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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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19395877 · May 202619922001200920182026
48 results for quasi-Bayesian aggregation

The paper analyzes a method for non-negative matrix factorization using quasi-Bayesian aggregation.

problem Understanding the convergence rate of non-negative matrix factorization with quasi-Bayesian methods.
method Derives an oracle inequality for an aggregated estimator under a broad class of prior distributions.
result The prior distribution significantly influences the rate of convergence in non-negative matrix factorization.

QB-Vine extends Quasi-Bayesian methods to high dimensions using vine copulas.

problem Efficiently predicting high-dimensional distributions without sampling.
method Recursive Quasi-Bayesian construction for marginals and vine copulas for dependence modeling.
result QB-Vine is a fully non-parametric density estimator with analytical form and convergence rate independent of dimension.

New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.

problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.

A new sequential method estimates Poisson means in streaming data, achieving optimality and efficiency.

problem Estimating Poisson means in a streaming, or online, framework.
method A quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton's algorithm for a sequential estimate.
result Established frequentist guarantees including consistency and asymptotic optimality.

New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.

problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.

Automatically differentiable estimation for BLP model reduces bias in demand estimation.

problem Estimating the BLP model with reduced bias and improved performance.
method Phrasing BLP as an automatically differentiable moment function, using CUE for estimation, and incorporating MCMC credible intervals.
result CUE estimation shows lower bias but higher MAE compared to 2S-GMM, with MCMC providing closest empirical coverage.

Develops quasi-likelihood analysis for marked point processes and applies it to Hawkes processes.

problem Analyzing multivariate marked point processes and their applications.
method Quasi-likelihood analysis for a general class of multivariate marked point processes, with focus on marked Hawkes processes.
result The quasi-likelihood analysis for marked Hawkes processes provides explicit conditions for ergodicity and Markovian transformation.

Turbo-Aggregate reduces secure aggregation time from quadratic to nearly linear.

problem Quadratic overhead in secure model aggregation for federated learning.
method Multi-group circular strategy, additive secret sharing, and coding techniques.
result Achieves O(NlogN)O(N\log{N}) overhead, compared to O(N2)O(N^2), for up to 50% user dropout.

This work examines aggregation functions in Deep Set learning.

problem The sensitivity of Deep Set networks to aggregation function choices.
method Investigation of alternative aggregation functions, including learnable recurrent ones.
result Learnable aggregations improve performance, reduce hyper-parameter sensitivity, and generalize better.

Aggregator learns optimal forecast aggregation in partial evidence environments.

problem Forecast aggregation in repeated binary event settings with expert forecasts.
method Bayesian experts with partial evidence, aggregator learns optimal aggregation.
result Optimal aggregation can be learned in polynomial time for a wide range of partial evidence environments.

Study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown dependence using group-invariance.

problem Aggregating statistical evidence under unknown and complex dependence structures.
method Develops a framework using group-invariance and permutation-based constructions to aggregate evidence across transformed datasets.
result Shows uniform improvement in critical values for single-batch aggregation over deterministic calibrations, adapting to unknown dependence structures.

The paper extends intensity models for limit order books using marked point processes.

problem Modeling intensity ratios in limit order books with state dependency and clustering.
method Developed a new model combining three multiplicative components for marked point processes.
result The new model outperforms other intensity-based methods in predicting market order signs and aggressiveness.

Aggregation challenges causal interpretation of IV estimators.

problem Aggregation of fine-grained components into an aggregate treatment variable.
method Characterization of conditions for identifying aggregate causal effects.
result Standard IV estimators cannot identify aggregate causal effects due to ambiguous dependencies.

SACP aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors to create more efficient uncertainty sets.

problem Combining predictive uncertainties from multiple models for efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification.
method SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction) aggregates nonconformity scores using a flexible symmetric aggregation function.
result SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.

The paper introduces a method to control false splits in tree-based data aggregation.

problem Identifying the correct subgroups to treat as a single entity in tree-based data.
method Introduces the 'false split rate' and proposes a multiple hypothesis testing algorithm for tree-based aggregation.
result The proposed algorithm controls the false split rate, demonstrating its effectiveness on stock volatility and taxi fare data.

Aggregates predictions from multiple regression models using random projections and kernel methods.

problem Combining predictions from multiple regression models to improve accuracy.
method Random projection of high-dimensional feature space, followed by kernel-based consensual aggregation.
result The aggregation scheme performs similarly to using the original high-dimensional features, with high probability.

Paper analyzes sparse aggregation in GLMs with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.

problem Sparse aggregation in GLMs for parameter approximation.
method Exponential weighted aggregation scheme with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.
result Sharp oracle inequality for Kullback-Leibler risk with leading constant 1 and minimax-optimal rate of aggregation.

New model scales GP regression for large datasets with consistent predictions.

problem Scaling Gaussian process regression to large datasets with inconsistent predictions.
method Generalized Robust Bayesian Committee Machine, combining predictions from distributed experts in a consistent manner.
result The new model provides consistent predictions that converge to the true underlying function as training size increases.

Algorithm optimally solves machine learning problems by aggregating and disaggregating data iteratively.

problem Optimization problems in machine learning.
method Iterative algorithm starting with data aggregation, followed by disaggregation in subsequent steps.
result Optimality, convergence, and optimality gap of the approximated solution in each iteration are proven.

Estimates variance function using aggregation methods in regression models.

problem Estimating variance function in regression models.
method Two-step procedure involving model selection or convex aggregation, using two independent samples.
result Consistency of the proposed method in L2 error for MS and C aggregations.

Paper proposes an algorithm to estimate state aggregation from Markov transition data.

problem Estimating probabilistic aggregation map from system's trajectory.
method Two-step algorithm: spectral decomposition and linear transformation of singular vectors.
result Sharp error bounds for estimating aggregation and disaggregation distributions.

Paper presents a novel approach for global feature aggregation in Graph Neural Networks.

problem Graphs lack a straightforward way to perform non-local feature aggregation like images and texts.
method Utilizes Latent Fixed Data Structure (LFDS) to aggregate feature vectors from local extraction.
result Proposed methods achieve competitive or better results with linear computational complexity.

New algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with continuous observations.

problem Inference in large populations with indistinguishable individuals and continuous measurements.
method Continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm extending existing discrete case algorithm.
result Efficacy demonstrated through numerical experiments.

A robust aggregation method improves federated learning's accuracy in corrupted settings.

problem Making federated learning robust to corrupted updates from devices.
method Robust aggregation oracle based on geometric median for constant iterations of non-robust averaging.
result The robust aggregation oracle outperforms classical methods in high corruption levels.

U-aggregation combines multiple models without labels for better risk prediction.

problem Challenges in selecting best model for new populations due to limited data and lack of true labels.
method U-aggregation, an unsupervised model aggregation method that integrates pre-trained models without observed labels.
result U-aggregation improves genetic risk prediction of complex traits using publicly available models.

BOA improves financial forecasting by combining expert models.

problem Challenges in choosing between multiple machine learning models for financial forecasting.
method Online aggregation of expert models using Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA) procedure.
result BOA leads to better portfolio performance, higher Sharpe Ratio, and lower shortfall.

MEVA aggregates model predictions to improve accuracy without needing model details.

problem Improving model accuracy by combining multiple models.
method Non-intrusive, data-driven framework that treats models as black boxes and optimizes aggregation methods.
result MVA outperforms MEA in estimating aggregated predictions, enhancing robustness and accuracy.

New aggregation method improves GNN robustness to structural perturbations.

problem Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that manipulate graph structure.
method Proposes a robust aggregation function with a breakdown point of 0.5, inspired by robust statistics.
result Improves GNN robustness by a factor of 3 on Cora ML and 5.5 on Citeseer, and 8 for low-degree nodes.

Non-affine aggregation rules cannot preserve monotonicity in convex learning.

problem Designing non-affine aggregation rules that maintain monotonicity in convex learning.
method Proving that monotonicity of aggregated gradients is preserved only if the aggregation rule is positively affine.
result Non-affine aggregation prevents steady convergence and substantially degrades algorithmic stability.

Fishnets improve set and graph learning with scalable, robust aggregation.

problem Learning informative embeddings for sets and graphs with scalable and robust aggregation.
method Proposes Fishnets, a new aggregation strategy for set-based learning.
result Fishnets achieve state-of-the-art performance on graph datasets with fewer parameters and faster training.

CAggNet improves medical image segmentation by fusing coarse and fine features.

problem Medical image segmentation accuracy and efficiency.
method Crossing Aggregation Network with nested skip connections and weighted aggregation.
result CAggNet achieves more accurate and efficient segmentation compared to existing methods.