In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liqui…
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Introduce Collapsed Effective Operators for higher-order structures.
problem Existing spectral operators decompose topology into separate ranks, leaving practitioners to fuse information back to vertices.
method Introduce Collapsed Effective Operators via Schur complementation of a graded Laplacian.
result Preserves positive semi-definiteness, lowers system energy under higher-order connectivity.
Unified analytic account of correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
problem Correlation emergence and Epps effect in coupled limit order books
method Discrete random-walk description of order flow with creation, cancellation, and diffusion, coupled reaction-diffusion equations with moving reaction boundary
result Realized correlations as a function of aggregation time
New method explains predictive uncertainty by focusing on second-order effects.
problem Explaining predictive uncertainty in machine learning models.
method CovLRP, CovGI, etc., based on second-order effects.
result Predictive uncertainty is dominated by second-order effects.
We define the infinitesimal and geometric orders of an effective Klein geometry G/H. Using these concepts, we prove i) For any integer m>1, there exists an effective Klein geometry G/H of infinitesimal order m such that G/H is a projective variety (Corollary 9). ii) An effective Klein geometry G/H of geometric order M …
Model simulates correlation emergence in two coupled limit order books.
problem Modeling correlation emergence in coupled limit order books.
method Simulated two coupled diffusive limit order books using random walks in the fluid limit, with trader interactions.
result Demonstrated the recovery of an Epps effect from the model.
New method disentangles high-order effects in feature importance.
problem Quantifying cooperative effects in feature importance.
method Adaptive Leave One Covariate Out (LOCO) method to decompose LOCO into two-body and higher-order components.
result Decomposes LOCO into two-body and higher-order components, highlighting synergistic and redundant effects.
Achieved all-orders worldline action for Kerr black hole.
problem Calculating effective action for Kerr black hole.
method Twistor particle theory.
result All-orders worldline effective action for Kerr black hole.
A special group of transformations of the real line cannot act effectively on it.
problem Understanding the limitations of transformations on the real line.
method Analyzing the group of orientation-preserving quasi-isometries of the real line.
result The group of quasi-isometries of the real line cannot act effectively on the line.
The paper identifies causal effects in latent variable models using higher-order cumulants.
problem Challenges in identifying causal effects in latent variable models with latent confounders.
method Using higher-order cumulants, the paper addresses two challenging setups: a single proxy variable and underspecified instrumental variables.
result Causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument.
In this article we quantify the bullwhip effect (the variance amplification in replenishment orders) when demands and lead times are predicted in a simple two-stage supply chain with one supplier and one retailer. In recent research the impact of stochastic order lead time on the bullwhip effect is investigated, but th…
Causal Ordering Without Effect Estimation: A Framework for Using Proxies in Treatment Prioritizationstat.ML
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
Study higher-order spin glass models for social network behavior with peer-group effects.
problem Modeling correlation phenomena on social networks with peer-group effects.
method Inference in higher-order Ising models to recover coefficients and peer-group effects.
result Strong concavity of log pseudo-likelihood implies statistical error rate of sqrt(d/n) for MPLE.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
Study adds memory effect to Solow-Swan model for more accurate economic growth modeling.
problem Inaccuracies in classical Solow-Swan model in capturing long-term dynamics.
method Introduced fractional calculus with Caputo derivative into Solow-Swan framework.
result Fractional-order model shows significant impact on capital accumulation and stability.
New model captures long-term memory effects in epidemic dynamics.
problem Identifying memory effects in disease progression and recovery.
method Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) with fractional SEIRD model.
result Fractional memory order improves predictive performance over classical models.
Modeling high-frequency order book data with Hawkes-Markovian process.
problem Capturing the dynamics of high-frequency order book events.
method Hawkes process with Markovian baseline intensities, LASSO regularization, and Akaike Information Criteria.
result Effective modeling of order book dynamics with reduced parameter redundancy.
Synthesis parameter effect detection using quantitative representations and high dimensional distribution distancescond-mat.mtrl-sci
Method detects effects of synthesis parameters on plutonium oxide microstructure.
problem Detecting effects of synthesis parameters on material microstructure.
method Copula theory, high dimensional distribution distances, and permutational statistics.
result Effects of strike order and oxalic acid feed on plutonium oxide microstructure detected.
Dropout regularizes against high-order interactions by canceling interaction rates.
problem Overfitting to high-order interactions in neural networks.
method Analyzes Dropout through the lens of interaction effects, showing how it effectively cancels out the probability of surviving interactions of different orders.
result Dropout regularizes against high-order interactions by effectively canceling out the probability of surviving interactions of different orders.
Diversifying an Indexq-fin.PM
A new index rebalancing strategy reduces large constituent weights without undesirable effects.
problem Undesirable effects of current Nasdaq-100 index rebalancing.
method A simple rebalancing strategy that avoids undesirable effects.
result Preserves the order of index weights and prevents maximum weight increase.
BayPOD-AL learns reduced-order models from high-fidelity data efficiently.
problem Capturing dynamics of complex systems with large training datasets.
method Bayesian active learning based on uncertainty-aware POD.
result BayPOD-AL reduces computational cost and improves model accuracy.
Enhanced spectral clustering for geometric graphs improves clustering accuracy.
problem Ineffective standard spectral clustering for geometric graphs.
method Higher-order spectral clustering using higher-order eigenvectors.
result Established weak and strong consistency for Soft Geometric Block Model.
Negative step sizes improve second-order methods for neural networks.
problem Second-order methods discard negative curvature, limiting their effectiveness.
method Introduce negative step sizes in second-order methods combined with Wolfe line search.
result Negative step sizes lead to global convergence and improved performance.
Comparing effects of price limit and circuit breaker in stock exchanges by an agent-based modelq-fin.CP
Study compares price limit and circuit breaker effects in stock markets.
problem Preventing rapid and steep price drops in stock exchanges.
method Agent-based model for financial market simulation.
result Price limit and circuit breaker have similar effects under same conditions, but price limit less effective with shorter limit time range.
Proposes a novel method to identify complex effects in multi-view datasets.
problem Challenges in analyzing multi-view biomedical datasets with complex interactions.
method Generalized kernel machine approach considering marginal and joint effects of features from different views.
result Effective identification of higher-order composite effects in multi-view datasets.
Additive Poisson Process: Learning Intensity of Higher-Order Interaction in Stochastic Processesstat.ML
New model estimates higher-order interactions in stochastic processes using lower-dimensional projections.
problem Estimating higher-order interaction effects in stochastic processes with limited data.
method Additive Poisson Process (APP) combines information geometry and generalized additive models to model intensity functions in lower dimensions.
result The model can estimate higher-order intensity functions with sparse data.
New method finds significant high-order interactions efficiently.
problem Finding statistically significant high-order interactions in high-dimensional data.
method Extends selective inference to high-order interaction models with pruning strategy.
result Demonstrated efficient and powerful method for high-order interactions.
Every design choice will have different effects on different units. However traditional A/B tests are often underpowered to identify these heterogeneous effects. This is especially true when the set of unit-level attributes is high-dimensional and our priors are weak about which particular covariates are important. How…
We observe the effects of the three different events that cause spread changes in the order book, namely trades, deletions and placement of limit orders. By looking at the frequencies of the relative amounts of price changing events, we discover that deletions of orders open the bid-ask spread of a stock more often tha…
Price fluctuations from the order book perspective - empirical facts and a simple modelcond-mat.stat-mech
Statistical properties of an order book and the effect they have on price dynamics were studied using the high-frequency NASDAQ Level II data. It was observed that the size distribution of marketable orders (transaction sizes) has power law tails with an exponent 1+mu_{market}=2.4 \pm 0.1. The distribution of limit ord…
In a flat space, the global topology of comoving space can induce a weak acceleration effect similar to dark energy. Does a similar effect occur in the case of the Poincare dodecahedral space S^3/I^*? Does the effect distinguish the Poincare space from other well-proportioned spaces? The residual acceleration effect in…
AdamQLR optimizes Adam with K-FAC heuristics, achieving comparable performance to tuned benchmarks.
problem Improving the performance of Adam optimizers with stabilizing heuristics.
method Combining Adam's update directions with K-FAC's heuristics (damping and learning rate selection).
result Untuned AdamQLR can achieve comparable performance to tuned benchmarks.
Effective action for Kerr-Newman black hole found in twistor theory.
problem Effective action for Kerr-Newman black hole.
method Twistor particle theory to achieve all-orders worldline effective action.
result Exact hidden symmetries identified in self-dual backgrounds.
Post-Einsteinian Effects in the General Theory of Relativity from Higher-Order Riemannian Geometrymath.DG
Higher-order geometry modifies Newtonian dynamics and predicts anomalies in spacecraft motion.
problem Observing and understanding higher-order effects in general relativity.
method Generalizing the Einstein-Hilbert action to include higher-order infinitesimals and studying field equations and cosmologies.
result Higher-order corrections predict anomalies like the Pioneer and flyby effects.
Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.
problem Estimating effects of many related treatments in observational data.
method Customized ridge regression to reduce noise and MSE.
result Significantly reduces MSE for individual sub-treatments while allowing reconstruction of aggregated treatment effects.
Given a closed, oriented, connected 3-manifold, M, we define higher-order linking forms on the higher-order Alexander modules of M. These higher-order linking forms generalize similar linking forms for knots previously studied by the author, which were themselves generalizations of the classical Blanchfield linking for…
New method identifies latent treatment effects from proxy models.
problem Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects under unobserved confounding.
method Compressed observable operator and spectral analysis of treatment effects.
result Eigenvalues of the operator represent latent treatment effects.
We revisit the index leverage effect, that can be decomposed into a volatility effect and a correlation effect. We investigate the latter using a matrix regression analysis, that we call `Principal Regression Analysis' (PRA) and for which we provide some analytical (using Random Matrix Theory) and numerical benchmarks.…
A new high-frequency market making strategy using Deep Hawkes process.
problem Optimizing high-frequency trading in volatile markets.
method Developed a Deep Hawkes process to model order arrivals and their effects on the limit order book.
result The new strategy outperforms traditional methods in market making.
Fine-grained action segmentation in long untrimmed videos is an important task for many applications such as surveillance, robotics, and human-computer interaction. To understand subtle and precise actions within a long time period, second-order information (e.g. feature covariance) or higher is reported to be effectiv…
Market makers face a trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns, requiring contrarian strategies.
problem Navigating the trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns in market making.
method Analysis of live trading data from Binance Bitcoin perpetual.
result A negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns, necessitating contrarian strategies.
Enhances stock movement prediction using Higher Order Transformers for multimodal time-series data.
problem Predicting stock movements in financial markets with complex dynamics.
method Introduced Higher Order Transformers, extending self-attention and transformer architecture to capture complex market dynamics. Employed low-rank tensor decomposition and kernel attention to manage computational complexity. Integrated technical and fundamental analysis from historical prices and tweets.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of the method on the Stocknet dataset, improving stock movement prediction.
Paper proposes a novel policy distillation method for better order execution in noisy markets.
problem Effective order execution in noisy and imperfect market conditions.
method Policy distillation method to guide reinforcement learning towards optimal trading strategies.
result Significant improvements over various baselines in order execution.
Study uses contrastive learning to analyze market order behavior.
problem Understanding diverse market order behaviors.
method Self-supervised learning with triplet loss for order representation.
result Identified distinct behavior types using K-means clustering.
GUIDE detects anomalies in attributed networks by reconstructing node attributes and higher-order structures.
problem Lack of effective mechanisms for detecting anomalies in complex network interactions.
method GUIDE uses attribute and structure autoencoders, graph attention, and reconstruction errors to identify anomalies.
result GUIDE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple real-world datasets.
Understanding the statistical properties of recurrence intervals of extreme events is crucial to risk assessment and management of complex systems. The probability distributions and correlations of recurrence intervals for many systems have been extensively investigated. However, the impacts of microscopic rules of a c…
Most of the existing approaches focus on specific visual tasks while ignoring the relations between them. Estimating task relation sheds light on the learning of high-order semantic concepts, e.g., transfer learning. How to reveal the underlying relations between different visual tasks remains largely unexplored. In th…
This paper describes a general framework for learning Higher-Order Network Embeddings (HONE) from graph data based on network motifs. The HONE framework is highly expressive and flexible with many interchangeable components. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of learning higher-order network represe…