The PC algorithm allows investigators to estimate a complete partially directed acyclic graph (CPDAG) from a finite dataset, but few groups have investigated strategies for estimating and controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) of the edges in the CPDAG. In this paper, we introduce PC with p-values (PC-p), a fast al…
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48 results for “p-value computation”
Structural equation models and Bayesian networks have been widely used to study causal relationships between continuous variables. Recently, a non-Gaussian method called LiNGAM was proposed to discover such causal models and has been extended in various directions. An important problem with LiNGAM is that the results a…
We provide a new local class-purity theorem for Lipschitz continuous DNN classifiers. In addition, we discuss how to achieve classification margin for training samples. Finally, we describe how to compute margin p-values for test samples.
Image segmentation is one of the most fundamental tasks of computer vision. In many practical applications, it is essential to properly evaluate the reliability of individual segmentation results. In this study, we propose a novel framework to provide the statistical significance of segmentation results in the form of …
The paper develops p-values for outlier detection using conformal inference.
problem Detecting outliers in nonparametric data sets.
method Conformal inference framework for constructing marginally valid but mutually dependent p-values.
result Valid p-values for outlier detection with conditional independence and marginal false discovery rate control.
Logistic regression for brain imaging without p-values.
problem Computing the distribution of random field suprema is hard.
method Uses logistic regression for brain network classification.
result Performs classification at each edge level without preselected features.
We propose a differentiable sigmoid function for efficient p-value calculation in clustering.
problem Efficient and accurate p-value calculation for clustering algorithms.
method Designed a differentiable sigmoid function to approximate the Dip-p-value transformation.
result Accelerates computation and integrates well with gradient descent-based learning schemes.
Computing Valid p-value for Optimal Changepoint by Selective Inference using Dynamic Programmingstat.ML
Paper introduces a method to assess the statistical reliability of changepoints using selective inference and dynamic programming.
problem Assessing the statistical reliability of detected changepoints.
method Selective inference framework combined with dynamic programming for exact p-value computation.
result Proposes a method with high statistical power and decent computational efficiency.
This paper improves prediction accuracy for multi-input classification tasks using p-value aggregation.
problem Generating accurate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage for multi-input classification tasks.
method Integrates p-values from each observation to reduce the size of the predicted label set while maintaining class-conditional coverage.
result The method reduces the size of the predicted label set while preserving the required coverage guarantee.
We present the expected values from p-value hacking as a choice of the minimum p-value among independents tests, which can be considerably lower than the "true" p-value, even with a single trial, owing to the extreme skewness of the meta-distribution. We first present an exact probability distribution (meta-distrib…
Valid p-value for bounded random variables without distributional assumptions.
problem Calibration of predictive algorithms in a distribution-free setting.
method Built a super-uniform p-value based on a concentration inequality.
result Super-uniform p-value is tighter than existing alternatives.
Proposes a method to quantify the reliability of salient regions in deep learning models using p-values.
problem Difficulty in assessing the reliability of saliency maps generated by deep learning models.
method Proposes a selective inference framework to quantify the reliability of salient regions as selected hypotheses by deep learning models.
result The method can provably control the probability of false positive detections of salient regions.
This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences in the first-order structures of spatial point patterns. The proposed approach leverages the kernel mean embedding in a novel way by introducing its approximate version tailored to spatial point processes. While the original embedding is infinite-dimensional a…
New method reduces computational cost for selective inference.
problem Over-conditioning in selective inference.
method Parametric programming-based selective inference (PP-based SI) with bounded p-values.
result Reduced computational cost while maintaining desired precision.
Estimates peeking effects in p-values to correct bias.
problem Data peeking biases reported p-values downward.
method Develops mechanisms to estimate running extrema of test statistics.
result Corrects bias in p-values due to peeking.
The paper introduces localized conformal p-values for conditional testing problems.
problem Addressing conditional testing problems in statistics.
method Localized conformal p-values defined by inverting prediction intervals.
result Proposes procedures for conditional outlier detection and label screening with FDR and FWER control.
P-values for classificationmath.ST
Let be a random variable consisting of an observed feature vector and an unobserved class label with unknown joint distribution. In addition, let be a training data set consisting of completely observed independent copies of . Usual classification…
This paper studies the geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial parameters.
problem Determining if minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes are disjoint.
method Enumerating and covering the continuous regions of the exact p-value function to study the geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets.
result The geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial parameters is studied, providing insights into their structure and properties.
New method converts p-values to e-values for more efficient CP and aggregation.
problem Limitations of existing p-to-e calibrators in CP setting.
method Proposes a novel P2E calibrator for set-preserving calibration.
result Significant efficiency gains over existing p-to-e calibrators.
Many model selection algorithms produce a path of fits specifying a sequence of increasingly complex models. Given such a sequence and the data used to produce them, we consider the problem of choosing the least complex model that is not falsified by the data. Extending the selected-model tests of Fithian et al. (2014)…
E-CIT framework reduces CITs' computational burden and improves causal discovery performance.
problem High computational cost of traditional CITs in causal discovery.
method E-CIT framework using divide-and-aggregate strategy with stable distribution p-value combination.
result Significant reduction in computational burden and competitive performance in causal discovery.
CEDA improves understanding of data fit to models.
problem Real-world data often deviates from theoretical models.
method Categorical Exploratory Data Analysis (CEDA) to highlight deviations.
result CEDA reveals where and how data fits or deviates from models.
Conformal Test Martingales can be 'blind' to significant changes in data distribution.
problem The converse of exchangeability does not hold, leading to potential blindness of CTMs.
method Explicit construction of -cryptic change-point using bivariate Gaussian distributions.
result CTMs can be perfectly cryptic to a significant change in marginal means.
Unified Bayesian framework improves clinical trial hypothesis testing.
problem Lack of transparency and inability to quantify evidence in traditional P-values.
method Interval null hypothesis framework combined with Bayes factor-based tests.
result Bayesian interval hypothesis testing ensures frequentist error control and interpretability.
A communication-efficient method controls FDR in network settings.
problem Controlling FDR in networks with limited communication.
method Sample-and-Forward: a flexible procedure for multihop networks.
result Nodes can control FDR without sharing p-values, achieving power and FDR control.
Assigning significance in high-dimensional regression is challenging. Most computationally efficient selection algorithms cannot guard against inclusion of noise variables. Asymptotically valid p-values are not available. An exception is a recent proposal by Wasserman and Roeder (2008) which splits the data into two pa…
Novel algorithm identifies nonlinear Granger causal relationships using kernel ridge regression.
problem Identification of nonlinear Granger causal relationships.
method Flexible plug-in architecture with kernel ridge regression using radial basis function.
result Kernel ridge regression in mlcausality achieves competitive AUC scores and more finely calibrated p-values.
A new efficient test addresses limitations of knockoffs for conditional independence testing.
problem Testing conditional independence under model-X assumptions.
method Leave-One-Covariate-Out Conditional Randomization Test (LOCO-CRT)
result LOCO-CRT produces valid -values for familywise error rate control with minimal variability.
RealStats detects fake images rigorously, combining multiple detectors for robustness.
problem Detecting AI-generated images remains challenging due to evolving generative models.
method Combines training-free statistics to compute p-values and aggregate them for a unified real-image distribution.
result Framework produces interpretable probability scores for robust fake image detection.
A method selects candidates based on predictions with statistical control.
problem Screening candidates for resource-intensive steps like hiring or drug discovery.
method Wraps around any prediction model to produce a subset of candidates with controlled false selection rate.
result Empirically demonstrates selection of candidates whose predictions exceed a data-dependent threshold.
The paper confirms two groups of gamma-ray bursts using a new nonparametric metric.
problem Determining the number of inherent groups in gamma-ray bursts.
method A new nonparametric interpoint distance-based measure, combined with clustering methods.
result Confirms two groups of short and long gamma-ray bursts.
Paper certifies intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
problem Certifying intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
method Exploits likelihood ordering to induce halfspace constraints, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning and computable bounds on p-values.
result Efficient and provably sound algorithm for certifying intersection, disjointness, or indeterminate result.
New method tests Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.
problem Testing Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.
method Proposes a new approach to aggregate p-values from panel members to test Granger non-causality, showing lower FDR.
result Our approach discovers true causal relations in panel data, unlike state-of-the-art methods.
E-values enhance conformal prediction methods.
problem Distribution-free uncertainty quantification.
method Reformulation of conformal prediction using e-values.
result E-values offer new theoretical and practical capabilities.
Generative AI can solve in-context learning problems using a martingale perspective.
problem Estimating when a conditional generative model can solve an in-context learning problem.
method Bayesian interpretation, ancestral sampling, generative predictive p-value.
result Developed a method to assess the suitability of CGMs for ICL problems using generative predictive p-values.
This paper introduces a new method to compare collections of distributions on manifolds and graphs.
problem Comparing collections of probability distributions over diverse domains.
method Intrinsic slicing construction for Wasserstein distances, Hilbert embedding, resampling, p-value combination.
result Powerful and well-calibrated p-values for comparing distributions on manifolds and graphs.
Paper extends SI method for detecting CPs in complex systems' frequency domain.
problem Identifying change points in complex systems' frequency domain.
method Extends SI framework to frequency domain using DFT properties and develops valid p-values.
result Reliable detection of genuine CPs with strong statistical guarantees.
The most popular approach for analyzing survival data is the Cox regression model. The Cox model may, however, be misspecified, and its proportionality assumption may not always be fulfilled. An alternative approach for survival prediction is random forests for survival outcomes. The standard split criterion for random…
Integrative conformal p-values for powerful out-of-distribution testing with labeled outliersstat.ME
Novel conformal methods test out-of-distribution data with labeled outliers.
problem Testing whether new data comes from the same distribution as a reference.
method Integrative conformal p-values re-weight standard p-values using dependent side information.
result The methods outperform standard conformal p-values in simulations and applications.
Capillary curvature imagesmath.DG
Solves capillary curvature problems for specific p values.
problem Capillary curvature problems for and .
method Iterative scheme based on capillary Minkowski problem and capillary curvature image operators.
result Fixed points of capillary curvature image operators correspond to solutions of capillary -Minkowski problem.
Optimized Conformal Selection: Powerful Selective Inference After Conformity Score Optimizationstat.ME
OptCS optimizes model selection after conformal inference, controlling FDR and power loss.
problem Challenges in model selection for conformal inference, especially when limited labeled data and many model choices are available.
method OptCS framework that allows valid statistical testing after flexible data-driven model optimization, using novel multiple testing procedures.
result Valid conformal p-values constructed despite substantial data reuse, maintaining FDR control.
Method predicts rarity of image features to support research integrity investigations.
problem Difficulty in determining if image reuse is by chance or intentional.
method Statistical estimation of ORB features' chance occurrence across PubMed Open Access Subset dataset.
result The method produces decreasingly smaller p-values for more complex imagery, supporting null hypothesis.
Unified theoretical guarantees for distribution-free changepoint detection and testing.
problem Distribution-free changepoint inference with finite-sample validity and consistency.
method Distribution-free changepoint localization using conformal p-values with theoretical guarantees.
result Unified distribution-free guarantees for changepoint detection, localization, and testing.
New algorithms predict causal links better than traditional methods in time series data.
problem Learning causal structure from time series data with challenges in real-world Earth sciences.
method Combination of established ideas for linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, with a focus on large regression coefficients.
result Large regression coefficients can predict causal links better than small p-values in practice.
LASLA improves multiple testing accuracy with network-structured data.
problem Efficiently incorporating complex side information into multiple testing.
method Locally adaptive structure learning algorithm (LASLA) integrating auxiliary information.
result LASLA asymptotically controls FDR and enhances power with side information.
We propose a linear-time, single-pass, top-down algorithm for multiple testing on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent hypotheses and edges specify a partial ordering in which hypotheses must be tested. The procedure is guaranteed to reject a sub-DAG with bounded false discovery rate (FDR) while satisf…
FlowSelect uses normalizing flows to control FDR in feature selection.
problem Controlled feature selection with knockoffs often fails to control false discovery rate (FDR).
method FlowSelect uses normalizing flows for accurate feature modeling and a novel MCMC-based p-value calculation to enforce knockoff properties.
result FlowSelect consistently controls FDR and demonstrates greater power compared to competing methods.
Python package 'nonconform' simplifies conformal anomaly detection.
problem Heuristic thresholding in anomaly detection systems.
method 'nonconform' package converts anomaly scores into calibrated p-values.
result Statistically principled anomaly detection is made accessible.