Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.
ARFs generate plausible counterfactuals for models, improving model understanding.
problem Creating realistic counterfactuals for model analysis.
method Adversarial Random Forests (ARFs) for generating plausible counterfactuals.
result ARFs efficiently generate plausible counterfactuals in a model-agnostic way.
In real world scenarios, objects are often partially occluded. This requires a robustness for object recognition against these perturbations. Convolutional networks have shown good performances in classification tasks. The learned convolutional filters seem similar to receptive fields of simple cells found in the prima…
Paper models cloud outages for cyber insurance stress-testing.
problem Cyber insurance portfolios' vulnerability to simultaneous cloud outages.
method Modeling and calibrating cloud-outage scenarios, measuring diversification.
result Cloud-outage diversification can protect against accumulation risk.
LLM generates coherent macroeconomic stress scenarios for portfolio risk assessment.
problem Macro-financial stress testing and portfolio risk assessment using traditional methods.
method Hybrid prompt-RAG pipeline combining structured prompting and retrieval of country fundamentals and news.
result LLM-generated scenarios yield stable tail-risk amplification with limited sensitivity to retrieval choices.
Paper recovers top-two answers and confusion probability in multi-choice crowdsourcing.
problem Recovering top-two answers and confusion probability in multi-choice crowdsourcing tasks.
method Proposes a two-stage inference algorithm based on a model quantifying task difficulty and worker reliability.
result Achieves minimax optimal convergence rate and outperforms other algorithms in synthetic and real data experiments.
Generating realistic asset-class scenarios from time series and curves
problem Simulating realistic trajectories for asset classes
method Combining parametric and resampling techniques
result More coherent and realistic simulations of yield-curve dynamics
Two local learning rules are investigated to avoid weight transport in neural networks.
problem Local learning rules that avoid weight transport are unstable and require tuning.
method Investigated two non-local learning rules and a more robust local rule.
result Non-local learning rules match state-of-the-art performance and operate effectively in noisy updates.
We define and compute plausible counterfactual explanations using density constraints.
problem Efficiently compute plausible counterfactual explanations for machine learning models.
method Propose and study a formal definition of plausible counterfactual explanations, use density estimators, and introduce convex density constraints.
result Convex density constraints ensure plausible and feasible counterfactual explanations.
New method generates plausible counterfactuals for time series classification.
problem Generating realistic counterfactuals for time series data.
method Gradient-based optimization with soft-DTW alignment and multi-faceted loss function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in temporal realism and distributional alignment.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
problem Natural catastrophes and droughts increase insurance costs.
method Conditional GANs for generating spatio-temporal SWI maps.
result Simulates drought patterns up to 2050 for French regions.
Performing supervised learning from the data synthesized by using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), dubbed GAN-synthetic data, has two important applications. First, GANs may generate more labeled training data, which may help improve classification accuracy. Second, in scenarios where real data cannot be release…
New method for risk allocation under multimodality of loss distribution.
problem Risk assessment under multimodal conditional loss distribution.
method Maximum Likelihood Allocation (MLA) and multimodality adjustment.
result Multimodality adjustment improves soundness of risk allocations.
A long standing problem in visual object categorization is the ability of algorithms to generalize across different testing conditions. The problem has been formalized as a covariate shift among the probability distributions generating the training data (source) and the test data (target) and several domain adaptation …
Unified framework for risk evaluation under uncertainty.
problem Risk assessment under multiple economic scenarios.
method Axiomatic framework for generalized risk measures.
result Characterization of worst-case, coherent, and robust risk measures.
This paper introduces early exits in neural networks for faster inference.
problem Reducing inference time and preventing overfitting in neural networks.
method Designing and training multi-output neural networks with early exits.
result Significant reductions in inference time and improved robustness.
Optimism about the poorly understood states and actions is the main driving force of exploration for many provably-efficient reinforcement learning algorithms. We propose optimism in the face of sensible value functions (OFVF)- a novel data-driven Bayesian algorithm to constructing Plausibility sets for MDPs to explore…
AR algorithm simplifies backpropagation with improved scalability and biological plausibility.
problem Improving backpropagation algorithms for complex neural networks and biological plausibility.
method Introducing learnable backwards weights and avoiding nonlinear derivative computations; relaxing frozen feedforward pass assumption.
result Simplified AR algorithm maintains performance on complex CNN architectures and challenging datasets.
Survey of counterfactual explanations for time series classification.
problem Generating plausible and actionable counterfactuals for time series data.
method Review of various counterfactual generation methods for time series classification.
result Highlight unique challenges and strengths of existing methods.
PhysVarMix predicts diverse urban trajectories with physics constraints.
problem Predicting complex urban agent trajectories with multiple plausible scenarios.
method Physics-informed variational mixture model combining learning and physics constraints.
result Superior performance compared to existing methods on benchmark datasets.
Proposes a new allocation method for distributionally robust ranking and selection.
problem Inaccurate simulation input modeling due to limited data.
method Introduces a simple additive allocation (AA) procedure and a general additive allocation (GAA) framework.
result Proves that the proposed AA procedure is consistent and achieves additivity in the strongest sense.
Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the …
Derives a biologically plausible neural network for Slow Feature Analysis.
problem Learning latent features from time series data.
method Starting from an SFA objective, derives Bio-SFA with a biologically plausible neural network implementation.
result Validates Bio-SFA on naturalistic stimuli, reproducing interesting properties of brain cells.
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
problem Excess volatility and small shocks causing large disruptions.
method Explains system behavior at critical point with fat-tailed fluctuations.
result SOC theory offers a plausible solution to financial market volatility.
A principled approach to understand network structures is to formulate generative models. Given a collection of models, however, an outstanding key task is to determine which one provides a more accurate description of the network at hand, discounting statistical fluctuations. This problem can be approached using two p…
New framework predicts diverse, contextually plausible 3D human motions.
problem Predicting multiple plausible future 3D poses given observed poses.
method Developed a new variational framework that conditions latent variable on past observation to encourage relevant information.
result Our approach generates motions of higher quality and preserves contextual information.
IDA adapts to non-iid data in federated learning for medical imaging.
problem Statistical heterogeneity in federated learning data, especially in medical imaging.
method IDA (Inverse Distance Aggregation) is a novel adaptive weighting approach for clients based on meta-information.
result IDA outperforms Federated Averaging in handling unbalanced and non-iid data in federated learning.
Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to erosion from storm waves. Such coastal erosion is a concern, since the majority of …
GAIT-prop derives a biologically plausible learning rule from backpropagation.
problem Biological implausibility in traditional backpropagation for neural networks.
method GAIT-prop uses a top-down model to convert output error into plausible targets for weight updates.
result GAIT-prop and backpropagation give identical weight updates under certain conditions.
New learning rules from information bottleneck improve deep learning without precise labels.
problem Training deep neural networks with backpropagation is biologically implausible.
method Kernelized information bottleneck principle with 3-factor Hebbian structure.
result The new learning rules perform nearly as well as backpropagation on image classification tasks.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
By and large, Backpropagation (BP) is regarded as one of the most important neural computation algorithms at the basis of the progress in machine learning, including the recent advances in deep learning. However, its computational structure has been the source of many debates on its arguable biological plausibility. In…
New method isolates epistemic uncertainty in diffusion models, improving plausibility scores.
problem Uncertainty quantification in diffusion models, especially epistemic uncertainty.
method Fisher information based approach using FLARE (Fisher-Laplace Randomized Estimator).
result FLARE improves uncertainty estimation in synthetic time-series generation tasks.
Proposes TNCM-VAE for generating causal financial time series.
problem Lack of causal reasoning in market generators.
method Combines VAE with structural causal models, enforcing causal constraints through DAGs and using causal Wasserstein distance.
result Superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation, L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
Training deep neural networks with the error backpropagation algorithm is considered implausible from a biological perspective. Numerous recent publications suggest elaborate models for biologically plausible variants of deep learning, typically defining success as reaching around 98% test accuracy on the MNIST data se…
The quest for diversification has led to an increasing number of complex funds with a high number of strategies and non-linear payoffs. The new generation of Alternative Risk Premia (ARP) funds are an example that has been very popular in recent years. For complex funds like these, a Reverse Stress Test (RST) is regard…
New algorithm shows neural networks can learn without full backpropagation.
problem Stochastic gradient descent with backpropagation is non-biologically plausible.
method Random and fixed backpropagation weights in a feedback alignment algorithm.
result Error converges to zero exponentially fast in overparameterized networks.
Proposes a new neural network approach to credit assignment.
problem Credit assignment problem in deep neural networks.
method Contrastive similarity matching objective function.
result Deep networks learn to match similarity between layers.
New method simulates multivariate extreme events using GANs and Aitchison coordinates.
problem Simulating multivariate extreme events for economic risk assessment.
method Wasserstein-Aitchison GAN approach combining tail dependence and marginal tail modeling.
result Strong performance in capturing tail dependence and generating accurate extreme observations.
Model forecasts motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
method Adopted Heston Stochastic Volatility model and extended it to account for seasonality and accelerated safety periods.
result Short-term forecasts show high accuracy (over 95%) and outperform existing models.
Many real-world vision problems suffer from inherent ambiguities. In clinical applications for example, it might not be clear from a CT scan alone which particular region is cancer tissue. Therefore a group of graders typically produces a set of diverse but plausible segmentations. We consider the task of learning a di…
Study evaluates deep learning methods for climate downscaling over Spain.
problem Deep learning methods' extrapolation capability for climate projections.
method Intercomparison experiment using PP and RCM emulation models.
result Existing models struggle with extrapolating unseen conditions.
A new method for robot manipulation tasks using imagined object goals.
problem Learning robot manipulation in sparse reward environments.
method Train objects to reach target positions, then use predictions to create a curriculum of tasks.
result Higher success rates in challenging learning scenarios compared to alternatives.
The Backpropagation algorithm relies on the abstraction of using a neural model that gets rid of the notion of time, since the input is mapped instantaneously to the output. In this paper, we claim that this abstraction of ignoring time, along with the abrupt input changes that occur when feeding the training set, are …
This note improves correlation stress tests using geodesic distance.
problem Improving financial risk management through better covariance stress tests.
method Proposes a new geometrically invariant definition of correlation stress tests.
result Demonstrates a submanifold approach to stress testing covariance matrices.
We propose to interpret distribution model risk as sensitivity of expected loss to changes in the risk factor distribution, and to measure the distribution model risk of a portfolio by the maximum expected loss over a set of plausible distributions defined in terms of some divergence from an estimated distribution. The…
One conjecture in both deep learning and classical connectionist viewpoint is that the biological brain implements certain kinds of deep networks as its back-end. However, to our knowledge, a detailed correspondence has not yet been set up, which is important if we want to bridge between neuroscience and machine learni…