A new probabilistic LGP method improves symbolic regression performance.
problem Traditional LGP's random search limits its effectiveness.
method Integrates SCFG with LGP, updating grammar based on selected individuals.
result Statistically better results on symbolic regression benchmarks.
New method integrates computer models from different disciplines with better predictive performance.
problem Integration of multi-disciplinary computer models with distinct complexities and computation times.
method Developed a linked deep Gaussian process (DGP) method that integrates individual Gaussian process emulators in a network.
result Linked deep Gaussian process emulators outperform standard LGP emulators and single DGPs fitted to the network as a whole.
Logistic Gaussian process (LGP) priors provide a flexible alternative for modelling unknown densities. The smoothness properties of the density estimates can be controlled through the prior covariance structure of the LGP, but the challenge is the analytically intractable inference. In this paper, we present approximat…
DMT enhances deep neural networks to better preserve data structures.
problem Preserving geometric, topological, and distributional structures of data in NLDR.
method Deep manifold transformation (DMT) using cross-layer LGP constraints.
result DMT networks outperform existing NLDR methods in preserving data structures.
Proposes a neural network method to improve consistencies in high dimensional data analysis.
problem Inconsistencies among dimensionality reduction, clustering, and visualization tasks in high dimensional data analysis.
method Consistent Representation Learning (CRL) neural network that performs NLDR transformations to satisfy LGP constraints.
result Improves consistencies in data interpretation through end-to-end task execution.
We present a novel certified and complete algorithm to compute arrangements of real planar algebraic curves. It provides a geometric-topological analysis of the decomposition of the plane induced by a finite number of algebraic curves in terms of a cylindrical algebraic decomposition. From a high-level perspective, the…
Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.
problem Handling uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Two approaches: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models.
result TensorFlow Probability library supports both approaches.
Stochastic programs simplify complex models with noise and nondeterminism.
problem Handling models with nuisance parameters, noise, and nondeterminism.
method Developed a reference implementation for stochastic probabilistic programs and inference.
result Efficient inference in models with noise and nondeterminism is possible.
Probabilistic models with deep neural networks now handle large data sets.
problem Historical constraints on probabilistic modeling.
method Variational inference, stochastic gradient descent, distributed computation.
result Probabilistic models can now handle large data sets and complex relationships.
Transformers interpret as probabilistic mixtures, offering new insights.
problem Understanding Transformers from a probabilistic perspective.
method Modeling Transformers as mixtures of Gaussian models.
result Transformers can be seen as maximum posterior probability estimators.
Deployable probabilistic programming for Go and other languages.
problem Adding probabilistic programming to mainstream languages.
method Design guidelines and Infergo implementation for Go.
result Infergo demonstrates performance and applicability in various use cases.
Improves probabilistic programming by analyzing program structure.
problem Inefficiency and limitations of single inference algorithms in probabilistic programming.
method Three novel techniques: static and dynamic analyses to adapt programs for more efficient inference.
result Improves probabilistic programming by making inference more efficient.
Paper introduces probabilistic module interface for complex models and inference.
problem Handling complex probabilistic models with latent variables and custom inference methods.
method Develops a platform-agnostic interface for encapsulating models and inference programs, allowing sound approximate inference algorithms for networks of modules.
result Sound approximate inference algorithms can be constructed for networks of probabilistic modules.
Probabilistic ML improves healthcare data analysis.
problem Insufficient understanding and incomplete data in healthcare.
method Examination of probabilistic machine learning models for healthcare challenges.
result Probabilistic models enhance healthcare data analysis and model building.
Paper proposes using backpropagation for probabilistic program learning.
problem Difficult to learn probabilistic models from data.
method Learning parameters of a probabilistic program using backpropagation.
result Trains probabilistic models similar to neural networks.
Birch automates probabilistic modeling using a Turing-complete language.
problem Automating the matching of probabilistic models with inference methods.
method Formally describes models as programs, revealing structure and form dynamically.
result Probabilistic programming languages can tailor inference methods based on model structure and form.
Probabilistic pseudo knots model uncertain knot diagrams.
problem Modeling knots with unresolved crossings.
method Assign probabilities to undetermined crossings; define probabilistic equivalence and extend classical knot invariants.
result Capture uncertainty in physical, biological, and computational contexts.
Paper introduces probabilistic search for structured data.
problem Difficult to extract relevant data from databases without domain knowledge.
method Probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes for flexible search.
result Users prefer probabilistic search results over standard baselines.
Synthesizes static analysis for probabilistic programs.
problem Optimize learning process, verify models, improve programming interface.
method Organize and analyze static analysis techniques for probabilistic programming.
result Future directions for improvement in statistical machine learning.
Pyro enables scalable AI models using probabilistic programming.
problem Developing complex probabilistic models for large datasets.
method Stochastic variational inference, PyTorch, Poutine.
result Pyro supports scalable AI models with high-dimensional data.
Edward simplifies probabilistic modeling and inference.
problem Analyzing empirical information with probabilistic models.
method Iterative process of model building, inference, and criticism.
result Efficient algorithms and model criticism techniques.
Paper introduces a new probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant analysis.
problem Lack of multi-modal structure consideration in existing class-specific methods.
method Formulates a probabilistic model that incorporates multi-modal negative class structure.
result Proposed model can be directly used for class-specific probabilistic classification.
Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribut…
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
problem Performance penalties for small steps in stiff systems.
method Probabilistic exponential integrators that include fast linear dynamics in the prior.
result Proven L-stability and probabilistic error accounting.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have …
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
MultiVerse uses importance sampling for efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic programming.
problem Efficient causal reasoning in probabilistic models, especially counterfactual inference.
method Native implementation of importance sampling in probabilistic programming, optimizing inference through query structure.
result Significant optimisation of inference process through careful design choices and query structure consideration.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
InferPy simplifies probabilistic modeling with deep neural networks in Python.
problem Complex probabilistic models with deep neural networks.
method User-friendly API for defining, learning, and evaluating models.
result Compact and simple way to define general hierarchical probabilistic models.
Probabilistic McShane's identity measures paths through a point.
problem Understanding the probabilistic nature of McShane's identity.
method Interpreting McShane's identity as a measure on path spaces.
result A probabilistic measure on path spaces.
PNCs balance tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic modeling.
problem Balancing tractability and expressiveness in probabilistic models.
method Introduce probabilistic neural circuits (PNCs) as a mix of Bayesian networks and neural networks.
result PNCs are powerful function approximators.
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
Overview of latent variable models in probabilistic frameworks.
problem Understanding the interconnectedness of latent variable models.
method Conceptual overview emphasizing compositional nature.
result Emphasizes the interconnectedness of latent variable models.
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
Paper proposes a framework for probabilistic load forecasting by integrating point forecasts.
problem Short-term load forecasting for power systems energy management.
method Two-stage framework: first stage for point forecasting, second stage for probabilistic forecasting using feature integration.
result Numerical results show effectiveness of the proposed approach in hour-ahead load forecasting.
Proposes a probabilistic optimization method for large-scale problems.
problem Large-scale regularized optimization problems.
method Develops a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm and uses Bayesian filtering.
result Makes it possible to solve large-scale problems using well-known Bayesian filters.
New probabilistic Newton-type algorithms for noisy optimization problems.
problem Noisy observations of cost functions and derivatives in nonlinear system identification.
method Probabilistic Gaussian process models and recent probabilistic line search routines.
result Probabilistic quasi-Newton approach delivers promising results on challenging problems.
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
Stan models are compiled to generative languages and extended with new features.
problem Lack of direct support for variational inference and deep models in Stan.
method Comprehensive compilation scheme to convert Stan models to generative languages, and extension of Stan with new features.
result NumPyro backend yields a 2.3x speedup compared to Stan in geometric mean over 26 benchmarks.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
New framework uses cohomology to analyze probabilistic distortions and arbitrage.
problem Analyzing probabilistic distortions and arbitrage in categorical filtrations.
method Transport cohomological framework, simplicial structure, loop effects, holonomy.
result Nontrivial probabilistic distortions and obstructions generated by loops.