Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,738 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

1122 · Oct 201819922001200920172026
21 results for forward-prediction

Forward-prediction models enhance physical reasoning, but only for specific tasks.

problem Improving physical reasoning in complex tasks involving many objects.
method Incorporated forward-prediction models into simple physical-reasoning agents and evaluated their performance on the PHYRE benchmark.
result Forward-prediction models improve physical-reasoning performance, especially on complex tasks, but generalization to new task templates is challenging.

PBI inference may not be calibrated if predictive model is inaccurate.

problem Uncertainty quantification in PBI may be unreliable if the predictive model is not accurate.
method Predictive Bayesian inference with a forward predictive model.
result Posterior concentration depends on the predictive model, leading to potential calibration issues.

KINet learns object interactions without supervision for robotic pushing.

problem Lack of supervised data for object-centric forward prediction.
method End-to-end unsupervised framework using keypoint representation and contrastive estimation.
result Automatically generalizes to unseen scenarios and accurately predicts future states.

In this paper we consider self-supervised representation learning to improve sample efficiency in reinforcement learning (RL). We propose a forward prediction objective for simultaneously learning embeddings of states and action sequences. These embeddings capture the structure of the environment's dynamics, enabling e…

2019-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a new model for unsupervised document embedding. Leading existing approaches either require complex inference or use recurrent neural networks (RNN) that are difficult to parallelize. We take a different route and develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) embedding model. Our CNN architecture is fully par…

2017-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Reinforcement learning algorithms struggle when the reward signal is very sparse. In these cases, naive random exploration methods essentially rely on a random walk to stumble onto a rewarding state. Recent works utilize intrinsic motivation to guide the exploration via generative models, predictive forward models, or …

2018-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

A dry decade in the Navajo Nation has killed vegetation, dessicated soils, and released once-stable sand into the wind. This sand now covers one-third of the Nation's land, threatening roads, gardens and hundreds of homes. Many arid regions have similar problems: global warming has increased dune movement across farmla…

2019-12-13abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia. Successively, the state-space estimations overall are quite rationally competent in examini…

2016-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

A VAE model predicts material properties and microstructures.

problem Building forward and inverse structure-property linkages in materials science.
method Combines VAE with regression, using a two-level prior and multi-modal Gaussian mixture.
result The model achieves accurate forward and inverse predictions of material properties and microstructures.

Study uses AI and ML to predict and optimize corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys.

problem Corrosion resistance of aluminum alloys in marine environments.
method Investigated two ML approaches: direct and inverse, using Random Forest, neural network, and Gaussian Process Regression.
result Gaussian Process Regression with hybrid kernel functions provided superior predictive performance.

Gradient guidance improves diffusion models for optimizing specific objectives.

problem Improving diffusion models for specific optimization tasks.
method Established a mathematical framework for gradient-guided diffusion, linking it to optimization theory. Developed a modified gradient guidance method and iteratively fine-tuned version.
result Gradient-guided diffusion models are essentially solutions to regularized optimization problems, preserving latent structure.

Unified framework for forward and inverse PDE problems in multiphase media.

problem Non-differentiable inverse problems in discrete-valued material fields.
method GenPANIS: Latent-variable generative framework preserving discrete microstructures.
result Unified bidirectional inference with minimal labeled pairs and physics-aware decoder.

iGNN tackles inverse graph prediction using invertible neural networks.

problem Inverse graph prediction problem in data analysis and machine learning.
method Developed invertible graph neural network (iGNN) to solve inverse prediction problem on graphs.
result iGNN model allows efficient generation from output labels and forward prediction.

Paper proposes hybrid modeling to improve surrogate accuracy using multiple data sources.

problem Improving surrogate model accuracy by integrating simulation and real-world data.
method Two novel probabilistic approaches: separate and combined surrogates with weighting strategy.
result Hybrid models improve predictive accuracy and coverage compared to single-source surrogates.
Critical Market Crashescond-mat.stat-mech

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distributio…

2003-01-28abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a novel method to forecast the future from the present using time-reversed data.

problem Forecasting the future from past data, exploiting temporal asymmetry.
method Retrodictive forecasting via inverse MAP optimization over a Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method successfully predicts future events in time-reversible and irreversible processes.