New method for valid and exact statistical inference of multi-dimensional change-points.
arXiv research
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We introduce a novel geometry-oriented methodology, based on the emerging tools of topological data analysis, into the change point detection framework. The key rationale is that change points are likely to be associated with changes in geometry behind the data generating process. While the applications of topological …
In this paper, we are interested in the location of conjugate points along a geodesic in the volumorphism group of a compact three-dimensional manifold without boundary (the configuration space of an ideal fluid). As shown in the author's previous work, these are typically pathological, i.e., they can occur in clusters…
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Change-point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt transitions in the generative model of a sequence of observations. When Bayesian methods are considered, the standard practice is to infer the posterior distribution of the change-point locations. However, for complex models (high-dimensional or heterogeneous), it is n…
New AMP algorithm detects change points in high-dimensional GLMs.
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In this paper we propose a method of obtaining points of extreme overfitting - parameters of modern neural networks, at which they demonstrate close to 100 % training accuracy, simultaneously with almost zero accuracy on the test sample. Despite the widespread opinion that the overwhelming majority of critical points o…
Bayesian Context Trees improve change-point detection in discrete data.
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Assessing the predictive accuracy of black box classifiers is challenging in the absence of labeled test datasets. In these scenarios we may need to rely on a human oracle to evaluate individual predictions; presenting the challenge to create query algorithms to guide the search for points that provide the most informa…
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Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is provably impossible. However, it is shown that a consistent clustering method may …
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This work studies the location estimation problem for a mixture of two rotation invariant log-concave densities. We demonstrate that Least Squares EM, a variant of the EM algorithm, converges to the true location parameter from a randomly initialized point. We establish the explicit convergence rates and sample complex…