A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider a version of the stochastic inventory control problem for a spectrally positive Lévy demand process, in which the inventory can only be replenished at independent exponential times. We show the optimality of a periodic barrier replenishment policy that restocks any shortage below a certain threshold at each…
Policy gradient methods with aggregated states can achieve better performance than approximate policy iteration.
problem Approximation errors in policy and value function approximations.
method State-aggregated representations and policy gradient methods.
result Policy gradient methods can achieve a per-period regret bounded by ε, while approximate policy iteration and value iteration have a higher regret.
Inventory control with unknown demand distribution is considered, with emphasis placed on the case involving discrete nonperishable items. We focus on an adaptive policy which in every period uses, as much as possible, the optimal newsvendor ordering quantity for the empirical distribution learned up to that period. Th…
Optimizes trading strategy considering alpha decay and transaction costs.
problem Maximizing reward in a multi-period portfolio with transaction costs and alpha decay.
method Formulated as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, solved using a modified value iteration algorithm with convergence proof and asymptotic analysis.
result Characterized optimal trading policy that maximizes average expected reward.
The OGY method is one of control methods for a chaotic system. In the method, we have to calculate a stabilizing periodic orbit embedded in its chaotic attractor. Thus, we cannot use this method in the case where a precise mathematical model of the chaotic system cannot be identified. In this case, the delayed feedback…
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
This paper pretends to analyze the importance which the natural advantages and local resources are in the manufacturing industry location, in relation with the "spillovers" effects and industrial policies. To this, we estimate the Rybczynski equation matrix for the various manufacturing industries in Portugal, at regio…
Enhances financial time series forecasting with a multi-period learning framework.
problem Accurate financial time series forecasting requires considering both short-term and long-term trends.
method Proposes a Multi-period Learning Framework (MLF) with three modules: Inter-period Redundancy Filtering, Learnable Weighted-average Integration, and Multi-period self-Adaptive Patching.
result Improves financial time series forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average sampling cost does not exceed an upper bound. The outcome distributions are not known. We construc…
Reinforcement learning agents need exploratory behaviors to escape from local optima. These behaviors may include both immediate dithering perturbation and temporally consistent exploration. To achieve these, a stochastic policy model that is inherently consistent through a period of time is in desire, especially for t…
Recent work on imitation learning has generated policies that reproduce expert behavior from multi-modal data. However, past approaches have focused only on recreating a small number of distinct, expert maneuvers, or have relied on supervised learning techniques that produce unstable policies. This work extends InfoGAI…
We approximate the distribution of total expenditure of a retail company over warranty claims incurred in a fixed period [0, T], say the following quarter. We consider two kinds of warranty policies, namely, the non-renewing free replacement warranty policy and the non-renewing pro-rata warranty policy. Our approximati…
Feed in tariff (FiT) is one of the most efficient ways that many governments throughout the world use to stimulate investment in renewable energies (REs) technology. For governments, financial management of the policy is very challenging as that it needs a considerable amount of budget to support RE producers during th…
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear funct…