Study of filtering and smoothing in submanifolds of Euclidean space.
problem Filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete time on submanifolds.
method Formal expressions and projection approach for prediction and smoothing.
result Agreement with classical results for prediction, differences for smoothing.
NCDSSM models irregularly sampled time series with improved imputation and forecasting.
problem Accurate modeling of irregularly sampled time series with missing observations.
method Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) with amortized inference for auxiliary variables and flexible dynamic state parameterizations.
result Improved imputation and forecasting performance on multiple benchmark datasets.
We define a family of kernels for mixed continuous/discrete hierarchical parameter spaces and show that they are positive definite.
This paper tackles convex-submodular minimax problems in mixed continuous-discrete domains.
problem Convex-submodular minimax problems in mixed continuous-discrete domains.
method Introduces new notions of optimality and proposes iterative algorithms combining discrete and continuous optimization.
result Characterizes convergence rates, computational complexity, and quality of solutions for convex and monotone-submodular minimax problems.
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
Hybrid RL method optimizes trading by balancing continuous and discrete actions.
problem Optimal execution in algorithmic trading with continuous-discrete action space.
method Combines continuous and discrete RL agents for better trading decisions.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods in trading efficiency and stability.
Stochastic domains often involve risk-averse decision makers. While recent work has focused on how to model risk in Markov decision processes using risk measures, it has not addressed the problem of solving large risk-averse formulations. In this paper, we propose and analyze a new method for solving large risk-averse …
The R package abn is designed to fit additive Bayesian models to observational datasets. It contains routines to score Bayesian networks based on Bayesian or information theoretic formulations of generalized linear models. It is equipped with exact search and greedy search algorithms to select the best network. It supp…
We propose a new framework of CatBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable. In particular, CatBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution (i.e., mean, location, scale and shape [LSS]) instead of the conditional mean only. Choosing from a wide range of continu…
We propose a new framework of XGBoost that predicts the entire conditional distribution of a univariate response variable. In particular, XGBoostLSS models all moments of a parametric distribution (i.e., mean, location, scale and shape [LSS]) instead of the conditional mean only. Choosing from a wide range of continuou…
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficie…
Many nonlinear extensions of the Kalman filter, e.g., the extended and the unscented Kalman filter, reduce the state densities to Gaussian densities. This approximation gives sufficient results in many cases. However, this filters only estimate states that are correlated with the observation. Therefore, sequential esti…
We introduce the thermodynamic variational objective (TVO) for learning in both continuous and discrete deep generative models. The TVO arises from a key connection between variational inference and thermodynamic integration that results in a tighter lower bound to the log marginal likelihood than the standard variatio…
New method uses continuous OT for fairness, outperforming discrete OT.
problem Fairness issues in machine learning models.
method Stochastic-gradient fairness method based on continuous optimal transport.
result Continuous OT method outperforms discrete OT when data is limited.
Unified framework for fair representation learning in machine learning.
problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models, especially when biased data representations lead to unfair predictions.
method Integrates nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction with deep learning to construct fair and informative representations, introducing a penalty term to enforce conditional independence between sensitive attributes and learned representations.
result Achieves a superior balance between fairness and utility, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art baselines on various data structures.
We develop a new Low-level, First-order Probabilistic Programming Language (LF-PPL) suited for models containing a mix of continuous, discrete, and/or piecewise-continuous variables. The key success of this language and its compilation scheme is in its ability to automatically distinguish parameters the density functio…
CGD improves diffusion models' out-of-distribution generalization.
problem Reliable sampling from high-value regions beyond training data.
method Context-guided diffusion (CGD) using unlabeled data and smoothness constraints.
result Substantial performance gains across various diffusion processes.
Decision trees are consistent for regression and classification tasks even with many predictors.
problem Consistency of decision trees with many predictors.
method CART and C4.5 methodology, oracle inequality, sparsity constraints.
result Decision trees and random forests are consistent for various types of data.
Generalized Precision Matrix for scalable estimation of nonparametric Markov networks.
problem Estimating conditional independence structure in general distributions for all data types.
method Generalized Precision Matrix (GPM) for mixed-type variables, regularized score matching framework for scalability.
result Validated theoretical results and demonstrated scalability in various settings.
This paper introduces a novel recalibration method for multivariate forecasts.
problem Multivariate calibration for potentially misspecified models.
method Local mappings between marginal probability integral transform values and observed space, using K-nearest neighbors or normalizing flows.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on currency exchange rate and childhood malnutrition data.
Graphical models provide powerful tools to uncover complicated patterns in multivariate data and are commonly used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we introduce the R package BDgraph which performs Bayesian structure learning for general undirected graphical models (decomposable and non-decom…
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
In this paper higher order mimetic discretizations are introduced which are firmly rooted in the geometry in which the variables are defined. The paper shows how basic constructs in differential geometry have a discrete counterpart in algebraic topology. Generic maps which switch between the continuous differential for…
Plug-and-play L-GM-AMP improves CS recovery for any i.i.d. source prior.
problem Efficiently recovering signals from compressed measurements with unknown priors.
method Deep learning with Gaussian-mixture model to approximate source prior, combined with learned denoising.
result L-GM-AMP achieves state-of-the-art performance without prior knowledge of source distribution.
A new unbiased Hessian estimator for expectation-based objectives.
problem Estimating Hessian for objectives with non-reparameterizable nodes.
method GO Hessian estimator for expectation-based objectives.
result GO Hessian provides unbiased and low-variance estimation of Hessian.
A new tree-based model improves uncertainty estimation in sequential optimization.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in sequential model-based optimization.
method Proposed a new ensemble of randomized trees (BwO forest) with bagging and oversampling.
result BwO forest outperforms existing tree-based models in various optimization scenarios.
Many real-world control problems involve both discrete decision variables - such as the choice of control modes, gear switching or digital outputs - as well as continuous decision variables - such as velocity setpoints, control gains or analogue outputs. However, when defining the corresponding optimal control or reinf…
This paper contains the technical foundations from stochastic differential geometry for the construction of geometrically intrinsic nonlinear recursive filters. A diffusion X on a manifold N is run for a time interval T, with a random initial condition. There is a single observation consisting of a nonlinear function o…
CRUs model irregular time series with continuous hidden states.
problem Handling irregular time intervals in sequential data.
method Continuous Recurrent Units (CRUs) that integrate hidden states via a linear stochastic differential equation.
result CRUs outperform methods based on neural ordinary differential equations in irregular time series interpolation.
This work considers the problem of learning the structure of multivariate linear tree models, which include a variety of directed tree graphical models with continuous, discrete, and mixed latent variables such as linear-Gaussian models, hidden Markov models, Gaussian mixture models, and Markov evolutionary trees. The …
A new method explains mixed features for predictive models using conditional inference trees.
problem Explaining complex machine learning models with mixed features.
method Proposes a method to explain mixed features (continuous, discrete, ordinal, categorical) using conditional inference trees.
result Our method often outperforms current industry standards in various simulation studies and real-world financial data.
Deep reinforcement learning boosts commodities trading performance.
problem Improving algorithmic trading performance in commodities markets.
method Formulated as a stochastic dynamical system, employed actor-based and actor-critic-based policy gradient algorithms with CNN and LSTM function approximators.
result DRL models increase Sharpe ratio by 83% compared to buy-and-hold.
Foundational brain dynamics model using stochastic optimal control.
problem Complex and noisy fMRI signals in brain dynamics.
method Continuous-discrete state space model with amortized inference and locally linear approximations.
result State-of-the-art results across various downstream tasks.
Tree ensemble kernels improve Bayesian optimization for mixed features and constraints.
problem Optimizing over mixed-feature spaces with known constraints.
method Kernel interpretation of tree ensembles as Gaussian Process prior, compatible optimization formulation for acquisition function, integration of known constraints.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods for mixed-feature spaces and constraints.
Adapts causal inference for high-dimensional treatments like text strings.
problem Predicting effects of interventions with many possible variations.
method Adapts classical causal estimators to high-dimensional treatment spaces, balancing moment errors.
result Shows high-dimensional treatment spaces can be addressed with a single model.
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.
problem Solving deep Gaussian process regression problems for irregular signals/functions.
method Represent DGPs as SDEs, solve using state-space filtering and smoothing methods.
result Rich class of priors compatible with irregular signals/functions.
Bayesian optimization tackles mixed discrete-continuous problems with Gaussian processes.
problem Optimizing problems with both discrete and continuous variables using costly simulations.
method Relaxing discrete variables into continuous latent variables, using Bayesian optimization, and incorporating compatibility constraints with Lagrangians.
result Comparative analysis of different mixed Bayesian optimization approaches.
New fairness criterion for risk-sensitive decisions in regulated industries.
problem Ensuring equitable outcomes in risk-sensitive decision-making.
method Marginal fairness for generalized distortion risk measures, two-step decision-making process.
result Ensures fairness in decision-making under risk measures, regardless of protected attributes.
Paper proposes scalable method for analyzing multi-omic data.
problem Integrating high-dimensional multi-omic data for cancer subtyping.
method Mixed graphical model approach using Birth-Death MCMC algorithm.
result Our method outperforms LASSO and standard BDMCMC in computational efficiency and model selection accuracy.
Unsupervised framework captures acquisition variability in structural connectomes.
problem Acquisition differences across sites, scanners, and protocols complicate structural connectome analysis.
method An unsupervised framework using architectural annealing to balance discrete and continuous latent variables.
result Architectural annealing produces stronger site learning than baseline models.
DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.
problem Inferring causal direction between continuous and discrete variables from observational data.
method Density Ratio-based Causal Discovery (DRCD) method.
result DRCD identifies causal direction between continuous and discrete variables using density ratio monotonicity.
Deep reinforcement learning improves trading performance in volatile energy markets.
problem Volatility and low signal-to-noise ratios in energy markets.
method Formalized trading as a stochastic system, developed reactive and adaptive algorithms, used deep neural networks.
result Deep reinforcement learning models outperform buy-and-hold strategy with an 83% higher Sharpe ratio.