Study on predictable forward processes in trading without frequent evaluations.
problem Trading performance evaluation times not matching trading times.
method Solving a linear functional equation to construct predictable forward processes.
result Predictable forward processes are inherently myopic and optimal strategies do not use future information.
We introduce a new class of forward performance processes that are endogenous and predictable with regards to an underlying market information set and, furthermore, are updated at discrete times. We analyze in detail a binomial model whose parameters are random and updated dynamically as the market evolves. We show tha…
Improves predictions by integrating forward-looking views into dynamic factor models.
problem Poor forecasts from historical data when dynamics change.
method Combines historical data with forward-looking views using a dynamic factor model.
result Derives optimal portfolio strategies influenced by both myopic and intertemporal factors.
Established PFPPs in complete markets, solving integral equations.
problem Existence of Predictable Forward Performance Processes in complete markets.
method Solving a one-period integral equation using Fourier transform for tempered distributions.
result Closed-form solutions for PFPPs with inverse marginal functions that are completely monotonic.
A hybrid physics-ML model predicts FO water flux with high accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in accurately modeling Forward Osmosis water flux due to complex internal mass transfer phenomena.
method Robust Hybrid Physics-ML framework using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for uncertainty-aware Jw prediction.
result Achieved a state-of-the-art MAPE of 0.26% and R2 of 0.999 on independent test data.
Develops a new class of forward performance processes for investment pools.
problem Investment performance in market models with continuous semimartingale stock prices.
method Constructs a broad class of forward performance processes with power mixture initial conditions.
result Characterizes and derives properties of two-power mixture forward performance processes.
The paper establishes convergence guarantees for SGMs in 2-Wasserstein distance.
problem Establishing convergence guarantees for SGMs in 2-Wasserstein distance.
method Assuming accurate score estimates and smooth log-concave data distribution, the paper specializes its result to several concrete SGMs with specific forward processes modeled by stochastic differential equations.
result Obtained an upper bound on the iteration complexity for each model and a lower bound for Gaussian data distribution.
A reliable controller is critical and essential for the execution of safe and smooth maneuvers of an autonomous vehicle.The controller must be robust to external disturbances, such as road surface, weather, and wind conditions, and so on.It also needs to deal with the internal parametric variations of vehicle sub-syste…
Machine learning speeds up GPR simulations.
problem Computational demands of simulating practical GPR problems.
method Automatic ML-based forward solver framework using gprMax.
result Near-real-time GPR simulations achieved.
Study uses AI and ML to predict and optimize corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys.
problem Corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys in marine environments.
method Investigated two ML approaches: direct and inverse, using Random Forest, neural network, and Gaussian Process Regression.
result Gaussian Process Regression with hybrid kernel functions provided superior predictive performance.
Develops a forward variable selection method for interpretable random forest models.
problem Interpreting high-dimensional non-parametric models like random forests.
method Forward variable selection using CRPS as loss function, with hypothesis testing at each step.
result Method selects a smaller set of variables that optimizes predictive performance.
This paper improves SGMs by using a predictor-corrector scheme to converge faster.
problem Theoretical and practical limitations of existing SGMs when T1o∞. method Integrates a predictor-corrector scheme after the forward process to converge in finite time.
result Convergence guarantees for SGMs require only a fixed finite time T1. Forward-prediction models enhance physical reasoning, but only for specific tasks.
problem Improving physical reasoning in complex tasks involving many objects.
method Incorporated forward-prediction models into simple physical-reasoning agents and evaluated their performance on the PHYRE benchmark.
result Forward-prediction models improve physical-reasoning performance, especially on complex tasks, but generalization to new task templates is challenging.
Predictive rate-distortion analysis suffers from the curse of dimensionality: clustering arbitrarily long pasts to retain information about arbitrarily long futures requires resources that typically grow exponentially with length. The challenge is compounded for infinite-order Markov processes, since conditioning on fi…
Deep neural networks and Gaussian processes are shown to be equivalent through activation functions.
problem Understanding the relationship between neural networks and Gaussian processes.
method Developing an equivalence theory based on activation functions and kernels.
result Models can be seen as neural networks with improved uncertainty prediction or deep Gaussian processes with increased accuracy.
New PFPPs based on rank-dependent utility for better performance control.
problem Improving performance prediction in systems with short-term control.
method Introduces rank-dependent PFPPs, solves integral equations via Volterra theory.
result Existence of rank-dependent PFPPs under specific market conditions.
Neural Flow Diffusion Models improve diffusion models by learning flexible forward processes.
problem Fixed forward processes in diffusion models complicate reverse processes and increase inference costs.
method Introduces NFDM, a framework supporting flexible forward processes and a novel parameterization technique.
result Demonstrates strong performance in likelihood estimation and learning generative dynamics.
We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realized as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipović. The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite dimensional Lévy proces…
In an incomplete market, with incompleteness stemming from stochastic factors imperfectly correlated with the underlying stocks, we derive representations of homothetic (power, exponential and logarithmic) forward performance processes in factor-form using ergodic BSDE. We also develop a connection between the forward …
New framework for portfolio management using binomial markets and game theory.
problem Investment behavior in competitive and incomplete markets.
method Introduces PRFPP framework, constructs and analyzes for both finite and mean field games.
result Relative performance concerns do not always lead to more risky asset investment.
We propose a novel method to forecast the future from the present using time-reversed data.
problem Forecasting the future from past data, exploiting temporal asymmetry.
method Retrodictive forecasting via inverse MAP optimization over a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method successfully predicts future events in time-reversible and irreversible processes.
KINet learns object interactions without supervision for robotic pushing.
problem Lack of supervised data for object-centric forward prediction.
method End-to-end unsupervised framework using keypoint representation and contrastive estimation.
result Automatically generalizes to unseen scenarios and accurately predicts future states.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
The article constructs a forward utility for markets with multiple default risks.
problem Characterizing forward performance processes in a market with multiple default risks.
method Using Jacod-Pham decomposition and recursive BSDEs, the article constructs a forward utility and proves its existence and uniqueness.
result The article identifies the risk-sensitive long-run growth rate of the optimal wealth process in a stochastic factor model with ergodic dynamics.
This paper deals with forward performances of HARA type. Precisely, for a market model in which stock price processes are modeled by a locally bounded d-dimensional semimartingale, we elaborate a complete and explicit characterization for this type of forward utilities. Furthermore, the optimal portfolios for each of…
A new model captures forward curve dynamics with stochastic volatility.
problem Modeling continuous-time evolution of forward curves in financial markets.
method Affine stochastic volatility model with modulated dynamics.
result Model allows for maturity-specific risk and volatility clustering.
The paper analyzes the training dynamics of a transformer for next-token prediction.
problem Understanding the non-asymptotic performance of transformers in next-token prediction.
method Characterizes training dataset properties, designs a two-stage training algorithm, and analyzes attention gradient properties.
result Trained transformers converge sub-linearly to max-margin solutions and exhibit linear convergence in cross-entropy loss.
PBI inference may not be calibrated if predictive model is inaccurate.
problem Uncertainty quantification in PBI may be unreliable if the predictive model is not accurate.
method Predictive Bayesian inference with a forward predictive model.
result Posterior concentration depends on the predictive model, leading to potential calibration issues.
This paper proves existence of the long bond, long forward measure and long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) of Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models in the function space framework of Filipovic (2001). A sufficient condition on the wei…
A new diffusion model improves time-series forecasting by preserving seasonal patterns.
problem Improving time-series forecasting accuracy, especially for seasonal data.
method A forward diffusion process that decomposes signals into spectral components, altering only the diffusion process.
result The method maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies, improving long-term pattern recovery.
New method for interpreting non-linear models using forward marginal effects.
problem Interpreting non-linear models' feature effects is challenging.
method Introducing forward marginal effects and partitioning feature space for better interpretation.
result Improved interpretation of non-linear prediction functions.
We propose and investigate two model classes for forward power price dynamics, based on continuous branching processes with immigration, and on Hawkes processes with exponential kernel, respectively. The models proposed exhibit jumps clustering features. Models of this kind have been already proposed for the spot price…
DPConvCNP learns to predict private data accurately and privately.
problem Balancing privacy and accuracy in machine learning models.
method Meta-learning combined with improved DP mechanism.
result DPConvCNP outperforms DP GP baseline, especially on non-Gaussian data.
Paper improves k-NN predictive performance with efficient variable selection.
problem Improving predictive performance of k-NN models. method Efficient forward selection of predictor variables.
result Novel approach approaches outperformance of stepwise selection models.
Accurately predicting industrial aging processes makes it possible to schedule maintenance events further in advance, ensuring a cost-efficient and reliable operation of the plant. So far, these degradation processes were usually described by mechanistic or simple empirical prediction models. In this paper, we evaluate…
We study a coupled system of controlled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a Brownian motion and a compensated Poisson random measure, consisting of a forward SDE in the unknown process X(t) and a \emph{predictive mean-field} backward SDE (BSDE) in the unknowns Y(t),Z(t),K(t,⋅). The driver of …
Efficiently trains forward processes to minimize generative trajectories curvature.
problem High curvature of generative trajectories slows down sampling speed.
method Trains forward process to minimize curvature without ODE/SDE simulation.
result Lower curvature than previous models, decreased sampling costs.
This paper presents a new meta-modeling framework to employ deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to generate mechanical constitutive models for interfaces. The constitutive models are conceptualized as information flow in directed graphs. The process of writing constitutive models are simplified as a sequence of forming g…
FLDD improves discrete diffusion models by learning a non-Markovian noising process.
problem Efficiency and quality of discrete diffusion models in few-step generation.
method Introduces a learnable non-Markovian forward (noising) process to match the target distribution.
result FLDD produces higher quality samples in fewer steps compared to conventional discrete diffusion models.
Study predicts bond yields using machine learning and ultimate forward rates.
problem Forecasting bond yields using ultimate forward rates.
method Applied de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology for UFR estimation, used linear and nonlinear machine learning techniques.
result Nonlinear machine learning models outperform linear models in bond yield forecasting.
A VAE model predicts material properties and microstructures.
problem Building forward and inverse structure-property linkages in materials science.
method Combines VAE with regression, using a two-level prior and multi-modal Gaussian mixture.
result The model achieves accurate forward and inverse predictions of material properties and microstructures.
Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-…
The goal of this note is to prove a compact embedding result for spaces of forward rate curves. As a consequence of this result, we show that any forward rate evolution can be approximated by a sequence of finite dimensional processes in the larger state space.
MASF improves score-based filters for high-dimensional nonlinear systems with spatially sparse measurements.
problem Challenges in data assimilation for nonlinear, high-dimensional systems with spatially sparse measurements.
method Developed a forward process tailored for filtering that transforms the system state toward the measurement space, enabling a theoretically sound formulation of the likelihood score.
result MASF shows improved performance over existing score-based filters and ensemble-type Kalman filters, achieving up to a 28.2× wall-clock speedup.
fmeffects package interprets non-linear models in plain language.
problem Interpreting complex non-linear models.
method Forward marginal effects for model-agnostic explanations.
result First software implementation of forward marginal effects.
Study pricing options on forward contracts using infinite-dimensional affine models.
problem Pricing European-style options on forward contracts in complex stochastic volatility models.
method Model forward price curves using stochastic partial differential equations modulated by stochastic volatility processes. Analyze two classes of affine stochastic volatility models: Gaussian and pure-jump. Derive conditions for existence of exponential moments and develop semi-closed pricing formulas.
result Developed semi-closed Fourier-based pricing formulas for vanilla call and put options in infinite-dimensional affine models.
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
Study proposes a novel local explanation method for deep learning classifiers in process mining.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for process mining.
method Defines local regions using latent space representations and visualizes explanations.
result Deep learning classifier achieves high performance and local explanations increase user trust.