A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.
Unified approach combines prediction-powered inference and variance reduction for semi-supervised optimization.
Framework for precise recall control in spatial conflation tasks.
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "d…
Repo dealers' market power affects bond prices by up to 2 percentage points.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
Improves trial efficiency by adjusting for historical prognostic scores.
A new KF handles outliers without MSE loss.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
Study shows accuracy of neural networks depends more on error location than percentage of error.
TT-DAC-PS: A deterministic actor-critic approach for optimal trade execution
A hybrid physics-ML model predicts FO water flux with high accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
SPO optimizes LLMs by eliminating group-based baselines and variance issues.
We investigate hierarchical structures of the European countries by using debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the countries as they change over a certain period of time. We obtain the topological properties among the countries based on debt as a percentage of GDP of European countries over the perio…
This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables are project type (road, rail, and fixed link projects), project size (measured i…
SLEID detects illicit accounts in DeFi transactions using semi-supervised learning.
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
Latent factor models are the canonical statistical tool for exploratory analyses of low-dimensional linear structure for an observation matrix with p features across n samples. We develop a structured Bayesian group factor analysis model that extends the factor model to multiple coupled observation matrices; in the cas…
We derive explicit recursive formulas for Target Close (TC) and Implementation Shortfall (IS) in the Almgren-Chriss framework. We explain how to compute the optimal starting and stopping times for IS and TC, respectively, given a minimum trading size. We also show how to add a minimum participation rate constraint (Per…
Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we propose a deep neural network that considers features from connected markets to improv…
This paper derives a robust on-line equity trading algorithm that achieves the greatest possible percentage of the final wealth of the best pairs rebalancing rule in hindsight. A pairs rebalancing rule chooses some pair of stocks in the market and then perpetually executes rebalancing trades so as to maintain a target …
Analyzes ESG impact on stock market performance using social media and news data.
QTAML models quantum tunneling errors for AI robustness.
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
In many European countries the growth of the real GDP per capita has been linear since 1950. An explanation for this linearity is still missing. We propose that in artificial intelligence we may find models for a linear growth of performance. We also discuss possible consequences of the fact that in systems with linear…
We propose deep convolutional Gaussian processes, a deep Gaussian process architecture with convolutional structure. The model is a principled Bayesian framework for detecting hierarchical combinations of local features for image classification. We demonstrate greatly improved image classification performance compared …
Automates phased release strategy to balance risk and speed.
It is well known that the distribution of returns from various financial instruments are leptokurtic, meaning that the distributions have "fatter tails" than a Normal distribution, and have skew toward zero. This paper presents a graceful micro-level explanation for such fat-tailed outcomes, using agents whose private …
This paper studies the switching of trading strategies and its effect on the market volatility in a continuous double auction market. We describe the behavior when some uninformed agents, who we call switchers, decide whether or not to pay for information before they trade. By paying for the information they behave as …
Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU c…
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
Nonlinear conjugate gradient (NLCG) based optimizers have shown superior loss convergence properties compared to gradient descent based optimizers for traditional optimization problems. However, in Deep Neural Network (DNN) training, the dominant optimization algorithm of choice is still Stochastic Gradient Descent (SG…
New algorithm PRACTISE accelerates networks with tiny sets, reducing latency by 22%.
This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…
Model predicts S&P 500 IT sector index prices with high accuracy.
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occas…
A well-known conjecture in knot theory says that the percentage of hyperbolic knots amongst all of the prime knots of or fewer crossings approaches as approaches infinity. In this paper, it is proved that this conjecture contradicts several other plausible conjectures, including the 120-year-old conjectur…
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
Study new conjectures linking knot volume and knot cohomology.
This paper presents a new approach to a robust Gaussian process (GP) regression. Most existing approaches replace an outlier-prone Gaussian likelihood with a non-Gaussian likelihood induced from a heavy tail distribution, such as the Laplace distribution and Student-t distribution. However, the use of a non-Gaussian li…
Proposes GAAE for high-fidelity audio generation and representation learning.
We introduce the SaaS Algorithm for semi-supervised learning, which uses learning speed during stochastic gradient descent in a deep neural network to measure the quality of an iterative estimate of the posterior probability of unknown labels. Training speed in supervised learning correlates strongly with the percentag…
This paper considers the problem of robust subspace recovery: given a set of points in , if many lie in a -dimensional subspace, then can we recover the underlying subspace? We show that Tyler's M-estimator can be used to recover the underlying subspace, if the percentage of the inliers is larger t…
In the recent years, we have witnessed the development of multi-label classification methods which utilize the structure of the label space in a divide and conquer approach to improve classification performance and allow large data sets to be classified efficiently. Yet most of the available data sets have been provide…
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
Warfarin dosing remains challenging due to narrow therapeutic index and highly individual variability. Incorrect warfarin dosing is associated with devastating adverse events. Remarkable efforts have been made to develop the machine learning based warfarin dosing algorithms incorporating clinical factors and genetic va…
SAGA predicts multi-year earnings with adaptive intervals, improving forecast accuracy.