Partial covariance factorizes in path diagrams, simplifying analysis.
problem Understanding partial covariance in complex diagrams.
method Factorization of partial covariance over nodes and edges.
result Simpson's paradox cannot occur in singly-connected diagrams.
The regularization path of the Lasso can be shown to be piecewise linear, making it possible to "follow" and explicitly compute the entire path. We analyze in this paper this popular strategy, and prove that its worst case complexity is exponential in the number of variables. We then oppose this pessimistic result to a…
Study on Frechet distance properties for paths and graphs.
problem Understanding topological properties of Frechet distance spaces.
method Proving path-connectedness of Frechet distance spaces and metric balls.
result Spaces of paths and graphs under Frechet distance are path-connected.
New cutoff phenomenon found for geodesic paths on hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Understanding the cutoff phenomenon for geodesic paths on hyperbolic manifolds.
method Spectral strategy and detailed spectral analysis of the spherical mean operator.
result Geodesic paths on compact hyperbolic manifolds exhibit cutoff for spatially localized initial conditions.
New method identifies causal structure in count data using cumulants and path analysis.
problem Challenges in discovering causal structure from count data, especially due to non-identifiability.
method Poisson Branching Structural Causal Model (PB-SCM) with path analysis using high-order cumulants.
result Causal order is identifiable under specific conditions in PB-SCM using cumulant information.
New AI method generates SDE paths without explicit coefficients.
problem Simulating unknown Markovian SDEs with limited data.
method Uses conditional diffusion models on sample paths.
result Consistently outperforms alternative methods in KL divergence.
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
A new method detects anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
problem Detect anomalies in multivariate streams without unit dependence.
method Proposes SigMahaKNN combining variance norm and path signature.
result SigMahaKNN detects anomalies better than existing methods.
This work develops a generic framework, called the bag-of-paths (BoP), for link and network data analysis. The central idea is to assign a probability distribution on the set of all paths in a network. More precisely, a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution is defined over a bag of paths in a network, that is, on a representati…
We study the complexity of the entire regularization path for least squares regression with 1-norm penalty, known as the Lasso. Every regression parameter in the Lasso changes linearly as a function of the regularization value. The number of changes is regarded as the Lasso's complexity. Experimental results using exac…
New analysis of annealing paths in sampling and estimation.
problem Sampling from complex distributions and estimating normalization constants.
method Extending known results on Bregman divergence to quasi-arithmetic means under monotonic embedding.
result Analogous result for quasi-arithmetic means, highlighting the interplay between means, parametric families, and divergence functionals.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
problem Analyzing risk and return for dynamic trading strategies without probabilistic assumptions.
method Pathwise analysis of trading signals using δ-excursions.
result Continuous paths can be uniquely decomposed into δ-excursions.
PSLR classifies functional data with scalar covariates using path signatures.
problem Classical functional logistic regression models have limitations in capturing nonlinear and cross-channel dependencies.
method PSLR uses truncated path signatures to create a basis-free representation of functional data.
result PSLR outperforms traditional functional classifiers in accuracy and robustness, especially under non-uniform sampling.
We introduce a new feature map for barcodes that arise in persistent homology computation. The main idea is to first realize each barcode as a path in a convenient vector space, and to then compute its path signature which takes values in the tensor algebra of that vector space. The composition of these two operations …
Novel approach to financial derivatives pricing using rough path theory.
problem No-arbitrage conditions in financial markets necessitating precise integration methods.
method Developed a polynomial-based approximation class for rough path functionals, extending to non-geometric rough paths.
result Motivated a hypothesis for payoff functionals in financial markets, facilitating analysis.
In high-dimensional data analysis, penalized likelihood estimators are shown to provide superior results in both variable selection and parameter estimation. A new algorithm, APPLE, is proposed for calculating the Approximate Path for Penalized Likelihood Estimators. Both the convex penalty (such as LASSO) and the nonc…
Improved dynamic regret analysis for strongly convex and smooth functions.
problem Analyzing dynamic regret for online learning algorithms.
method Improved analysis of the Online Multiple Gradient Descent (OMGD) algorithm.
result Achieved a best-of-three-worlds guarantee for dynamic regret.
The paper argues for using more degrees of freedom in empirical financial analysis to improve conclusions.
problem Improving trustworthiness of financial analysis conclusions.
method Using more degrees of freedom and forking paths in multiple testing.
result Forking paths raises the bar for significance in multiple testing.
Introduces q-paths for generalizing geometric annealing paths in machine learning.
problem Limited applicability of existing path methods in machine learning.
method Develops a family of paths derived from a generalized mean, including geometric and arithmetic mixtures.
result Empirical gains in Bayesian inference and generative model evaluation.
In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent deriv…
Proposes an efficient shrinkage path for ridge regression.
problem Ill-conditioned data in linear models.
method A new generalized ridge regression shrinkage path that minimizes MSE risk.
result The path is as short as possible while maintaining optimal trade-off.
Deep neural RDEs improve portfolio optimization accuracy and risk sensitivity.
problem High-dimensional, path-dependent valuation and control problems.
method Coupling truncated log-signatures with a neural RDE backbone.
result Improved accuracy, tail fidelity, and training stability across various financial models.
Extends Itô's formula for path-dependent functions in finance.
problem Modeling and hedging of path-dependent financial options.
method Functional extension of Itô's formula for C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes.
result Validates the hedging or superhedging problems for path-dependent options.
In this paper, we report a "new" continuity path which links the constant scalar curvature equation to a second order elliptic equation. This is largely an expository article where we describes various aspects of geometry and analysis associated with path.
Develops methods to find most probable paths on complex manifolds.
problem Identifying optimal paths for manifold-valued processes, especially those with non-trivial structures.
method Constructs a general approach to defining and identifying most probable paths by measuring the Onsager-Machlup function on the anti-development of such processes.
result Derives explicit equations for development most probable paths that encompass various manifold-valued processes.
Closed-form formulas for path-independent options in a specific Lévy model.
problem Valuation of path-independent options in the exponential NIG model.
method Closed-form pricing formulas derived using a factorized representation in Mellin space and complex analysis.
result Valid closed-form formulas with quickly convergent series for various options.
This paper improves tail dependence analysis by introducing a path-based approach.
problem The classical tail dependence coefficient fails to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence.
method The paper introduces a path-based maximal tail dependence approach to capture the most pronounced feature of dependence over all possible paths.
result The paper proves the existence and provides an explicit characterization of the path-based maximal TDC, improving analytical and computational tractability.
We use Karhunen-Loève expansion for efficient pricing of exotic derivatives.
problem Efficient pricing of path-dependent options.
method Karhunen-Loève expansion and Monte Carlo simulation.
result Fast and accurate computation of exotic derivatives pricing.
New method detects and clusters market regimes in multidimensional data.
problem Detecting and clustering market regimes in complex data structures.
method Non-parametric online market regime detection and clustering using path-wise two-sample tests and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Successfully detected and clustered market regimes in various data structures.
Proposes a novel path generation and evaluation method for video games.
problem Generating and evaluating realistic navigation paths for video games.
method Combines nonparametric model-free transformations and copula models.
result Demonstrates precise and interpretable generation of diverse navigation paths.
The paper reveals surprising star-shaped connectivity in neural networks.
problem Understanding mode connectivity in neural network landscapes.
method Fine-grained analysis of connectivity in overparameterized and finite minima cases.
result Star-shaped connectivity exists in neural network landscapes, suggesting near convexity.
Path signatures adapted for Lie groups improve action recognition in computer vision.
problem Improving action recognition in computer vision with geometric constraints.
method Lifting path signatures to Lie groups and proving universality and characteristic property.
result Path signatures on Lie groups provide comparable performance to shallow learning approaches in action recognition.
Unified algorithm for optimizing rewards in stochastic path problems.
problem Optimizing rewards in stochastic path problems with unknown reward scales.
method A simple optimistic algorithm with regret guarantees.
result Regret bound matches best known results for SSP with all non-positive rewards.
We explain the topology of the space, so called, Fredholm-Lagrangian-Grassmannain and the quantity ``Maslov index'' for paths in this space based on the standard theory of Functional Analysis. Our standing point is to define the Maslov index for arbitrary paths in terms of the fundamental spectral property of the Fredh…
We provide theoretical analysis of the statistical and computational properties of penalized M-estimators that can be formulated as the solution to a possibly nonconvex optimization problem. Many important estimators fall in this category, including least squares regression with nonconvex regularization, generalized …
We investigate the extension of the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method to jump-diffusion SDEs. We consider models with finite rate activity, using a jump-adapted discretisation in which the jump times are computed and added to the standard uniform dis- cretisation times. The key component in multilevel analy…
Develops pathwise analysis for log-optimal portfolios using rough paths theory.
problem Analyzing stability and approximation of log-optimal portfolios.
method Pathwise approach based on càdlàg rough paths theory.
result Establishes pathwise stability and error estimates for log-optimal portfolios.
Collective classification has been intensively studied due to its impact in many important applications, such as web mining, bioinformatics and citation analysis. Collective classification approaches exploit the dependencies of a group of linked objects whose class labels are correlated and need to be predicted simulta…
Unified approach to stochastic control, filtering, and stopping using rough paths.
problem Addressing gaps in classical problems of stochastic control, filtering, and stopping.
method Combining rough path theory with controlled rough paths to provide a pathwise deterministic framework.
result Established rigorous connection between candidate solutions and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
Diagonal linear networks converge to lasso regularization path during training.
problem Understanding the regularization behavior of diagonal linear networks.
method Analyzing the training trajectory of diagonal linear networks and comparing it to the lasso regularization path.
result The training trajectory of diagonal linear networks is closely related to the lasso regularization path.
Many introductory courses in quantum mechanics include Feynman's time-slicing definition of the path integral, with a complete derivation of the propagator in the simplest of cases. However, attempts to generalize this, for instance to non-quadratic potentials, encounter formidable analytic issues in showing the succes…
DALMC provides non-asymptotic error bounds for generative models.
problem Efficiently generating samples from complex data distributions.
method Analysis of diffusion paths and Langevin Monte Carlo.
result Theoretical guarantees for a class of generative models.
Quantum computing speeds up analysis of financial stochastic processes.
problem Challenging simulation and analysis of continuous time stochastic processes.
method Established a quantum framework for efficient state preparation and information extraction.
result Extraction of path-dependent and history-sensitive information from stochastic processes efficiently.
New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
By using Hsu's multiplicative functional for the Neumann heat equation, a natural damped gradient operator is defined for the reflecting Brownian motion on compact manifolds with boundary. This operator is linked to quasi-invariant flows in terms of a integration by parts formula, which leads to the standard log-Sobole…
The statistical analysis of data lying on a differentiable, locally Euclidean, manifold introduces a variety of challenges because the analogous measures to standard Euclidean statistics are local, that is only defined within a neighbourhood of each datapoint. This is because the curvature of the space means that the c…
In implicit models, one often interpolates between sampled points in latent space. As we show in this paper, care needs to be taken to match-up the distributional assumptions on code vectors with the geometry of the interpolating paths. Otherwise, typical assumptions about the quality and semantics of in-between points…