Optimizes when to post to maximize visibility in social networks.
problem Maximizing post visibility in online social networks.
method Temporal point processes model and convex optimization framework.
result Developed a method to find optimal posting times with provable guarantees.
Bayesian framework predicts post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
problem Uncertainty in post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
method Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling framework capturing train interactions and non-Gaussian distributional characteristics.
result The proposed models consistently outperform baseline specifications in point prediction and uncertainty quantification.
Framework evaluates post-hoc interpretability methods in time-series classification.
problem Lack of suitable post-hoc interpretability methods for time-series classification.
method Proposes a framework with quantitative metrics to assess interpretability methods.
result Addresses several drawbacks of existing methods, including dependence on human judgement and data distribution shift.
Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
problem Identifying which coordinates in multivariate time series change after a detected change-point.
method Two-sample testing procedures with nonparametric tests for Type I error control.
result Strong performance of proposed post hoc statistical procedures.
Study predicts US stock market will continue to fall post-COVID-19.
problem Analyzing the recovery trend of the US stock market post-COVID-19.
method Used Deep Learning, Neuro Network, and Time-series analysis on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average data.
result LSTM model predicts US stock market will continue to fall post-COVID-19.
This paper studies how social media posts, especially by executives, affect stock prices.
problem Predicting stock market movements using social media data.
method Integrated sentiment analysis of Twitter and Reddit posts with historical stock data using time series models and deep learning.
result Improvements in stock price prediction when social media data, especially executive posts, are included.
RedQueen algorithm helps users post more visible in social networks.
problem Designing an online algorithm to maximize a user's post visibility in social networks.
method Optimal control problem for jump stochastic differential equations.
result Optimal posting times are determined by a user's most recent post's position on follower feeds.
Study shows house buyers in Christchurch value earthquake risk differently based on time since 2011 quake.
problem Understanding how house buyers' perception of earthquake risk changes over time.
method Used a hedonic price model to analyze house prices in Christchurch over three periods.
result Buyers value earthquake risk differently based on the time since the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.
MSCT predicts post-crash traffic speed using causal inference.
problem Time-varying confounding bias in post-crash traffic prediction.
method Marginal Structural Causal Transformer (MSCT) incorporating Marginal Structural Models and balanced loss function.
result MSCT outperforms state-of-the-art models in multi-step-ahead prediction.
New algorithm detects changes in Markov kernels with unknown post-change kernel.
problem Detecting changes in Markov kernels with unknown post-change kernel.
method Developed a new change detection algorithm assuming uniform ergodicity.
result Derived upper and lower bounds on mean delay and time between false alarms.
Post-training corrections boost time-series forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy of large models after training.
method Sequential application of carefully selected corrections to predictions.
result Up to 30% improvement in forecasting accuracy with minimal overhead.
DeCom predicts post-COVID RSV timing and intensity with NPI consideration.
problem Predicting RSV timing and intensity post-COVID with NPI impact.
method Deep coupled tensor factorization machine (DeCom) leveraging tensor factorization and residual modeling.
result DeCom achieves up to 46% lower RMSE and 49% lower MAE compared to baselines.
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
New method optimizes language model performance for test-time strategies.
problem Mismatch between training objectives and test-time deployment of large language models.
method Tail-Extrapolated estimators to approximate best-of-N performance from limited training rollouts.
result Improved performance of best-of-N deployment across various models and datasets.
Automated rock fragmentation assessment using deep learning and spatial statistics.
problem Assessing post-blast rock fragmentation in real-time.
method Fine-tuned YOLO12l-seg model for instance segmentation, followed by spatial statistics.
result Framework accurately assesses rock fragmentation patterns in real-time.
Geometric method improves uncertainty estimation in real-time.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Geometric distance from training inputs for uncertainty estimation, post-hoc calibration.
result Method yields better uncertainty estimations than existing approaches.
Post-estimation smoothing improves prediction accuracy with structural indices.
problem Using natural structural indices in machine learning without losing robustness.
method A post-estimation smoothing operator that separates from the original predictor.
result Post-estimation smoothing improves accuracy over original predictors under simple conditions.
New method detects structural damage quickly without knowing post-damage feature distribution.
problem Quickly identify structural damage with unknown post-damage feature distribution.
method Sequential change-point detection using maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurately identifies structural damage in various tests.
PS-DME evaluates model performance and reliability after data-dependent selection.
problem Evaluating model performance and reliability when data is used for selection and evaluation.
method Post-selection distributional model evaluation (PS-DME) using e-values to control false coverage rate.
result PS-DME provides reliable comparison of model configurations across different reliability levels.
Develops a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras using geometric interpretations and bilinear forms.
problem Characterizing and understanding post-Lie algebras and their associated structures.
method Utilizes Manin triples and generalized Hessian Lie groups to define and characterize post-Lie algebras with nondegenerate symmetric invariant bilinear forms.
result Establishes a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras via the Manin triple approach, including new algebraic structures like pp-post-Lie algebras.
The paper identifies regions where investment strategies match expected performance.
problem Inconsistent performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios.
method Density forecasting to measure ex-ante accuracy and identify the consistency region.
result Investment strategies based on consistent portfolios outperform efficient ones.
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
problem Reducing the width of central prediction intervals in ensemble forecasts
method Extending loss function with a penalty term
result 8.2%-12.5% reduction in width of central prediction interval
Post-pandemic, work patterns shifted with fewer days in offices and a new midweek mountain.
problem Shift in work patterns and integration of personal and professional life.
method Behavioral analysis using mobile geolocation records.
result Significant decline in office-based workdays and emergence of a new midweek mountain.
Study builds models to predict post-cardiac arrest outcomes using patient data.
problem Lack of accurate prognostication methods for patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest.
method Integrated electronic health records (EHR) and physiological time series (PTS) data to train machine learning classifiers.
result Combined EHR-PTS24 models outperformed models using either EHR or PTS24 alone in predicting survival and neurological outcomes.
A new model calculates LGD distribution based on firm value and credit market conditions.
problem Estimating LGD distribution in credit markets.
method Uses last passage time of a linear diffusion process to model LGD distribution.
result Explicit distributions of default time and LGD are obtained under minimal assumptions.
ExpO regularizes models to improve their explainability.
problem Improving the interpretability of black-box models.
method ExpO is a hybridization of regularization and post-hoc explanation systems.
result Post-hoc explanations for ExpO-regularized models have better explanation quality.
The paper examines how realized and implied volatilities predict future commodity quantiles.
problem Estimating and predicting the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of commodities.
method Panel quantile regression framework.
result Future quantile returns of commodities depend on both ex-post and ex-ante volatilities.
Post-groupoids help solve Yang-Baxter equation using quivers.
problem Solving the Yang-Baxter equation using algebraic structures.
method Introducing post-groupoids and showing their connection to quivers.
result Post-groupoids provide solutions to the Yang-Baxter equation.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Painless Activation Steering automates post-training for LMs without manual intervention.
problem Manual post-training methods are time-consuming and labor-intensive.
method Painless Activation Steering (PAS) is a fully automated approach that requires no manual intervention.
result PAS reliably improves performance for behavior tasks but not for intelligence-oriented tasks.
Persistently trained EBMs generate images and estimate complex densities.
problem Challenges in ML learning for energy-based models, especially non-convergence of MCMC.
method Introduce diffusion data, learn a joint EBM through persistent training with enhanced sampling.
result First simultaneous achievement of stability, post-training image generation, and superior out-of-distribution detection for image data.
Geometric deformations preserve post-Lie algebra structure in regularity structures.
problem Deriving geometric deformations of post-Lie algebras.
method Extending geometrical notions of torsion and curvature, deriving compatibility conditions.
result Derives a pre-Lie structure for regularity structures, isomorphic to a post-Lie algebra.
MLDemon monitors ML systems post-deployment, improving reliability with real-time performance estimates and expert labels.
problem Ensuring reliability of machine learning systems post-deployment, especially when user inputs differ from training data.
method Integrates unlabeled and on-demand labeled data to monitor ML model performance in real-time, deciding when to acquire expert labels.
result Outperforms existing approaches in temporal datasets with diverse distribution drifts, providing theoretical optimality for distribution drifts.
Post-processing corrects bias in ML systems without retraining.
problem Correcting bias in ML systems that are already in use.
method Proposes general post-processing algorithms for individual fairness based on graph Laplacian regularization.
result Empirically, post-processing algorithms correct individual biases in large-scale NLP models while preserving accuracy.
The paper examines optimal annuitization for retirees with potential post-retirement work.
problem Post-retirement labor participation complicates optimal annuitization decisions.
method Stochastic control, optimal stopping, expected utility maximization, martingale methodology, duality techniques.
result The optimal annuitization time is linearly dependent on initial wealth, with or without labor income.
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
MimickNet approximates clinical ultrasound post-processing without proprietary data.
problem Matching proprietary clinical-grade ultrasound post-processing techniques.
method Deep learning framework MimickNet that transforms raw DAS beams into post-processed images.
result MimickNet achieves high SSIM scores (0.930-0.967) on test sets.
We study post-Lie algebra structures on pairs of Lie algebras (g,n), and prove existence results for the case that one of the Lie algebras is semisimple. For semisimple g and solvable n we show that there exist no post-Lie algebra structures on (g,n). For semisimple n and certain solvable g we construct canonical post-…
Study uses LLMs to optimize VC exit timing after IPO.
problem Optimal exit timing after IPO is crucial but not well studied.
method Uses LLMs to analyze financial data and market signals.
result LLMs can improve VC exit timing and generate better returns.
New algorithms ensure robust data analysis but have limitations.
problem Limiting adaptivity in statistical and machine learning analysis.
method Introduces algorithms ensuring post hoc generalization.
result Post hoc generalization algorithms have limitations, including error bounds and non-closure under composition.
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
problem Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
method Empirical study and analysis of post-hoc transforms like temperature scaling, ensembling, and SWA.
result Post-hoc reversal can prevent double descent and mitigate mismatches between test loss and test error.
We introduce post-Lie algebra structures on pairs of Lie algebras $(\Lg,\Ln)$ defined on a fixed vector space V. Special cases are LR-structures and pre-Lie algebra structures on Lie algebras. We show that post-Lie algebra structures naturally arise in the study of NIL-affine actions on nilpotent Lie groups. We obtai…
A simple post-learning method boosts deep learning performance.
problem Improving classification performance in deep learning.
method Re-training the final classifier after initial training.
result Enhanced classification performance in deep learning.
Post-hoc calibration improves uncertainty under domain shift.
problem Improving uncertainty calibration under domain shift.
method Apply perturbations to validation set before post-hoc calibration.
result Perturbation step results in better calibration under domain shift.
Post-Lie algebra structure found on non-flat manifolds with curvature and torsion.
problem Understanding vector fields and endomorphisms on manifolds with curvature and torsion.
method Analyzing the post-Lie algebra structure of vector fields and endomorphisms for non-flat connections.
result A universal Lie algebra is constructed for the post-Lie algebra of vector fields and endomorphisms.
Paper improves Lasso for S&P500 index tracking with post-selection inference.
problem Index tracking for S&P500 with many applications.
method Used Lasso for dimension reduction and post-selection inference.
result Lasso method for S&P500 index tracking shows high performance.
Given the return series for a set of instruments, a \emph{trading strategy} is a switching function that transfers wealth from one instrument to another at specified times. We present efficient algorithms for constructing (ex-post) trading strategies that are optimal with respect to the total return, the Sterling ratio…