Unified framework for output analysis using Monte Carlo sampling.
problem Accurately assess the quality of estimated values in predictive models.
method Unified output analysis framework through Monte Carlo sampling, leveraging fast iterative bootstrap sampling and higher-order influence functions.
result Clear advantage in building more robust confidence intervals with higher coverage probability.
Optimal estimator derived for partially observable LTI systems.
problem Optimal estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
method State-space representation for derivation of optimal estimator.
result Derivation of minimum error variance estimator for partially observable LTI systems.
New method selects inputs for Bayesian regression with few samples.
problem Optimal experimental design for high-dimensional inputs.
method Output-weighted optimal sampling using Bayesian regression.
result New criterion considers output values of existing samples.
This paper proposes a fast method for estimating input-dependent prediction intervals in Extreme Learning Machines.
problem Estimating reliable prediction intervals for Extreme Learning Machines with heteroscedastic outputs.
method A separate Extreme Learning Machine model estimates input-dependent prediction intervals using a weighted Jackknife method to correct for model uncertainty.
result The proposed method is fast, robust to heteroscedastic outputs, and handles large datasets and insufficient training data.
Paper proposes diagnostics for error and variance estimation in randomized matrix computations.
problem Safe use of randomized matrix algorithms in applications.
method Leave-one-out error estimator and jackknife resampling method.
result Provides rapid diagnostics to assess quality of randomized matrix computations.
Linking output sensitivity to deep learning generalization.
problem Understanding and comparing the generalization properties of deep neural networks.
method Linking the loss function to output sensitivity and analyzing its relation to bias-variance decomposition.
result Output sensitivity is a strong metric for comparing generalization performance of deep networks.
Proposes FOAGP for efficient orthogonal effect decomposition of black-box computer experiments.
problem Challenges in sensitivity analysis of black-box computer experiments with complex, nonlinear functional outputs.
method Functional-output orthogonal additive Gaussian process (FOAGP) with conditional orthogonality constraint.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in orthogonal effect decomposition and variance decomposition through simulations and real-world application.
New method corrects deep neural network variance for outlier data.
problem Outliers in deep neural network outputs.
method Gradient Conjugate Priors (GCP) network.
result Corrected variance is in a small neighborhood of ground truth variance.
Active learning aims to train a classifier as fast as possible with as few labels as possible. The core element in virtually any active learning strategy is the criterion that measures the usefulness of the unlabeled data based on which new points to be labeled are picked. We propose a novel approach which we refer to …
New method evaluates feature interactions using orthogonal variance decomposition.
problem Feature selection fails to account for interactions between features.
method Orthogonal variance decomposition to evaluate feature subsets considering interactions.
result Our method accurately identifies relevant features and improves model accuracy.
Study on neural networks' performance under different normalizations as N grows.
problem Characterizing neural networks' performance under various normalizations.
method Developed an asymptotic expansion to analyze statistical output of shallow neural networks.
result No bias-variance trade-off exists to leading order in N, and variance decreases as normalization approaches mean field.
Surrogate model construction for vector-valued outputs
problem Improving surrogate model accuracy and stability for complex engineering systems
method Adaptive sequential sampling for polynomial chaos expansion
result Improves surrogate accuracy and stability
Normalization effects on deep neural networks impact output variance and test accuracy.
problem The impact of normalization on deep neural networks' statistical behavior and test accuracy.
method Asymptotic expansion analysis of neural network's output for different γi values. result Equal γi values (one) provide the best statistical behavior and test accuracy. A new approach to VAEs tackles variance shrinkage using quantile regression.
problem Variance shrinkage in VAEs leads to underestimation of uncertainty.
method Using quantile regression to estimate mean and variance, avoiding shrinkage.
result Our approach effectively detects anomalies and improves lesion detection.
Federated learning method improves covariate shift adaptation for missing target values.
problem Missing target values in federated learning.
method Federated covariate shift adaptation algorithm for missing target output values.
result Asymptotically unbiased and efficient algorithm for federated learning.
Paper improves distributed mean estimation and variance reduction without relying on input norm.
problem Distributed mean estimation and variance reduction with large input norms.
method Quantization and lattice theory connection for improved error bounds.
result Output error bounds depend only on input distance, not norm.
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.
We adapt the idea of random projections applied to the output space, so as to enhance tree-based ensemble methods in the context of multi-label classification. We show how learning time complexity can be reduced without affecting computational complexity and accuracy of predictions. We also show that random output spac…
Enhances sensitivity analysis for correlated inputs.
problem Estimating sensitivity indices in models with correlated inputs.
method Proposes an extension of Sobol' estimator using a linear correlation model.
result Improves accuracy in variance-based sensitivity analysis.
This paper examines weight initialization for 1-Lipschitz networks to improve robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Improving the robustness of deep neural networks against adversarial attacks.
method Examined weight parametrization of AOL and SLL networks, calculated weight variance bounds, and demonstrated weight decay.
result Weight initialization causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero, and weight variance does not affect output variance distribution.
Improved multivariate conformal prediction by standardizing residuals.
problem Weak conditional coverage in heteroskedastic multivariate settings.
method Natural extension of univariate normalization to multivariate setting, whitening residuals and standardizing local variance.
result Standardized residuals yield asymptotic conditional coverage under certain distributions.
New theory shows how multi-head attention reduces variance and decorrelates outputs.
problem Understanding and optimizing multi-head attention in neural networks.
method Developed a statistical theory linking multi-head attention to ensemble Nadaraya-Watson estimators.
result MHA variance reduction depends on head decorrelation, not just head count.
Optimizes target value in stochastic black box functions.
problem Finding input to minimize expected squared error to target value.
method Derives acquisition functions for expected improvement, probability of improvement, and lower confidence bound, assuming Gaussian aleatoric effects.
result Acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization under certain conditions.
BS-VAE separates decoder variance and beta to improve VAE performance.
problem Blurriness in VAE outputs and difficulty in analyzing model performance.
method Explicitly separates beta and decoder variance in Beta-Sigma VAE.
result Superior performance in natural image synthesis and controllable parameters.
Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which o…
Analytic expressions for deep neural network output under stochastic training.
problem Understanding the impact of noise and hyperparameters on deep neural network performance.
method Taylor expansion of network output to derive analytical expressions for weights and output.
result Noise in training affects generalization by preventing the output from fully converging on train data, but does not provide explicit regularization.
Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
A novel k-NN method estimates conditional mean and variance efficiently.
problem Joint estimation of conditional mean and variance.
method Integrates k-NN with automated variance selection.
result Achieves fast convergence rates and improved precision.
Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.
Optimizes wide low-rank neural networks for reduced parameters and cost.
problem Reducing the number of learnable parameters in wide neural networks.
method Analyzed edge-of-chaos dynamics and derived formulae for optimal weight and bias variances.
result Optimal weight and bias variances for low-rank networks follow from multiplicative scaling.
VB-Score evaluates AI systems without ground truth, revealing robustness.
problem Evaluating AI systems without ground truth labels, especially for entity-centric tasks.
method VB-Score uses variance-bounded evaluation, constraint relaxation, and Monte Carlo sampling.
result VB-Score reveals robustness differences not seen by conventional frameworks.
We propose a unified framework to speed up the existing stochastic matrix factorization (SMF) algorithms via variance reduction. Our framework is general and it subsumes several well-known SMF formulations in the literature. We perform a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of our framework and derive computational and …
Combines neural networks with variational inference for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Overconfident predictions from traditional neural networks and time-consuming Bayesian optimization.
method VIFO (Variational Inference on the Final-Layer Output) using neural networks to learn mean and variance.
result VIFO provides a good tradeoff in run time and uncertainty quantification, especially for out of distribution data.
Reverse sensitivity analysis for risk models under various stresses.
problem Understanding model changes under output stress.
method Deriving the closest stressed distribution and model parameters.
result Numerically efficient method for calculating stressed model.
Improves active learning efficiency by warping input space based on observed outputs.
problem Insensitivity of Gaussian process uncertainty to actual observations.
method Input warping with learned monotone reparameterization to adjust acquisition function behavior.
result Significantly improved sample efficiency across various benchmarks, especially in non-stationary conditions.
Enhances deep neural networks with fixed-mean Gaussian processes for uncertainty estimation.
problem Post-hoc uncertainty estimation of pre-trained deep neural networks.
method Fixed-mean Gaussian processes with variational inference for efficient stochastic optimization.
result FMGP improves uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Prediction and explanation are key objects in supervised machine learning, where predictive models are known as black boxes and explanatory models are known as glass boxes. Explanation provides the necessary and sufficient information to interpret the model output in terms of the model input. It includes assessments of…
A method to analyze neural network performance by measuring layer saturation.
problem Understanding which layers contribute to network performance.
method Layer saturation method: restricts layer output to eigenspace of variance matrix.
result Layer saturation indicates which layers contribute to network performance.
Diffusion models' consistency across splits explained by random matrix theory.
problem Consistency of diffusion models trained on non-overlapping subsets.
method Random matrix theory framework to quantify dataset effects on denoiser and sampling map.
result The theory explains and predicts cross-split disagreement in diffusion models.
Traditionally, multi-layer neural networks use dot product between the output vector of previous layer and the incoming weight vector as the input to activation function. The result of dot product is unbounded, thus increases the risk of large variance. Large variance of neuron makes the model sensitive to the change o…
It is well known that Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods scale poorly with dataset size. A popular class of methods for solving this issue is stochastic gradient MCMC. These methods use a noisy estimate of the gradient of the log posterior, which reduces the per iteration computational cost of the algorithm. Despi…
Paper optimizes MVE network convergence and regularization.
problem Optimizing Mean Variance Estimation networks for better performance.
method Presented two key insights: warm-up period for mean optimization and separate regularization of mean and variance.
result Warm-up period and separate regularization improve MVE network performance.
New initialization schemes preserve fractional moments of weights in deep networks, improving training and test performance.
problem Heavy-tailed distribution of stochastic gradients in DNNs during training.
method Developed initialization schemes that preserve any given fractional moment of order s < 2 over layers for various activations.
result The network output admits a heavy-tailed distribution with finite moments, improving training and test performance.
MEVA aggregates model predictions to improve accuracy without needing model details.
problem Improving model accuracy by combining multiple models.
method Non-intrusive, data-driven framework that treats models as black boxes and optimizes aggregation methods.
result MVA outperforms MEA in estimating aggregated predictions, enhancing robustness and accuracy.
New method improves calibration in multi-output probabilistic models.
problem Challenges in achieving multivariate calibration in multi-output regression.
method General regularization framework to enforce multivariate calibration during training for arbitrary pre-rank functions.
result Significant improvement in calibration across all pre-rank functions without sacrificing predictive accuracy.
PEMC uses ML to enhance Monte Carlo simulations, reducing variance and runtime.
problem Computational inefficiency in Monte Carlo simulations for complex tasks.
method Prediction-Enhanced Monte Carlo (PEMC) framework that uses ML surrogates as predictors.
result PEMC provides unbiased evaluations with reduced variance and runtime compared to standard Monte Carlo.
The key idea of Bayesian optimization is replacing an expensive target function with a cheap surrogate model. By selection of an acquisition function for Bayesian optimization, we trade off between exploration and exploitation. The acquisition function typically depends on the mean and the variance of the surrogate mod…
Methods for unsupervised anomaly detection suffer from the fact that the data is unlabeled, making it difficult to assess the optimality of detection algorithms. Ensemble learning has shown exceptional results in classification and clustering problems, but has not seen as much research in the context of outlier detecti…