Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

1223 · Oct 202319922001200920172026
29 results for Gibbs-posterior

PAC-Bayes bounds for Gibbs posteriors derived via singular learning theory.

problem Generalization bounds for overparameterized models with data-dependent priors.
method Explicit non-asymptotic PAC-Bayes bounds using singular learning theory.
result Explicit posterior-averaged risk bounds for overparameterized models.

The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable. One may sample from it using Markov chain Monte Carlo, but this is often too slow…

2015-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods for tuning alpha in Gibbs posteriors improve speed and accuracy.

problem Inconsistency in Bayesian inference and lack of fast tuning methods for alpha.
method Proposed two data-driven methods: sample-splitting and bootstrapping. Formulated alpha-posteriors for three models.
result Sample-splitting outperforms SafeBayes in speed and accuracy, especially in complex models.

Develops a Bayesian framework for portfolio choice with a new posterior distribution.

problem Estimation risk in parametric portfolio policies.
method Generalized Bayesian framework with Gibbs posterior, utility maximization, and KNEEDLE algorithm.
result Optimal scaling parameter λλ controls the balance between prior and data.

The paper extends entropy maximization to multiscale settings and applies it to neural networks.

problem Achieving optimal risk bounds in neural networks using multiscale entropy.
method Generalizing maximum entropy to multiscale settings and applying it to neural networks.
result The multiscale Gibbs posterior can achieve a smaller excess risk than the single-scale Gibbs posterior in a teacher-student scenario.

Researchers estimate optimal PAC-Bayes bounds using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

problem Estimating tight PAC-Bayes bounds with restricted posterior families.
method Sampling from optimal Gibbs posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, estimating KL divergence, and proposing high-probability bounds.
result Significant tightness gaps in PAC-Bayes bounds, up to 5-6% in some cases.

Combines MALA and Adam for efficient uncertainty quantification in deep learning.

problem Uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
method Integrates Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm (MALA) with momentum-based optimization (Adam) for efficient sampling from posterior distributions.
result The algorithm approximates the Gibbs posterior in total variation distance and efficiently quantifies epistemic uncertainty.

We derive PAC-Bayesian learning guarantees for heavy-tailed losses, and obtain a novel optimal Gibbs posterior which enjoys finite-sample excess risk bounds at logarithmic confidence. Our core technique itself makes use of PAC-Bayesian inequalities in order to derive a robust risk estimator, which by design is easy to …

2019-05-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian models' singular fluctuation is shown to be akin to specific heat, influencing model complexity and generalization.

problem Understanding the thermodynamic interpretation of singular fluctuation in Bayesian models.
method Showed singular fluctuation as the curvature of Bayesian free energy and variance of log-likelihood observable under a Gibbs posterior.
result Singular fluctuation is the statistical analogue of specific heat, controlling model complexity and generalization.

Oracle inequality for sparse neural nets adapts to unknown structure.

problem Sparse deep neural nets in nonparametric regression.
method Gibbs posterior distribution with Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms and mixture of uniform priors.
result Oracle inequality showing adaptation to unknown regularity and structure, achieving minimax-optimal rate of convergence.

GADD accelerates uniform-rate discrete diffusion models by 2 orders of magnitude.

problem Slow sampling in uniform-rate discrete diffusion models.
method Gibbs-based corrector (GADD) that constructs Gibbs posterior likelihoods directly from the concrete score function.
result Achieves an overall sampling complexity of O(polylog(ε1))\mathcal{O}(\mathrm{polylog} (\varepsilon^{-1})).

The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.

problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.

DABS uses a policy network to select experiments in high-dimensional design spaces.

problem Adaptive factorial screening in high-dimensional discrete design spaces.
method DABS learns a policy network offline to sequentially select experiments, incorporating sparsity and interactions via a spike-and-slab prior.
result DABS achieves superior accuracy and scalability over classical and Bayesian baselines under tight experimental budgets.

New PAC-Bayes bounds for unbounded losses using Cramér-Chernoff techniques.

problem Developing bounds for unbounded losses in PAC-Bayesian settings.
method Introducing a new PAC-Bayes oracle bound using Cramér-Chernoff bounds and controlling random variable tails.
result Our bounds generalize and improve upon previous results, providing more informative and potentially tighter bounds.

REALITrees uses a Rashomon ensemble approach for active learning in sparse decision trees.

problem Active learning reduces labeling costs by selecting informative samples, but current methods often sacrifice model diversity and direct characterization of the hypothesis space.
method REALITrees constructs a committee of all near-optimal sparse decision tree models using a Rashomon Set and a Gibbs posterior to weight them by empirical risk.
result REALITrees outperforms randomized ensembles, especially in noisy environments, by leveraging expanded model multiplicity.

Study detects boundaries in unlabeled noisy images without labels.

problem Detecting boundaries in unlabeled noisy images without labels.
method Proposed a continuous hinge-type surrogate loss for boundary detection, combined with deep neural networks.
result Deep neural network achieves minimax-optimal boundary recovery rate under piecewise smooth boundary model.

Advocates for a new posterior that predicts better than classical and generalised Bayes.

problem Combining parameter inference and density estimation for better predictive models.
method Predictively Oriented (PrO) posterior using mean field Langevin dynamics.
result PrO posteriors converge to the predictively optimal model average, adapting to model misspecification.

Bayesian framework detects symmetries in chaotic dynamical systems.

problem Detecting symmetries in chaotic attractors for insights into dynamical system structure.
method Bayesian framework using Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances.
result Bayesian framework accurately recovers symmetries under high noise and small sample sizes.

New information-theoretic bounds improve machine learning generalization.

problem Improving machine learning generalization beyond traditional complexity-based methods.
method Introducing bounds using Wasserstein distance and structured methods to incorporate geometry and individual data dependence.
result Established connections between different bounds and introduced new tighter bounds for various loss functions.