A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimal trading strategy with predictor and costs, derived equations and shape.
Study tail risk in high-frequency finance using -regularized regression.
Study finds no evidence dual-class stocks are effective predictors.
Study identifies key trades predicting market movements.
Novel strategy for federated learning with privacy-preserving predictors and nonvacuous generalization bounds.
Study integrates ESG factors into home price predictions for U.S. cities.
Using non-linear machine learning methods and a proper backtest procedure, we critically examine the claim that Google Trends can predict future price returns. We first review the many potential biases that may influence backtests with this kind of data positively, the choice of keywords being by far the greatest culpr…
Study reveals jumps in crypto markets predict future prices.
Pricing a rental property on Airbnb is a challenging task for the owner as it determines the number of customers for the place. On the other hand, customers have to evaluate an offered price with minimal knowledge of an optimal value for the property. This paper aims to develop a reliable price prediction model using m…
Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
Over the past decade, the stellar growth of Indian economy has been challenged by persistently high levels of inflation, particularly in food prices. The primary reason behind this stubborn food inflation is mismatch in supply-demand, as domestic agricultural production has failed to keep up with rising demand owing to…
Optimal trading strategy adapts to signals in markets with price impact.
Study finds option volume imbalance predicts equity market returns.
Abstract reviews mathematical fairness in machine learning.
Optimal trading is a recent field of research which was initiated by Almgren, Chriss, Bertsimas and Lo in the late 90's. Its main application is slicing large trading orders, in the interest of minimizing trading costs and potential perturbations of price dynamics due to liquidity shocks. The initial optimization frame…
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with si…
We propose a 4-factor model for overnight returns and give explicit definitions of our 4 factors. Long horizon fundamental factors such as value and growth lack predictive power for overnight (or similar short horizon) returns and are not included. All 4 factors are constructed based on intraday price and volume data a…
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
With the proliferation of algorithmic high-frequency trading in financial markets, the Limit Order Book has generated increased research interest. Research is still at an early stage and there is much we do not understand about the dynamics of Limit Order Books. In this paper, we employ a machine learning approach to i…
Using an artificial neural network (ANN), a fixed universe of approximately 1500 equities from the Value Line index are rank-ordered by their predicted price changes over the next quarter. Inputs to the network consist only of the ten prior quarterly percentage changes in price and in earnings for each equity (by quart…
QBVAR improves oil price forecasting across quantiles, especially for downside risk.
The Black-Scholes Option pricing model (BSOPM) has long been in use for valuation of equity options to find the prices of stocks. In this work, using BSOPM, we have come up with a comparative analytical approach and numerical technique to find the price of call option and put option and considered these two prices as b…
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theo…
New method converts LVAs into linear projections for better understanding of complex models.
Publication bias skews asset pricing research findings.
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
Marketron model extended to option markets, solving incomplete market challenges.
We investigate whether the bid/ask queue imbalance in a limit order book (LOB) provides significant predictive power for the direction of the next mid-price movement. We consider this question both in the context of a simple binary classifier, which seeks to predict the direction of the next mid-price movement, and a p…
Paper presents LSTM models for short-term stock price prediction.
In this paper, we address one of the main puzzles in finance observed in the stock market by proponents of behavioral finance: the stock predictability puzzle. We offer a statistical model within the context of rational finance which can be used without relying on behavioral finance assumptions to model the predictabil…
Firm financials are well established as return predictors, being the inspiration for a large set of anomalies in the asset pricing literature. Employing topological data analysis we revisit the question of association between seven of the most commonly studied financial ratios and stock returns. Specifically the TDA Ba…
Study predicts Bitcoin volatility using Twitter data.
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
Study uses multiple online media to predict crude oil prices.
Paper proposes efficient methods for forecasting with large datasets.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new growth adjusted price-earnings measure (GA-P/E) and assess its efficacy as measure of value and predictor of future stock returns. Taking inspiration from the interpretation of the traditional price-earnings ratio as a period of time, the new measure computes the requisit…
Proposes a generalized XGBoost method for nonconvex loss functions.
A new pricing model reduces bias in insurance premiums.
The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single predictor that performs asymptotically as well as the best predictor in C, on any data.…
Study uses non-parametric method to analyze EU ETS price determinants.
Diffusion-VAE tackles multi-step stock price prediction with stochastic noise.
Tensor network surrogate for efficient option pricing in large portfolios.
LARA forecasts financial asset trends by refining noisy labels and extracting profitable samples.
This study improves stock price prediction for Apple Inc. using feature selection and regression models with technical indicators.
New bounds explain deterministic non-smooth deep nets without large Lipschitz constants.
This paper proposes a method to reduce complexity in GLMs with categorical predictors.