We conduct a post hoc analysis of solar flare predictions made by a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model employing data in the form of Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) parameters calculated from data in proximity to the magnetic polarity inversion line where the flares originate. We train the the LSTM mod…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
30 results for “FLARE”
Paper uses polar field data to improve solar flare prediction accuracy.
problem Improving solar flare prediction accuracy using machine learning.
method Incorporates polar field data into machine learning models for solar flare classification.
result Improves solar flare prediction performance by up to 10.1% using a novel probabilistic mixture of experts model.
Enhances solar flare prediction with advanced preprocessing and contrastive learning.
problem Accurate prediction of solar flares to mitigate risks to astronauts and equipment.
method Advanced data preprocessing pipeline and contrastive learning with GRU regression model.
result Exceptional True Skill Statistic (TSS) scores, surpassing previous methods.
The study predicts solar flare productivity using magnetic data from SDO/HMI.
problem Forecasting solar flares, especially M- and X-class, to mitigate space weather effects.
method Statistical and machine learning methods applied to 563 ARs' magnetic data.
result Improved accuracy in predicting AR's Flare Index, especially for large values.
Study evaluates deep learning models for solar flare prediction with interpretability analysis.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for solar flare prediction.
method Proximity-based metric for analyzing attribution maps generated by Guided Grad-CAM.
result Models' predictions align with active region characteristics, offering insights into their behavior.
The flare Package for High Dimensional Linear Regression and Precision Matrix Estimation in Rstat.ML
A new R package for high-dimensional regression and precision matrix estimation.
problem High-dimensional linear regression and precision matrix estimation challenges.
method flare package implements various regression methods and extensions for sparse precision matrix estimation.
result The flare package is efficient and scalable for large problems.
We consider first order gradient methods for effectively optimizing a composite objective in the form of a sum of smooth and, potentially, non-smooth functions. We present accelerated and adaptive gradient methods, called FLAG and FLARE, which can offer the best of both worlds. They can achieve the optimal convergence …
Improve exposition and explain metric bundle equivalence.
problem Improving exposition and explaining metric bundle equivalence.
method Improved exposition and appendix explaining equivalence of flaring conditions.
result Equivalence of flaring conditions explained.
A scalable Bayesian additive model for stellar flare detection using Gaussian process inference and hidden Markov models.
problem Bayesian time-series modeling for astronomical datasets
method Generative surrogate framework with Variational Autoencoder and neural network forward pass
result Significant reduction in computational time for stellar flare detection
New method isolates epistemic uncertainty in diffusion models, improving plausibility scores.
problem Uncertainty quantification in diffusion models, especially epistemic uncertainty.
method Fisher information based approach using FLARE (Fisher-Laplace Randomized Estimator).
result FLARE improves uncertainty estimation in synthetic time-series generation tasks.
We define metric bundles/metric graph bundles which provide a purely topological/coarse-geometric generalization of the notion of trees of metric spaces a la Bestvina-Feighn in the special case that the inclusions of the edge spaces into the vertex spaces are uniform coarsely surjective quasi-isometries. We prove the e…
In analyses of rare-events, regardless of the domain of application, class-imbalance issue is intrinsic. Although the challenges are known to data experts, their explicit impact on the analytic and the decisions made based on the findings are often overlooked. This is in particular prevalent in interdisciplinary resear…
SG-PALM learns interpretable tensor models for high-dimensional data.
problem Learning interpretable tensor models for high-dimensional data.
method SG-PALM combines Sylvester generative model and fast proximal alternating linearized minimization.
result SG-PALM converges linearly to global optimum and scales to high dimensions.
Do two data samples come from different distributions? Recent studies of this fundamental problem focused on embedding probability distributions into sufficiently rich characteristic Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), to compare distributions by the distance between their embeddings. We show that Regularized Ma…
This paper describes a fast algorithm for recovering low-rank matrices from their linear measurements contaminated with Poisson noise: the Poisson noise Maximum Likelihood Singular Value thresholding (PMLSV) algorithm. We propose a convex optimization formulation with a cost function consisting of the sum of a likeliho…
We study sequential change-point detection procedures based on linear sketches of high-dimensional signal vectors using generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistics. The GLR statistics allow for an unknown post-change mean that represents an anomaly or novelty. We consider both fixed and time-varying projections, deri…
Computational models that forecast the progression of Alzheimer's disease at the patient level are extremely useful tools for identifying high risk cohorts for early intervention and treatment planning. The state-of-the-art work in this area proposes models that forecast by using latent representations extracted from t…
High-velocity streams of high-dimensional data pose significant "big data" analysis challenges across a range of applications and settings. Online learning and online convex programming play a significant role in the rapid recovery of important or anomalous information from these large datastreams. While recent advance…
Poisson Matrix Completionstat.ML
We extend the theory of matrix completion to the case where we make Poisson observations for a subset of entries of a low-rank matrix. We consider the (now) usual matrix recovery formulation through maximum likelihood with proper constraints on the matrix , and establish theoretical upper and lower bounds on the rec…
Scale-free avalanches in the multifractal random walkphysics.data-an
Avalanches, or Avalanche-like, events are often observed in the dynamical behaviour of many complex systems which span from solar flaring to the Earth's crust dynamics and from traffic flows to financial markets. Self-organized criticality (SOC) is one of the most popular theories able to explain this intermittent char…
The article describes how decorations on hyperbolic surfaces lead to unique tessellations and decompositions.
problem Understanding the geometric structure of decorated hyperbolic surfaces.
method Developing a characterisation of canonical tessellations and dual decompositions using hyperbolic geometry.
result Decorations on hyperbolic surfaces induce unique canonical tessellations and dual decompositions.
What makes you unique?stat.AP
Paper proposes a uniqueness Shapley measure to compare variable importance.
problem Comparing the importance of different variables in identifying subjects.
method Uses Shapley value to combine reductions in log cardinality due to revealing variables.
result Demonstrates speedup in calculating variable importance.
Respiratory infections and chronic respiratory diseases impose a heavy health burden worldwide. Coughing is one of the most common symptoms of many such infections, and can be indicative of flare-ups of chronic respiratory diseases. Whether at a clinical or public health level, the capacity to identify bouts of coughin…
We study the cascading dynamics immediately before and immediately after 219 market shocks. We define the time of a market shock T_{c} to be the time for which the market volatility V(T_{c}) has a peak that exceeds a predetermined threshold. The cascade of high volatility "aftershocks" triggered by the "main shock" is …
Robots' agility in changing terrain helps financial models adapt to market shifts.
problem Challenges in financial market forecasting due to regime switching.
method Adapts pretrained LLMs using intrinsic market rewards and reinforcement learning.
result Significantly improved accuracy in adapting to market regime shifts.
PERCEPT detects changes in high-dimensional data streams using topological data analysis.
problem Detecting changes in high-dimensional data streams, especially when embedded in a low-dimensional space.
method Leverages topological data analysis to learn embedded topology as a point cloud via persistence diagrams, then applies non-parametric monitoring for detecting changes.
result Demonstrates efficient detection of online changes from high-dimensional data streams.
New method integrates topological knowledge into data embeddings.
problem Lack of general tools to incorporate prior topological knowledge into embeddings.
method Introduces new topological losses to topologically regularize data embeddings.
result Natural representation of simple models like clusters and flares.
OMD monitors stock market dynamics through matrix trajectories, revealing crisis patterns and sector rotations.
problem Understanding and predicting stock market dynamics during crises.
method Applying OMD to S&P 500 returns over three crises, analyzing distance matrices and their spectra.
result Market dynamics show coherent changes during crises, with sector-specific patterns and volatility clustering.
The paper explores the geometry and dynamics of free splitting and free factor complexes for groups.
problem Understanding the large scale geometry and dynamics of free splitting and free factor complexes.
method Analyzing the actions of the relative outer automorphism group on these complexes and using tools like the Two Over All Theorem and filling paths.
result Hyperbolicity of the relative free splitting complex and relative free factor complex was proven.
A Partially Observable MDP Approach for Sequential Testing for Infectious Diseases such as COVID-19cs.LG
This paper tackles efficient testing strategies for COVID-19 by using a partially observable MDP approach.
problem Greedy testing strategies miss dormant virus areas, leading to inefficient use of testing resources.
method Develops efficient learning strategies based on policy iteration and look-ahead rules for a sequential learning-based resource allocation problem.
result Shows that the testing problem can be effectively managed using a partially observable MDP approach.