A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method infers dynamical systems from population data.
Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze strea…
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analys…
This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.
New method bypasses global fit for LISA's Galactic binaries, extracting population parameters directly.
Efficiently estimates variable importance in prediction tasks using Shapley values.
To understand how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations, we require models exhibiting a wide range of activity patterns while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging to fit such mechanistic spiking networks at the single neuron scale to empirica…
Knowledge graph construction consists of two tasks: extracting information from external resources (knowledge population) and inferring missing information through a statistical analysis on the extracted information (knowledge completion). In many cases, insufficient external resources in the knowledge population hinde…
An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for relatively simple model classes, and few scalable general-purpose inference techniques…
A method for inferring motility models and heterogeneity from particle trajectories.
In many applications, different populations are compared using data that are sampled in a biased manner. Under sampling biases, standard methods that estimate the difference between the population means yield unreliable inferences. Here we develop an inference method that is resilient to sampling biases and is able to …
The paper develops methods to identify stable associations across multiple studies.
NPE trains neural networks to approximate posterior distributions in SIR models from final outcome data.
New framework for inference with LAR, explaining variable contributions and providing stopping rules.
High-throughput sequencing allows the detection and quantification of frequencies of somatic single nucleotide variants (SNV) in heterogeneous tumor cell populations. In some cases, the evolutionary history and population frequency of the subclonal lineages of tumor cells present in the sample can be reconstructed from…
The perennial problem of "how many clusters?" remains an issue of substantial interest in data mining and machine learning communities, and becomes particularly salient in large data sets such as populational genomic data where the number of clusters needs to be relatively large and open-ended. This problem gets furthe…
Study causal inference under specific sampling methods with monotonicity assumptions.
Bayesian Federated Inference combines local data analyses to estimate regression models.
Performing inference on data obtained through observational studies is becoming extremely relevant due to the widespread availability of data in fields such as healthcare, education, retail, etc. Furthermore, this data is accrued from multiple homogeneous subgroups of a heterogeneous population, and hence, generalizing…
TMLE improves IPM estimation for ecological population dynamics.
New method uses SBI to infer magnetorotational properties of isolated pulsars.
SaML guides ML models to avoid survey biases.
The subtle and unique imprint of dark matter substructure on extended arcs in strong lensing systems contains a wealth of information about the properties and distribution of dark matter on small scales and, consequently, about the underlying particle physics. However, teasing out this effect poses a significant challe…
Rodent hippocampal population codes represent important spatial information about the environment during navigation. Several computational methods have been developed to uncover the neural representation of spatial topology embedded in rodent hippocampal ensemble spike activity. Here we extend our previous work and pro…
This work learns models for population dynamics using variational methods and higher-order quadrature.
Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs (DAGs), where the joint distribution in a population follows a DAG at any single…
New algorithm for efficient inference over tree-structured graphs.
Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on NYC Medicaid spending.
Paper tackles causal effect identification in sub-population with latent variables.
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
A new method for learning gradient flows from population dynamics.
New methods improve causal inference generalization using trial and observational data.
The landscape of empirical risk has been widely studied in a series of machine learning problems, including low-rank matrix factorization, matrix sensing, matrix completion, and phase retrieval. In this work, we focus on the situation where the corresponding population risk is a degenerate non-convex loss function, nam…
We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities, Bayesian inference for such systems remains challenging, as these are continuous tim…
This work compares regularization and constrained inference for label constraints in machine learning.
A body of recent work in modeling neural activity focuses on recovering low-dimensional latent features that capture the statistical structure of large-scale neural populations. Most such approaches have focused on linear generative models, where inference is computationally tractable. Here, we propose fLDS, a general …
PAVI speeds up Bayesian inference for large datasets.
Bayesian networks learn sub-population differences from data.
We develop amortized population Gibbs (APG) samplers, a class of scalable methods that frames structured variational inference as adaptive importance sampling. APG samplers construct high-dimensional proposals by iterating over updates to lower-dimensional blocks of variables. We train each conditional proposal by mini…
The Collective Graphical Model (CGM) models a population of independent and identically distributed individuals when only collective statistics (i.e., counts of individuals) are observed. Exact inference in CGMs is intractable, and previous work has explored Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and MAP approximations for le…
A new method corrects for bias in selecting the best candidate.
New method infers population dynamics from snapshots using path space optimization.
PAVI speeds up VI for large-scale studies by sharing parameterization across i.i.d. variables.
Treatment recommendations within Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) are largely based on findings from clinical trials and case studies, referred to here as research studies, that are often based on highly selective clinical populations, referred to here as study cohorts. When medical practitioners apply CPG recommend…
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability and temporal structure. This variability is thought to arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as "non-stationarity". To better …
When governed by underlying low-dimensional dynamics, the interdependence of simultaneously recorded population of neurons can be explained by a small number of shared factors, or a low-dimensional trajectory. Recovering these latent trajectories, particularly from single-trial population recordings, may help us unders…
The paper develops statistical inference for gradient flows in optimization.