New approach shows AI can adapt like toddlers by correcting old knowledge.
problem Lack of adaptability in AI models compared to humans and animals.
method Casting adaptation as posterior correction and using Bayesian Learning Rule.
result AI can learn to adapt quickly by using posterior correction.
Improved MALA method for neural networks uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks.
method Corrected Stochastic MALA (csMALA) with a simplified correction term.
result Improved surrogate posterior for quantifying uncertainties in neural networks.
FMCPE improves SBI accuracy by correcting posterior estimators with flow matching.
problem Model misspecification in SBI leads to biased or overconfident posteriors.
method Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE) trains a posterior approximator and corrects it using calibration samples.
result FMCPE consistently mitigates misspecification effects, improving inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
problem Error in ILA for non-Gaussian likelihoods in LGMs.
method Importance sampling scheme to correct ILA errors.
result Corrected posterior converges to the true posterior with increased samples.
SDG uses optimal control to improve classifier guidance in low-density regions.
problem Inefficient guidance in low-density regions of posterior distributions.
method Integrates stochastic optimal control with Stein variational inference to compute the steepest descent direction.
result SDG improves guidance in low-density regions, outperforming standard methods.
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to incorrect posterior predictive distributions. We present a novel approach that corr…
Variational Bayesian neural networks combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. However, inference procedures for flexible variational posteriors are computationally expensive. A recently proposed method, noisy natural gradient, is a surprisingly simple method to fit expressive poste…
The paper corrects Bayesian neural network approximations to improve decision quality.
problem Inaccurate posterior approximations in Bayesian neural networks lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Develops methods to calibrate approximate posterior predictive distributions for better decision making.
result Empirically produces higher quality decisions compared to previous methods.
Improved variational inference for geophysical inverse problems with data correction.
problem High computational cost and accuracy issues in Bayesian inference for geophysical inverse problems.
method Amortized variational inference with latent distribution correction using physics-based priors.
result Improved robustness of amortized variational inference under data distribution shifts.
New method corrects skewed confidence for PbN classification.
problem Weakly supervised binary classification with biased negative data.
method Corrects skewed confidence in negative data to improve classifier.
result Reduces distortion in posterior probability for PbN classification.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
FSGLD improves federated data sampling by correcting noisy gradients.
problem Noisy gradients and delayed communication in federated data.
method Conductive gradients to correct noisy gradients in distributed SGLD.
result FSGLD converges to true posterior even with delayed communication.
Bayesian inference corrects bias in supervised learning datasets.
problem Correcting bias in supervised machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian inference framework to adjust posterior distribution.
result Improved model fitting to original dataset.
A new method improves data representation for diverse tasks.
problem Learning meaningful representations for tasks like batch correction and counterfactual inference.
method Contrastive Mixture of Posteriors (CoMP) method using misalignment penalties.
result CoMP achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging tasks.
Neural operators correct PDE residuals to improve BIP solutions.
problem Reducing error in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems with neural operators.
method Error correction using PDE residuals to improve neural operator approximation.
result Trained neural operators with error correction achieve a quadratic reduction in approximation error.
New method corrects selection bias in complex models.
problem Selection bias in statistical studies leading to systematic distortions.
method Amortized Bayesian inference with neural posterior estimation.
result Recover well-calibrated posterior distributions across diverse selection mechanisms.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
Variational inference has become one of the most widely used methods in latent variable modeling. In its basic form, variational inference employs a fully factorized variational distribution and minimizes its KL divergence to the posterior. As the minimization can only be carried out approximately, this approximation i…
Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling unifies stochastic-process regression and PDE inverse problems.
problem Function-space posterior sampling for stochastic processes and inverse problems.
method Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling (FAPS) using pretrained function-space flow-matching priors.
result Coherent posterior samples with accurate uncertainty quantification.
Adaptive stepsizing improves sampling in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Scalable sampling of posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method SA-SGLD, employing time rescaling to adapt stepsize dynamically.
result SA-SGLD achieves more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD.
Corrected and improved simulation methods for Dirichlet-Laplace prior.
problem Incorrect sampling order in original MCMC method for DL prior.
method Provided two solutions: correction and alternative algorithm.
result Improved simulation methods for DL prior without affecting theoretical results.
MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
problem MFVI underestimates posterior variance
method Analyzing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression
result MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
Bayesian method improves approximate model posteriors.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in approximate Bayesian inference.
method Optimizing a transformation of the approximate posterior to maximize a scoring rule.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in posterior coverage properties.
Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Approximating the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs with provable correctness.
method Interval-based trace semantics, soundness and completeness proofs, weight-aware interval type system.
result Guaranteed bounds on the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs are computed and proven to be correct.
SNPLA uses normalizing flows for efficient inference in implicit models.
problem Efficient inference in implicit models with complex likelihood and posterior learning.
method Sequential Neural Posterior and Likelihood Approximation (SNPLA) algorithm using normalizing flows.
result SNPLA achieves competitive performance with faster posterior draws compared to MCMC methods.
Bayesian framework for sphere regression using Gaussian fields.
problem Nonparametric regression on the sphere with Gaussian priors.
method Isotropic Gaussian field priors, harmonic structure, exact posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation, posterior contraction rates.
result Sharp posterior contraction rates for Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra.
Enhances predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning via generalized Laplace approximation.
problem Inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning.
method Interprets posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification and recalibration of priors. Introduces generalized Laplace approximation.
result Generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
Contrastive learning recovers latent distributions for ambiguous inputs, including aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities, making the true posterior probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty.
method Extended InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions, proving they recover the correct posteriors, including aleatoric uncertainty.
result Contrastive learning encoders can recover the correct posteriors of data-generating processes, including aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space.
Posterior sampling from diffusion models is computationally hard.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in diffusion models is intractable.
method Analyzes the computational complexity of posterior sampling in diffusion models.
result Posterior sampling is computationally intractable under cryptographic assumptions.
For regular particle filter algorithm or Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, the initial weights are traditionally dependent on the proposed distribution, the posterior distribution at the current timestamp in the sampled sequence, and the target is the posterior distribution of the previous timestamp. This is techni…
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an ε-ball around the obs…
Exact posterior score estimation for solving linear inverse problems
problem Solving linear inverse problems
method Derive the exact posterior score and use it as a denoising training objective
result EPS outperforms training-free and training-based baselines on various metrics
SCoreBO improves Bayesian optimization by learning hyperparameters and self-correcting.
problem Efficient hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian process models in Bayesian optimization.
method Introduces SAL and SCoreBO, which prioritize hyperparameter learning and perform simultaneous optimization and learning.
result SCoreBO outperforms state-of-the-art methods on traditional benchmarks and atypical tasks.
A new method improves Bayesian inference for multimodal posteriors.
problem Insensitivity to well-separated modes in multimodal posteriors.
method Weighted Kernel Stein Discrepancy method.
result Significantly improved mode sensitivity compared to standard KSD-Bayes.
The goal of imitation learning is for an apprentice to learn how to behave in a stochastic environment by observing a mentor demonstrating the correct behavior. Accurate prior knowledge about the correct behavior can reduce the need for demonstrations from the mentor. We present a novel approach to encoding prior knowl…
Recent work has argued that stochastic gradient descent can approximate the Bayesian uncertainty in model parameters near local minima. In this work we develop a similar correspondence for minibatch natural gradient descent (NGD). We prove that for sufficiently small learning rates, if the model predictions on the trai…
A new particle filter uses diffusion models to improve state estimation from noisy data.
problem Sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations.
method Uses a diffusion model to simulate and predict system dynamics, incorporating noisy observations to refine predicted states.
result An unbiased particle filtering method that rigorously fuses observational data with diffusion model simulations.
Self-supervised learning excels in topic modeling by being less model-specific.
problem How self-supervised learning discovers useful representations in topic models.
method Applying self-supervised learning objectives to topic model-generated data.
result Self-supervised learning objectives can recover useful posterior information for topic models, outperforming misspecified models.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a powerful algorithm for sampling from difficult-to-normalize posterior distributions. However, when the geometry of the posterior is unfavorable, it may take many expensive evaluations of the target distribution and its gradient to converge and mix. We propose neural transport (NeuTra) HMC, …
A new method combines Laplace and Variational Bayes for scalable inference.
problem Complex models and large datasets make exact inference infeasible.
method Low-Rank Variational Bayes Correction (VBC) using Laplace method and Variational Bayes correction in a lower dimension.
result The method ensures scalability in both model complexity and data size.
New method for Bayesian inference on large datasets.
problem Scalable sampling for Bayesian generalized linear mixed models on large datasets.
method Mirror Langevin dynamics with data subsampling, post-processing for variance estimation.
result Asymptotic, order-wise correct estimation of posterior variance.
Study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression using variational inference.
problem High-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors.
method Non-linear large deviations theory and variational inference.
result Unique optimizer in variational problem governs posterior distribution under separation condition.
Volatility estimation based on high-frequency data is key to accurately measure and control the risk of financial assets. A Lévy process with infinite jump activity and microstructure noise is considered one of the simplest, yet accurate enough, models for financial data at high-frequency. Utilizing this model, we prop…
Linear regression is an important tool across many fields that work with sensitive human-sourced data. Significant prior work has focused on producing differentially private point estimates, which provide a privacy guarantee to individuals while still allowing modelers to draw insights from data by estimating regressio…
Bayesian models for networks are often misspecified, leading to overconfident inference.
problem Real-world networks violate assumptions of geometry and link function in latent space models.
method Proposes a generalized posterior framework for random geometric graphs, using Link-Sequential R-SafeBayes to adaptively tune posterior regularization.
result Improved calibration and better link prediction performance demonstrated on synthetic and real-world networks.