arXiv research

Dynamic networks are a general language for describing time-evolving complex systems, and discrete time network models provide an emerging statistical technique for various applications. It is a fundamental research question to detect the community structure in time-evolving networks. However, due to significant comput…

GraphKKE learns fixed-length feature vectors from time-evolving graphs of human microbiome data.

A tutorial on dynamic Laplacian for time-evolving data clusters.

The paper develops a neural network-based method for detecting change points in large-scale time-evolving data.

In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication netw…

Generative adversarial networks generate realistic, time-evolving high-resolution atmospheric fields.

Topic discovery has witnessed a significant growth as a field of data mining at large. In particular, time-evolving topic discovery, where the evolution of a topic is taken into account has been instrumental in understanding the historical context of an emerging topic in a dynamic corpus. Traditionally, time-evolving t…

This paper introduces a novel technique to track structures in time evolving graphs. The method is based on a parameter free approach for three-dimensional co-clustering of the source vertices, the target vertices and the time. All these features are simultaneously segmented in order to build time segments and clusters…

Anomaly detection is facing with emerging challenges in many important industry domains, such as cyber security and online recommendation and advertising. The recent trend in these areas calls for anomaly detection on time-evolving data with high-dimensional categorical features without labeled samples. Also, there is …

A fast spectral algorithm detects community structure in evolving graphs.

The paper proposes a Gaussian mixture model for Hilbert-space-valued data.

New method clusters evolving networks using spatio-temporal graph Laplacian.

Proposes tPARAFAC2 for tracking evolving patterns in time-evolving data.

New method clusters directed graphs using Koopman operators.

We model microbiome interactions as graphs to interpret complex dynamics.

Graph-based methods pervade the inference toolkits of numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience, physics, chemistry, and engineering. A challenging problem encountered in this context pertains to determining the attributes of a set of vertices given those of another subset at possibly different ti…

Artificial neural networks are simple and efficient machine learning tools. Defined originally in the traditional setting of simple vector data, neural network models have evolved to address more and more difficulties of complex real world problems, ranging from time evolving data to sophisticated data structures such …

TATD predicts missing entries in time-evolving tensors by exploiting temporal dependency and sparsity.

Enhances neural network solvers for PDEs with complex boundary conditions.

We show that a simple model of a spatially resolved evolving economic system, which has a steady state under simultaneous updating, shows stable oscillations in price when updated asynchronously. The oscillations arise from a gradual decline of the mean price due to competition among sellers competing for the same reso…

Graph-based approach predicts stock trends using dynamic multi-relational graphs.

In a dynamic social or biological environment, the interactions between the actors can undergo large and systematic changes. In this paper we propose a model-based approach to analyze what we will refer to as the dynamic tomography of such time-evolving networks. Our approach offers an intuitive but powerful tool to in…

Paper tackles continuous transfer learning with evolving target domains.

We propose a family of statistical models for social network evolution over time, which represents an extension of Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs). Many of the methods for ERGMs are readily adapted for these models, including maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. We discuss models of this type and their pro…

Novel framework synthesizes stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.

We propose a simple model for the behaviour of longterm investors on a stock market, consisting of three particles, which represent the current price of the stock and the opinion of the buyers, respectively sellers, about the right trading price. As time evolves, both groups of traders update their opinions with respec…

An emerging way of tackling the dimensionality issues arising in the modeling of a multivariate process is to assume that the inherent data structure can be captured by a graph. Nevertheless, though state-of-the-art graph-based methods have been successful for many learning tasks, they do not consider time-evolving sig…

In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure …

We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources. The proposed model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian process, in which each obse…

Financial networks have become extremely useful in characterizing the structure of complex financial systems. Meanwhile, the time evolution property of the stock markets can be described by temporal networks. We utilize the temporal network framework to characterize the time-evolving correlation-based networks of stock…

We present a novel probabilistic clustering model for objects that are represented via pairwise distances and observed at different time points. The proposed method utilizes the information given by adjacent time points to find the underlying cluster structure and obtain a smooth cluster evolution. This approach allows…

Many kinds of data can be represented as a network or graph. It is crucial to infer the latent structure underlying such a network and to predict unobserved links in the network. Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB) is a promising model for network data. Latent variables and unknown parameters in MMSB have bee…

Time series of graphs are increasingly prevalent in modern data and pose unique challenges to visual exploration and pattern extraction. This paper describes the development and application of matrix factorizations for exploration and time-varying community detection in time-evolving graph sequences. The matrix factori…

Paper introduces a new deep-learning method for quantum mechanics.

We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrelated random price changes. We then identify the principal components o…

We present a principled approach for detecting overlapping temporal community structure in dynamic networks. Our method is based on the following framework: find the overlapping temporal community structure that maximizes a quality function associated with each snapshot of the network subject to a temporal smoothness c…

This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia. Successively, the state-space estimations overall are quite rationally competent in examini…

The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that data is drawn identically from a generating distribution. Introducing sparsity a…

This paper takes a deep learning approach to understand consumer credit risk when e-commerce platforms issue unsecured credit to finance customers' purchase. The "NeuCredit" model can capture both serial dependences in multi-dimensional time series data when event frequencies in each dimension differ. It also captures …

The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree s…

Develops probabilistic forecasting for Sea Level Anomalies using Conformal Prediction on functional time series.

We are often interested in clustering objects that evolve over time and identifying solutions to the clustering problem for every time step. Evolutionary clustering provides insight into cluster evolution and temporal changes in cluster memberships while enabling performance superior to that achieved by independently c…

ACI uses Bayesian data assimilation to trace causes from effects in complex systems.

STAD adapts models to evolving time-based data shifts.

We present the collaborative Kalman filter (CKF), a dynamic model for collaborative filtering and related factorization models. Using the matrix factorization approach to collaborative filtering, the CKF accounts for time evolution by modeling each low-dimensional latent embedding as a multidimensional Brownian motion.…

We consider pointwise linear elliptic equations of the form $\mathrm{L}_x u_x = η_x$ on a smooth compact manifold where the operators $\mathrm{L}_x$ are in divergence form with real, bounded, measurable coefficients that vary in the space variable $x$. We establish $\mathrm{L}^{2}$-continuity of the solutions at $x$ wh…

Reduced models derived from agent-based systems using Koopman theory.

Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several mode…