A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
nFBST tests neural networks using Bayesian methods.
FSR efficiently discovers significant patterns with few resampled datasets.
Paper presents a machine learning method to improve significance tests for misspecified linear models.
Investigates the number of experiments needed for statistical significance in medication testing.
The paper proposes a method to find subgroups with significant treatment effects in noisy data.
Significant pattern mining, the problem of finding itemsets that are significantly enriched in one class of objects, is statistically challenging, as the large space of candidate patterns leads to an enormous multiple testing problem. Recently, the concept of testability was proposed as one approach to correct for mult…
Factor analysis or sometimes referred to as variable analysis has been extensively used in classification problems for identifying specific factors that are significant to particular classes. This type of analysis has been widely used in application such as customer segmentation, medical research, network traffic, imag…
New method tracks significant shifts in nonparametric bandits.
The paper compares two spectrum definitions and finds stability in one modification.
We introduce a minorization-maximization approach to optimizing common measures of discovery significance in high energy physics. The approach alternates between solving a weighted binary classification problem and updating class weights in a simple, closed-form manner. Moreover, an argument based on convex duality sho…
We develop a simple and computationally efficient significance test for the features of a machine learning model. Our forward-selection approach applies to any model specification, learning task and variable type. The test is non-asymptotic, straightforward to implement, and does not require model refitting. It identif…
New method quantifies deep kNN anomaly detection significance.
si4onnx enables selective inference on deep learning models.
The paper integrates statistical significance and discriminative power in pattern discovery.
We assume data sampled from a mixture of d-dimensional linear subspaces with spherically symmetric distributions within each subspace and an additional outlier component with spherically symmetric distribution within the ambient space (for simplicity we may assume that all distributions are uniform on their correspondi…
We consider the problem of defining the significance of an itemset. We say that the itemset is significant if we are surprised by its frequency when compared to the frequencies of its sub-itemsets. In other words, we estimate the frequency of the itemset from the frequencies of its sub-itemsets and compute the deviatio…
This paper predicts significant stock price changes using neural networks.
We discuss a common suspicion about reported financial data, in 10 industrial sectors of the 6 so called "main developing countries" over the time interval [2000-2014]. These data are examined through Benford's law first significant digit and through distribution distances tests. It is shown that several visually anoma…
Analyzing large-scale, multi-experiment studies requires scientists to test each experimental outcome for statistical significance and then assess the results as a whole. We present Black Box FDR (BB-FDR), an empirical-Bayes method for analyzing multi-experiment studies when many covariates are gathered per experiment.…
Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Net…
Paper uses machine learning to forecast significant currency exchange rate fluctuations.
Paper proposes a machine learning method to predict sale efficacy.
Using methods introduced by Scargle in 1978 we derive a cumulative version of the Lomb periodogram that exhibits frequency independent statistics when applied to cumulative noise. We show how this cumulative Lomb periodogram allows us to estimate the significance of log-periodic signatures in the S&P 500 anti-bubble th…
Deep learning model predicts wind-wave relationship.
We investigated financial market data to determine which factors affect information flow between stocks. Two factors, the time dependency and the degree of efficiency, were considered in the analysis of Korean, the Japanese, the Taiwanese, the Canadian, and US market data. We found that the frequency of the significant…
Develops a new method for neural network significance testing without strict constraints.
Study finds significant premium for low-beta stocks in firm-level idiosyncratic return distributions.
New algorithm tracks changes in infinite action space rewards.
A hybrid algorithm fuses significance-based splitting with honest sample-splitting for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
Study shows SEC crypto classification led to significant market reactions.
Attention models have had a significant positive impact on deep learning across a range of tasks. However previous attempts at integrating attention with reinforcement learning have failed to produce significant improvements. We propose the first combination of self attention and reinforcement learning that is capable …
The search for higher-order feature interactions that are statistically significantly associated with a class variable is of high relevance in fields such as Genetics or Healthcare, but the combinatorial explosion of the candidate space makes this problem extremely challenging in terms of computational efficiency and p…
The paper improves asymmetric causality tests by addressing inefficiencies and statistical significance issues.
Develops significance tests for neural networks without strong assumptions or excessive computation.
We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly depends on the direction of the arrow of time. In ideal (synthetic) conditions, test…
Style Miner generates stable and significant style factors for time series analysis.
The recent advent of `Internet of Things' (IOT) has increased the demand for enabling AI-based edge computing. This has necessitated the search for efficient implementations of neural networks in terms of both computations and storage. Although extreme quantization has proven to be a powerful tool to achieve significan…
The sophisticated structure of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) allows for outstanding performance, but at the cost of intensive computation. As significant redundancies inevitably present in such a structure, many works have been proposed to prune the convolutional filters for computation cost reduction. Although ex…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use transaction volume probability to describe price volatility uncertainty and intens…
One of the fundamental tasks of science is to find explainable relationships between observed phenomena. One approach to this task that has received attention in recent years is based on probabilistic graphical modelling with sparsity constraints on model structures. In this paper, we describe two new approaches to Bay…
New method tracks significant arm switches to improve bandit algorithms.
Proposes a method to calibrate data for more accurate linear correlation testing.
Graph Neural Networks improve financial time series forecasting accuracy.
This paper reviews Douglas curvature in Finsler geometry.
Unlike common cancers, such as those of the prostate and breast, tumor grading in rare cancers is difficult and largely undefined because of small sample sizes, the sheer volume of time needed to undertake on such a task, and the inherent difficulty of extracting human-observed patterns. One of the most challenging exa…
Non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) are single nucleotide substitution occurring in the coding region of a gene and leads to a change in amino-acid sequence of protein. The studies have shown these variations may be associated with disease. Thus, investigating the effects of nsSNPs on protein functi…
Process Monitoring involves tracking a system's behaviors, evaluating the current state of the system, and discovering interesting events that require immediate actions. In this paper, we consider monitoring temporal system state sequences to help detect the changes of dynamic systems, check the divergence of the syste…
The problem of finding itemsets that are statistically significantly enriched in a class of transactions is complicated by the need to correct for multiple hypothesis testing. Pruning untestable hypotheses was recently proposed as a strategy for this task of significant itemset mining. It was shown to lead to greater s…