Deep learning identifies precipitation clouds from all-sky camera data.
problem Automating cloud warning systems for observatories.
method Deep learning using EfficientNet network.
result Average accuracy of 99% in identifying rainfall potential and 96% in cloud coverage.
Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are often uncalibrated and exhibit worse forecast skill than ensemble forecasts of o…
The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but only for short-term simulations of at most a few years because of computational lim…
New approach combines likelihood and adversarial losses for better precipitation predictions.
problem Spatially inconsistent precipitation projections from likelihood-based models.
method Fuses likelihood-based and adversarial losses for generative models.
result Improves spatial consistency in precipitation downscaling.
RainfallBench benchmarks GNSS-based precipitation nowcasting models, addressing complex meteorological challenges.
problem Evaluation of precipitation nowcasting models in meteorology is insufficient due to focus on periodic variables.
method RainfallBench dataset and specialized evaluation protocols for multi-scale, multi-resolution, and extreme rainfall events.
result Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF) enhances rainfall time series forecasting by incorporating domain-specific priors.
A new method predicts precipitation distributions from ensemble forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of precipitation forecasts.
method Distributional regression U-Nets for postprocessing ensemble precipitation forecasts.
result Competitive performance in continuous ranked probability score, especially for heavy precipitation.
Study improves precipitation predictions for High Mountain Asia using machine learning.
problem Uncertainty in future precipitation over High Mountain Asia due to regional climate model biases.
method Probabilistic machine learning framework combining 13 regional climate models via a mixture of experts.
result 32% improvement over equally-weighted average and 254% improvement over single ensemble member.
New method improves local precipitation predictions using video diffusion.
problem Limited high-resolution local precipitation predictions due to computational costs.
method Extends video diffusion models to capture conditional distribution of high-resolution patterns.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in CRPS, MSE, and precipitation distribution.
Researchers use Gaussian processes with non-stationary kernels to model precipitation patterns in the Upper Indus Basin.
problem Uncertainty in precipitation patterns in the Upper Indus Basin, Himalayas.
method Proposes Gaussian processes with structured non-stationary kernels to model precipitation patterns, accounting for spatial variation with a latent Gaussian process.
result The proposed model adapts to varying precipitation patterns across distinct topography and outperforms stationary models in ablation experiments.
STAS selects optimal spatio-temporal scales for bias correction in precipitation forecasts.
problem Limited prior data and fixed ST scale in existing BCoPs lead to biases in numerical weather predictions.
method End-to-end deep-learning BCoP model STAS with SFM/TFM to automatically adjust spatial and temporal scales.
result STAS outperforms 8 published BCoP methods on threat scores (TS).
Studying the impact of climate change on precipitation is constrained by finding a way to evaluate the evolution of precipitation variability over time. Classical approaches (feature-based) have shown their limitations for this issue due to the intermittent and irregular nature of precipitation. In this study, we prese…
MetNet forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours with high spatial and temporal resolution.
problem Precise weather forecasting for long lead times.
method Neural network architecture using axial self-attention for global context aggregation.
result MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 8 hours.
Paper proposes a novel approach to improve spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of spatiotemporal precipitation forecasts for flood damage mitigation.
method Introduces a rain-code fusion approach using ConvLSTM and multi-frame fusion for spatiotemporal precipitation code-to-code forecasting.
result Demonstrates enhanced accuracy in precipitation forecasts beyond 3 timesteps using the rain-code fusion.
New method models precipitation extremes and spatial dependence.
problem Estimating dependencies of precipitation maxima in space and time.
method Generative neural networks for max-stable processes.
result Explicit nonparametric estimate of spatial dependence.
Combination of distributional regression algorithms improves uncertainty estimation of satellite precipitation products.
problem Uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation products.
method Ensemble learning methods combining conditional zero-adjusted probability distributions estimated with GAMLSS, spline-based GAMLSS, and distributional regression forests.
result Stacking of methods outperformed individual methods in most quantile levels using the quantile loss function.
New algorithms improve uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation predictions.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in machine learning spatial precipitation predictions from satellite data.
method Benchmarked six algorithms including LightGBM, compared using quantile scoring functions and rules.
result LightGBM outperformed other algorithms in quantile scoring rule by 11.10%.
Machine learning improves sub-hourly precipitation data recovery.
problem Missing precipitation data at sub-hourly intervals.
method Two-step process: rain/non-rain classification and rain intensity prediction.
result Machine learning outperforms traditional methods in predicting missing precipitation data.
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
Generative deep learning improves precipitation forecasts by adding resolution.
problem Inaccurate and unreliable precipitation forecasts due to unresolved processes.
method Applying GANs to super-resolve low-resolution weather model data using radar measurements.
result GANs and VAE-GANs produce high-resolution precipitation maps with better statistical properties than existing methods.
New model predicts particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
problem Improving prediction of electron particle precipitation from magnetosphere to ionosphere.
method Compilation of new database, use of machine learning (ML) tools, neural network (PrecipNet).
result PrecipNet achieves >50% reduction in errors and better captures dynamic changes.
Machine learning predicts seasonal precipitation for East Africa.
problem Predicting seasonal precipitation for East Africa using machine learning.
method Dimension reduction via EOFs, large-scale climate variability indices as features, interpretable ML algorithm.
result The ML approach shows significant positive skill in predicting precipitation for OND season, comparable to ECMWF forecasts.
High-resolution nowcasting is an essential tool needed for effective adaptation to climate change, particularly for extreme weather. As Deep Learning (DL) techniques have shown dramatic promise in many domains, including the geosciences, we present an application of DL to the problem of precipitation nowcasting, i.e., …
DiffObs predicts global precipitation with realistic wave modes and low frequency variations.
problem Predicting global precipitation evolution using satellite observations.
method Autoregressive generative diffusion model trained on satellite data.
result Model generates realistic wave modes and low frequency variations, validating its potential for climate prediction.
Generative adversarial networks generate realistic, time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
problem Improving spatial resolution of low-resolution atmospheric images.
method Recurrent, stochastic super-resolution GAN for generating ensembles of time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.
result The GAN produces realistic, temporally consistent super-resolution sequences for radar-measured precipitation and cloud optical thickness.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
Efficiently estimates material parameter space with multifidelity Gaussian process modeling.
problem Estimating a region of material parameter space with similar precipitate shapes.
method Multifidelity Gaussian process modeling to reduce computational cost.
result Significant reduction in sampling cost for accurate LER estimation.
Deep generative models improve global precipitation forecasts.
problem Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is challenging and costly.
method Trained a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CorrectorGAN) to correct and super-resolve global precipitation forecasts.
result CorrectorGAN produces high-resolution, bias-corrected forecasts in seconds.
Climate extreme events are constantly increasing. What is the effect of these potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy, with particular reference to the economic activities? Extreme precipitation events over most of the midlatitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become mo…
We win EVA2025 by estimating extreme precipitation events using Peaks Over Thresholds and martingale testing.
problem Estimating the probability of extreme precipitation events with limited data.
method Modeling Peaks Over Thresholds with an exponential distribution and using martingale testing for evaluation.
result Our method outperforms other approaches in estimating extreme precipitation events.
Study evaluates deep learning methods for climate downscaling over Spain.
problem Deep learning methods' extrapolation capability for climate projections.
method Intercomparison experiment using PP and RCM emulation models.
result Existing models struggle with extrapolating unseen conditions.
Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) launch…
Effective training of Deep Neural Networks requires massive amounts of data and compute. As a result, longer times are needed to train complex models requiring large datasets, which can severely limit research on model development and the exploitation of all available data. In this paper, this problem is investigated i…
In this contribution, we present a novel approach for segmenting laser radar (lidar) imagery into geometric time-height cloud locations with a fully convolutional network (FCN). We describe a semi-supervised learning method to train the FCN by: pre-training the classification layers of the FCN with image-level annotati…
New method upsamples sparse, non-uniform point clouds more accurately.
problem Suboptimal results from existing point cloud upsampling methods.
method Imposes manifold distribution constraints using Gaussian functions.
result Generates higher-quality, more uniformly distributed dense point clouds.
In recent decades, the use of 3D point clouds has been widespread in computer industry. The development of techniques in analyzing point clouds is increasingly important. In particular, mapping of point clouds has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we develop a discrete analogue of the Teichmüller extremal mapp…
Framework optimizes cloud container sizing for ML tasks.
problem Challenges in cloud container configuration for ML services.
method Autonomous scaling using nested-loop Monte Carlo simulation.
result Reduces compute cost and accelerates ML algorithms.
This paper focuses on a novel generative approach for 3D point clouds that makes use of invertible flow-based models. The main idea of the method is to treat a point cloud as a probability density in 3D space that is modeled using a cloud-specific neural network. To capture the similarity between point clouds we rely o…
SVM predicts regional rainfall with varying accuracy, best in central US.
problem Regional rainfall prediction for social and economic impact planning.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) applied to sequences of daily rainfall maps.
result SVM predictions for central region outperform untrained classifier.
Clouds frequently cover the Earth's surface and pose an omnipresent challenge to optical Earth observation methods. The vast majority of remote sensing approaches either selectively choose single cloud-free observations or employ a pre-classification strategy to identify and mask cloudy pixels. We follow a different st…
We proposed a novel graph convolutional neural network that could construct a coarse, sparse latent point cloud from a dense, raw point cloud. With a novel non-isotropic convolution operation defined on irregular geometries, the model then can reconstruct the original point cloud from this latent cloud with fine detail…
A novel method compares 3D point clouds using information geometry.
problem Comparing 3D point clouds in machine learning applications.
method Interprets point clouds as probability density functions on a statistical manifold, using GMM and Modified Symmetric KL divergence.
result Demonstrates effectiveness through various case studies.
Existing techniques to compress point cloud attributes leverage either geometric or video-based compression tools. We explore a radically different approach inspired by recent advances in point cloud representation learning. Point clouds can be interpreted as 2D manifolds in 3D space. Specifically, we fold a 2D grid on…
Improved prediction of polymer morphology through machine learning and simulations.
problem Understanding and predicting the morphology of multi-component polymer blends.
method Modified Cahn-Hilliard model for simulations, machine learning for clustering and prediction.
result Machine learning achieved ≥ 90% accuracy in predicting polymer morphology. Develops a method for conformal parameterization of point clouds without fixed boundaries.
problem Desirable distortion in fixed-boundary parameterizations of point clouds.
method Free-boundary conformal parameterization method involving approximation of point cloud Laplacian and boundary treatment.
result High-quality point cloud meshing achieved through the proposed method.
Algorithm classifies point clouds using deep set linearized optimal transport.
problem Classifying point clouds efficiently and accurately.
method Deep Set Linearized Optimal Transport, ICNNs, and a discriminator network.
result Efficiently distinguishes between various classes of point clouds.
We conduct an empirical study of machine learning functionalities provided by major cloud service providers, which we call machine learning clouds. Machine learning clouds hold the promise of hiding all the sophistication of running large-scale machine learning: Instead of specifying how to run a machine learning task,…