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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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163325488650 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for prediction smoothing

Self-distillation improves model performance by increasing teacher diversity and smoothing predictions.

problem Improving model generalization and performance through self-distillation.
method Interpreting self-distillation as MAP estimation and proposing instance-specific label smoothing.
result Self-distillation enhances model performance by increasing teacher diversity and smoothing predictions.

Post-estimation smoothing improves prediction accuracy with structural indices.

problem Using natural structural indices in machine learning without losing robustness.
method A post-estimation smoothing operator that separates from the original predictor.
result Post-estimation smoothing improves accuracy over original predictors under simple conditions.

We present a framework to train a structured prediction model by performing smoothing on the inference algorithm it builds upon. Smoothing overcomes the non-smoothness inherent to the maximum margin structured prediction objective, and paves the way for the use of fast primal gradient-based optimization algorithms. We …

2019-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Smoothing graphons improve link prediction in Bayesian SBM without increasing computational complexity.

problem Accurate modeling of exchangeable relational data with flexible and computationally efficient graphons.
method Introducing smoothing procedures to piecewise-constant graphons to create smoothing graphons, which allow continuous intensity values for relations.
result Smoothing graphons improve AUC and precision for link prediction in real-world data sets.

Stochastic gradient methods are dominant in nonconvex optimization especially for deep models but have low asymptotical convergence due to the fixed smoothness. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet effective method for improving stochastic gradient methods named predictive local smoothness (PLS). First, we …

2018-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Linear-Core Surrogates combine fast optimization and statistical efficiency in classification and structured prediction.

problem The trade-off between smoothness and margin-based losses in classification and structured prediction.
method Linear-Core (LC) Surrogates, a family of convex loss functions that stitch a linear core to a smooth tail.
result LC Surrogates achieve fast linear consistency rates while maintaining differentiability and strict HH-consistency bounds.

GPCDL uses Gaussian Processes to learn smooth templates from data.

problem Lack of smoothness in learned templates leads to overfitting and poor predictive performance.
method GPCDL incorporates Gaussian Process priors to enforce smoothness in the learned templates.
result GPCDL outperforms unregularized CDL in accuracy and predictive performance across various SNRs and applications.

Label smoothing improves generalization by controlling generalization loss.

problem Lack of mathematical understanding of label smoothing's effectiveness.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to show how label smoothing controls generalization loss in the label noise setting.
result Predicted an optimal label smoothing point that minimizes generalization loss.

This thesis predicts the distribution of smoothed zeros of random sections on line bundles.

problem Predicting the distribution of smoothed zeros of random sections on line bundles.
method Developing smoothing operators on discrete surfaces and computing the expected sum of indices on each face.
result Predictions on the distribution of smoothed section's signed zeros with multiplicity.

Fusion of robustness and uncertainty techniques improves adversarial defense.

problem Adversarial attacks on deep neural networks.
method Integrating uncertainty quantification into randomized smoothing for robustness guarantees.
result Improved robustness guarantees for uncertainty aware classifiers.

The estimation of probabilities of network edges from the observed adjacency matrix has important applications to predicting missing links and network denoising. It has usually been addressed by estimating the graphon, a function that determines the matrix of edge probabilities, but this is ill-defined without strong a…

2015-09-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper explains how tree ensembles improve predictions by smoothing and regulating smoothness.

problem Understanding why tree ensembles perform well despite their complexity.
method Interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing smoothers.
result Ensemble trees make more smooth predictions than individual trees and adjust smoothness based on input dissimilarity.

Spatial smoothing improves BNNs' accuracy, uncertainty, and robustness without increasing computational cost.

problem Large ensembles in BNNs increase computational cost and reduce performance.
method Spatial smoothing adds blur layers to convolutional neural networks to ensemble neighboring feature map points.
result Spatial smoothing improves BNNs' performance with fewer ensembles and enhances robustness.

The paper provides a uniform convergence bound for smooth calibration error and its relationship with functional gradient.

problem Limited theoretical understanding of learning algorithms achieving high accuracy and good calibration.
method Focuses on smooth calibration error, providing a uniform convergence bound and proving the relationship with functional gradient.
result Derives conditions for simultaneous classification and calibration guarantees in gradient boosting trees, kernel boosting, and neural networks.

In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inf…

2012-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Label smoothing improves model performance even with noisy labels.

problem Mitigating label noise in deep learning models.
method Examined label smoothing as a technique to cope with label noise and compared it to loss-correction methods.
result Label smoothing is competitive with loss-correction techniques under label noise and beneficial for distillation from noisy data.

Backdoor attacks make models predict a specific class near triggers, smoothing their decision function.

problem Understanding and mitigating backdoor attacks on deep neural networks.
method Defined a measure to quantify backdoor smoothing and detected other smoothing patterns.
result Backdoor attacks induce a smoother decision function around triggered samples.

Bayesian GAMs improve predictive performance for high-dimensional data.

problem Sparse regularization in GAMs leads to excess shrinkage and difficulty in selecting nonlinear effects.
method Developed a novel spike-and-slab LASSO prior and scalable EM-Coordinate Descent algorithm.
result Improved predictive and computational performance compared to existing models.

DMIDAS improves long-term forecasting accuracy in healthcare and electricity data.

problem Challenging long-term forecasting accuracy and computational complexity.
method Smoothness regularization and mixed data sampling techniques integrated into NBEATS architecture.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 5% on long forecasting horizons (1000 timestamps) compared to state-of-the-art models.

TATD predicts missing entries in time-evolving tensors by exploiting temporal dependency and sparsity.

problem Predict missing entries in time-evolving tensors with temporal dependency and sparsity issues.
method TATD (Time-Aware Tensor Decomposition) integrates temporal dependency and time-varying sparsity through a smoothing regularization with Gaussian kernel and alternating optimization.
result TATD achieves state-of-the-art accuracy for decomposing temporal tensors.

New method calibrates multi-class predictions efficiently without sacrificing accuracy.

problem Efficiently calibrating multi-class predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
method Formulated robust projected smooth calibration and new recalibration algorithms.
result Achieves strong guarantees for binary classification tasks with polynomial complexity.

Graphs can be fooled by small edge changes, but this work protects them.

problem Adversaries can manipulate graph data to mislead graph classification models.
method We introduce a smoothed graph classification model with a robustness guarantee.
result The smoothed model maintains consistent predictions under small adversarial perturbations.