order books with signal-dependent factors.
method Develops a unified solution theory for four execution criteria, incorporating signal-dependent drift, price impact, inventory risk, and execution risk.
result Explicit formulas reveal optimal quoting strategies and show signal-dependent drift can significantly affect execution.
ARL and Hawkes processes improve market-making strategies with variable volatility.
problem Enhancing market-making strategies to adapt to varying volatility levels and self-exciting behaviors.
method Integrates ARL, Hawkes processes, and variable volatility levels; shifts from Poisson to Hawkes process.
result 4-action MM trained in low-volatility environment adapts to high-volatility conditions, providing stable performance.
The paper calibrates a model to market quotes efficiently and arbitrage-free.
problem Calibrating a model to market option quotes efficiently and without arbitrage.
method Piecewise-linear local variance function for efficient calibration.
result Arbitrage-free interpolation of class C2 achieved under one millisecond. A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
problem Managing inventory risk and latency risk in OTC FX market making.
method Dynamic programming and adiabatic-quadratic approximation to optimize quotes and rejection rules.
result Developed a method to optimize quotes and rejection rules for managing slippage risk.
The paper introduces a new method for risk measurement using weak optimal transport.
problem Risk measurement in insurance and financial contexts.
method Convex risk measures with weak optimal transport penalties, explicit representation via nonlinear transform, computational aspects, and approximations using neural networks.
result Explicit representation and computational methods for risk measures.
Study uses SABR model to create implied volatilities from sparse quotes.
problem Creating accurate implied volatility surfaces from limited market data.
method Multitask Gaussian process with SABR model embeddings and hierarchical regularization.
result Model produces more accurate volatilities than single-task methods.
The definition of time is still an open question when one deals with high frequency time series. If time is simply the calendar time, prices can be modeled as continuous random processes and values resulting from transactions or given quotes are discrete samples of this underlying dynamics. On the contrary, if one take…
In this paper, we develop a Markovian model that deals with the volume offered at the best quote of an electronic order book. The volume of the first limit is a stochastic process whose paths are periodically interrupted and reset to a new value, either by a new limit order submitted inside the spread or by a market or…
New models optimize quotes for automated market makers considering various price dynamics and demand variability.
problem Optimizing quotes for automated market makers in volatile price environments.
method Advanced models incorporating stochastic volatility, jumps, Hawkes processes, and Markov-modulated Poisson processes.
result Optimal quotes can be computed using numerical methods tailored to each model.
Two price regimes identified in limit order books: close and far from quotes.
problem Understanding the distribution and behavior of limit orders in limit order books.
method Analysis of limit order book data in dimensions of price, time, lifetime, and volume.
result Identification of two distinct regimes in the limit order book: close and far from quotes.
We examine the Foreign Exchange (FX) spot price spreads with and without Last Look on the transaction. We assume that brokers are risk-neutral and they quote spreads so that losses to latency arbitrageurs (LAs) are recovered from other traders in the FX market. These losses are reduced if the broker can reject, ex-post…
In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks log-returns than the simple correlation matrix. The two models considered are a multiv…
The paper analyzes optimal dealer strategies in agent-based market models.
problem Optimal dealer strategies in market models.
method Agent-based simulations extended from Chiarella's model to include liquidity providers.
result Dealers with greater risk aversion tend to perform better, but quote size effects are mixed.
We study the natural Kähler metrics on moduli spaces of stable oriented pairs in a very general framework, and we prove a universal formula expressing the Kähler class of such a moduli space in terms of characteristic classes of the universal bundle. We use these results to compute explicitly the volumina of certain Qu…
This paper develops a model of liquidity provision in financial markets by adapting the Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997) price formation model to realistic order books with quote discretization and liquidity rebates. We postulate that liquidity providers observe a fundamental price which is continuous, efficien…
We present a non-parametric method to estimate the discount curve from market quotes based on the Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse. The discount curve reproduces the market quotes perfectly, has maximal smoothness, and is given in closed-form. The method is easy to implement and requires only basic linear algebra operations…
The paper uses XAI to predict RFQ fulfillment accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting RFQ fulfillment for less liquid asset classes.
method Advanced algorithms like Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Bayesian Neural Tree.
result Improved accuracy in RFQ fill rate predictions.
Study Nash competition among dealers quoting prices to clients with unknown trading motives.
problem Adverse selection and inventory costs in dealer-client interactions.
method Analyzes one-shot Nash competition with unknown client type and inventory constraints.
result Unique symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and can be characterized by a nonlinear ODE.
ClauseLens uses reinforcement learning to price reinsurance treaties transparently and auditably.
problem Opaque and difficult-to-audit reinsurance treaty pricing practices.
method ClauseLens models treaty pricing as a Risk-Aware Constrained Markov Decision Process (RA-CMDP), incorporating legal clauses and generating interpretable explanations.
result ClauseLens reduces solvency violations and improves tail-risk performance, achieving 88.2% accuracy in clause-grounded explanations.
A large proportion of market making models derive from the seminal model of Avellaneda and Stoikov. The numerical approximation of the value function and the optimal quotes in these models remains a challenge when the number of assets is large. In this article, we propose closed-form approximations for the value functi…
Modeling market makers' quoting strategies to understand price impact.
problem Understanding how price impact arises from market makers' quoting strategies.
method Modeling market making as a dynamic auction using Stochastic Differential Games and finding Nash Equilibrium.
result The price impact function derived from market makers' strategies matches the Almgren-Chriss model.
This study examines non-retail trading on Polymarket, revealing unique behavior patterns and structural limitations.
problem Lack of address-level quote-lifecycle data in Polymarket prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of 13 million order-filled events using DBSCAN clustering on a six-feature fill-side vector.
result Non-retail behavior is uni-modal, contradicting previous archetypal hypotheses.
VolNP learns IVS from sparse quotes via meta-learning and SABR priors.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse option quotes.
method Meta-learning Neural Process with SABR-induced priors.
result VolNP outperforms SABR, SSVI, and Gaussian process on SPX options.
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
problem Arbitrage and bid-ask spread issues in short-dated options.
method Develops ARIES for filtering static arbitrage and SEDEx for density extraction.
result Robust density extraction across various market conditions and volatility smiles construction.
For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected financial markets in the last years led market players to revise this assumption and accommodate basis-swap spreads, whose remarkable widening can no longer be neglecte…
We present a stochastic-local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures able to describe forward-curve and smile dynamics with a fast calibration to liquid market quotes. A parsimonious parametrization is introduced to deal with the limited number of options quoted in the market. Cleared commodity …
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
Develops a model for bid and ask prices using stochastic control.
problem Modeling bid and ask prices of a European asset.
method Formulates a stochastic control problem, uses Girsanov theorem, Esscher transform, and dynamic programming.
result Derives equations to determine bid and ask prices.
Let X be a compact connected Riemann surface of genus g, with g≥2, and let OX denote the sheaf of holomorphic functions on X. Fix positive integers r and d and let Q(r,d) be the Quot scheme parametrizing all torsion coherent quotients of OX⊕r of degree …
Paper generalizes balanced metrics existence to singular cases using Quot-scheme limit.
problem Existence of balanced metrics and Gieseker stability of vector bundles.
method Quot-scheme limit of Fubini-Study metrics and Bergman 1-parameter subgroups.
result Existence of balanced metrics equivalent to Gieseker stability for singular cases.
The paper proposes a new algorithm for dealer markets that incorporates hedging and market impact.
problem How to manage risk and quote prices in dealer markets with limited internalization.
method Develops a mathematical model that allows dealers to hedge part of their inventory and adjust quotes based on inventory size.
result Dealers can internalize risk within a certain inventory range and externalize it outside of that range, optimizing their quoting strategy.
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional risk-neutral density (RND) directly from a cross-section of put option bid-ask quotes. More precisely, we propose to view the RND recovery problem as an inverse problem. We first show that it is possible to define restricted put and call operators th…
For a holomorphic vector bundle E over a polarised Kähler manifold, we establish a direct link between the slope stability of E and the asymptotic behaviour of Donaldson's functional, by defining the Quot-scheme limit of Fubini-Study metrics. In particular, we provide an explicit estimate which proves that Donaldso…
We study a financial model with a non-trivial price impact effect. In this model we consider the interaction of a large investor trading in an illiquid security, and a market maker who is quoting prices for this security. We assume that the market maker quotes the prices such that by taking the other side of the invest…
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
problem Large bid-ask spreads and missing quotes in crypto markets.
method Designs a novel calibration procedure for crypto options.
result Calibration is more robust and accurate than standard methods.
The equity risk premium is derived from SPX option chains using a model-light approach.
problem Estimating the equity risk premium from option data.
method Model-light approach using Gaussian mixture models and exponential tilting.
result The equity risk premium is calculated from the real-world probability densities inferred from option quotes.