System prioritizes rough sleeper alerts to improve outreach success.
problem Connecting rough sleepers with essential services efficiently.
method Data-driven approach prioritizing alerts based on likelihood of success.
result Increased outreach success rate by at least 15%.
Automated scoring prioritizes risky driving behavior in telematic auto insurance policies.
problem Identifying risky driving behavior in telematic auto insurance policies using machine learning.
method Bayesian approach using MCMC to model propensity of policyholders to undertake trips resulting in positive classification.
result The approach improves efficiency of human resource allocation in identifying risky driving behavior.
Detects anomalies in product health metrics at eBay for better alerts.
problem Detecting anomalies in unsupervised product health metrics at eBay.
method Developed a Moving Metric Detector (MMD) for anomaly detection and a point-wise ranking model for alert retrieval.
result Improves alert precision and avoids alert spamming in eBay production.
Recreating cyber-attack alert data with a high level of fidelity is challenging due to the intricate interaction between features, non-homogeneity of alerts, and potential for rare yet critical samples. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been shown to effectively learn complex data distributions with the inten…
Intrusion detection systems (IDSs) generate valuable knowledge about network security, but an abundance of false alarms and a lack of methods to capture the interdependence among alerts hampers their utility for network defense. Here, we explore a graph-based approach for fusing alerts generated by multiple IDSs (e.g.,…
Fraud detection is essential in financial services, with the potential of greatly reducing criminal activities and saving considerable resources for businesses and customers. We address online fraud detection, which consists of classifying incoming transactions as either legitimate or fraudulent in real-time. Modern fr…
The paper analyzes transaction fees on blockchains using a priority queue model.
problem Understanding and optimizing transaction fees on blockchain networks.
method An M/G^K/1 priority queue model is used to analyze transaction fees and user behavior.
result New insights into the dynamics of transaction fees and their impact on user behavior are provided.
Enhances multi-project scheduling with multiple priority rules.
problem Resource allocation in multi-project scheduling with limited time and resources.
method Simulation-based approach using composite priority rules.
result Increased probability of finding schedules with shortest duration.
Much work aims to explain a model's prediction on a static input. We consider explanations in a temporal setting where a stateful dynamical model produces a sequence of risk estimates given an input at each time step. When the estimated risk increases, the goal of the explanation is to attribute the increase to a few r…
Blockchain markets with paid-priority trading can lead to biased prices and reduced liquidity.
problem Discrete clearing and paid-priority in blockchain markets lead to biased prices and reduced liquidity.
method Developed a model to evaluate the viability of blockchain markets under discrete clearing and paid-priority.
result Paid-priority ordering induces endogenous selection, leading to biased prices and reduced liquidity.
To assure cyber security of an enterprise, typically SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system is in place to normalize security event from different preventive technologies and flag alerts. Analysts in the security operation center (SOC) investigate the alerts to decide if it is truly malicious or not. H…
Optimal trading strategy between CEXs and DEXs with priority fees and stochastic delays.
problem Managing latency risk in trading between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Developed a mixed control framework combining absolutely continuous controls with impulse interventions, allowing for stochastic execution delays and multiple pending orders.
result Optimal priority fee selection significantly outperforms non-strategic fee selection.
In many contexts, it can be useful for domain experts to understand to what extent predictions made by a machine learning model can be trusted. In particular, estimates of trustworthiness can be useful for fraud analysts who process machine learning-generated alerts of fraudulent transactions. In this work, we present …
Designs for allocating resources to prioritize needy applicants while estimating treatment effects.
problem Resource allocation under uncertainty with prioritized queues.
method Priority-queue randomization for treatment assignment and estimation of treatment effects.
result Identification of causal effects under different arrival and treatment assignment scenarios.
Integrates CNN and GRU for precise stock market risk alerts.
problem Predicting future stock market risks and providing early warnings.
method Uses CNN for feature extraction and GRU for time series analysis.
result Effective early warnings of future stock market risks.
Neural networks learn clean data patterns first, then noisy data, leading to improved performance initially but deteriorating later.
problem Improvement in prediction error on clean data during early training of neural networks with noisy labels.
method Theoretical analysis and experiments to explore the dynamics of gradient descent and the impact of clean and noisy data.
result Neural networks prioritize learning clean data patterns first, leading to improved performance initially but deteriorating later due to diminishing gradient dominance of clean samples over noisy ones.
In the past years, many new explanation methods have been proposed to achieve interpretability of machine learning predictions. However, the utility of these methods in practical applications has not been researched extensively. In this paper we present the results of a human-grounded evaluation of SHAP, an explanation…
Robust fuzzy clustering for EEG driver alertness with outlier detection.
problem Ambiguous state boundaries in multivariate time series data.
method RFCPCA, a robust fuzzy subspace-clustering method for MTS.
result RFCPCA improves clustering accuracy and characterizes uncertainty and outliers in MTS.
Proposes a new method for feature selection using Bayesian ID with intervention.
problem Feature selection in data with varying importance.
method Probabilistic model for interpolative decomposition with Bayesian inference and Gibbs sampling.
result The proposed Bayesian ID algorithm with intervention selects features with higher priority and comparable reconstructive errors.
Paper detects social media influencers affecting financial markets.
problem Impact of social media influencers on financial markets.
method Developed an early warning system for detecting suspicious social network activity.
result Discrepancy in meme and non-meme stocks' reactions to social networks.
Rubin LSST DESC uses AI/ML for dark energy research.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification and model robustness for AI/ML in DESC.
method Bayesian inference, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, active learning.
result AI/ML methods are essential but require rigorous evaluation and governance.
Study reveals AI's spontaneous topic changes in text prediction.
problem AI's inability to spontaneously switch topics like humans.
method Defined topic as Token Priority Graphs (TPGs) and analyzed self-attention models.
result AI can only switch topics if lower-priority tokens outnumber higher-priority ones.
Detects potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools to protect LPs.
problem Detecting and alerting LPs to potential depegs in Curve's StableSwap pools.
method Constructed metrics based on price and trading data, fine-tuned BOCD algorithm.
result Model detects USDC depeg 5 hours before price dip, with few false alarms.
We present RAPID (Real-time Automated Photometric IDentification), a novel time-series classification tool capable of automatically identifying transients from within a day of the initial alert, to the full lifetime of a light curve. Using a deep recurrent neural network with Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), we present th…
Simulates patient pathways to detect delayed rare disease diagnoses.
problem Delayed rare disease diagnoses in France, causing health system and patient harm.
method Probabilistic modelling of patient pathways to create an alert system.
result Alert system detects and refers wandering patients to CRMRs.
The paper proposes a method to infer multi-objective rewards from preferences.
problem Modeling preferences based on multiple, often competing objectives.
method Modeling priorities lexicographically and inferring multi-objective rewards from observed preferences.
result Lexicographically-ordered rewards provide a better understanding of preferences and improve policies.
Bitcoin reacts positively to USDT minting but not burning, showing state-dependence.
problem Understanding Bitcoin's response to Tether's supply changes.
method Analyzing Bitcoin's intraday price movements in response to USDT minting and burning events.
result Bitcoin's response to USDT minting events declines after 60 minutes and is influenced by investor sentiment and public announcements.
The paper models blockchain queues and trading dynamics, finding conditions for transaction priority and price impact.
problem Understanding and predicting price impacts in blockchain trading environments.
method Developed a probabilistic model for blockchain queues with adversarial scheduling, derived expressions for transaction priority and price impact.
result Conditions for transaction priority and statistical models for price impact in blockchain trading environments.
A new method for optimizing hierarchical multi-objective problems.
problem Symmetry and neglect of objective hierarchy in existing multi-objective methods.
method Priority-Constrained Descent (PCD) framework exploiting hierarchical objective structures.
result Pareto dominance and better per-objective performance with secondary progress guarantees.
Study callable convertible bonds with liquidity constraints, generalizing previous work.
problem Callable convertible bond problem with liquidity constraints.
method Introduced a new technique to handle non-ordered payoff situations.
result Complete solution to callable convertible bond problem with liquidity constraint.
Social media services such as Twitter are a valuable source of information for decision support systems. Many studies have shown that this also holds for the medical domain, where Twitter is considered a viable tool for public health officials to sift through relevant information for the early detection, management, an…
Study shows priority access in ELA auctions is less valuable due to volatility risks.
problem Impact of volatility on time-based transaction ordering policies.
method Single-round model with risk-averse bidders, tested using ETH price data.
result Priority access is discounted due to volatility and risk aversion.
We introduce a rich model for multi-objective clustering with lexicographic ordering over objectives and a slack. The slack denotes the allowed multiplicative deviation from the optimal objective value of the higher priority objective to facilitate improvement in lower-priority objectives. We then propose an algorithm …
Silence on suspicious stock market patterns persists despite lack of plausible explanations.
problem Suspicious patterns in stock market returns not explained or warned about.
method Analysis of correspondence and market data over five years.
result People aware of suspicious patterns chose not to alert the public.
Novel IRL method identifies suboptimal medical decisions in ICU data.
problem Identifying suboptimal medical decisions in clinical settings.
method Incorporates Inverse Reinforcement Learning with a pruning step to identify and remove suboptimal actions.
result Pruning step effectively identifies clinical priorities and values from suboptimal data.
As a type of pseudoinverse learning, extreme learning machine (ELM) is able to achieve high performances in a rapid pace on benchmark datasets. However, when it is applied to real life large data, decline related to low-convergence of singular value decomposition (SVD) method occurs. Our study aims to resolve this issu…
Deployment of machine learning (ML) algorithms in production for extended periods of time has uncovered new challenges such as monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality of a model in the absence of labels. However, such tracking is imperative to prevent catastrophic business outcomes resulting from inco…
The paper explores when to prioritize easy or hard samples in learning tasks.
problem Determining the optimal order of learning easy or hard samples.
method Theoretical analyses and experiments were conducted to propose and validate four priority modes.
result Four priority modes (easy-first, hard-first, medium-first, two-ends-first) can be flexibly applied.
Paper forecasts extreme Bitcoin volatility spikes using whale transactions and CryptoQuant data.
problem Forecasting extreme volatility spikes in Bitcoin market.
method Proposes Synthesizer Transformer model for forecasting.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art models in forecasting extreme volatility spikes.
CovidSens uses social media to track COVID-19 spread.
problem Accurate and timely dissemination of COVID-19 information.
method Social sensing to analyze online user data.
result Real-time COVID-19 spread tracking system.
A new model calculates optimal clearing payments in dynamic financial networks.
problem Determining fair clearing payments in networks with potential defaults.
method Extends Eisenberg-Noe model to multiple time periods, solving linear programs for optimal payments.
result Proves the model satisfies the priority of debt claims requirement and finds unique optimal payments.
Exploiting capacity of sewer system using decentralized control is a cost effective mean of minimizing the overflow. Given the size of the real sewer system, exploiting all the installed control structures in the sewer pipes can be challenging. This paper presents a divide and conquer solution to implement decentralize…
A new method prioritizes and recycles experiences for better reinforcement learning.
problem Improving reinforcement learning efficiency by prioritizing and recycling experiences.
method Double-prioritized state-recycled (DPSR) experience replay.
result DPSR achieved state-of-the-art results in Atari games, outperforming original and prioritized methods.
Database activity monitoring (DAM) systems are commonly used by organizations to protect the organizational data, knowledge and intellectual properties. In order to protect organizations database DAM systems have two main roles, monitoring (documenting activity) and alerting to anomalous activity. Due to high-velocity …
The devastating effects of cyber-attacks, highlight the need for novel attack detection and prevention techniques. Over the last years, considerable work has been done in the areas of attack detection as well as in collaborative defense. However, an analysis of the state of the art suggests that many challenges exist i…
Deep RL learns effective job shop scheduling rules from raw features.
problem Designing effective priority dispatching rules for job shop scheduling is challenging.
method End-to-end deep reinforcement learning using Graph Neural Networks.
result Agent learns high-quality dispatching rules from raw features and generalizes well to unseen instances.
The paper proposes a method to detect relevant model degradations without over-alerting.
problem Detecting meaningful changes in machine learning model performance over time.
method Sequential monitoring scheme accounting for temporal dependence and multiple testing issues.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in detecting relevant changes in model quality.
It is a challenging and complex task to acquire information from different regions of a disaster-affected area in a timely fashion. The extensive spread and reach of social media and networks allow people to share information in real-time. However, the processing of social media data and gathering of valuable informati…