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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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4590134179 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for oracle uncertainty

New oracle uses uncertainty for active classification with noisy feedback.

problem Improving query complexity in interactive binary classifier learning.
method Proposes a new pairwise comparison oracle that considers uncertainty and an adaptive labeling algorithm.
result Demonstrates improved performance and efficiency compared to existing methods.

Pairwise "same-cluster" queries are one of the most widely used forms of supervision in semi-supervised clustering. However, it is impractical to ask human oracles to answer every query correctly. In this paper, we study the influence of allowing "not-sure" answers from a weak oracle and propose an effective algorithm …

2017-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper addresses online alignment of large language models under uncertain preference feedback.

problem Online alignment of large language models with misspecified preference feedback.
method Formulates an oracle-robust objective as a worst-case optimization problem for log-linear policies, and develops projected stochastic composite updates.
result Shows that the robust objective admits an exact closed-form decomposition and achieves O~(ε2)\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}) oracle complexity.

Study examines how uncertainty visualization affects analyst trust in automated classification systems.

problem The impact of uncertainty on analyst trust in automated classification systems.
method Empirical study evaluating different active learning query policies and visualizations.
result Query policy significantly influences analyst trust in automated classification systems.

Semi-supervised active clustering (SSAC) utilizes the knowledge of a domain expert to cluster data points by interactively making pairwise "same-cluster" queries. However, it is impractical to ask human oracles to answer every pairwise query. In this paper, we study the influence of allowing "not-sure" answers from a w…

2017-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

A desirable property of interpretable models is small size, so that they are easily understandable by humans. This leads to the following challenges: (a) small sizes typically imply diminished accuracy, and (b) bespoke levers provided by model families to restrict size, e.g., L1 regularization, might be insufficient to…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

CJE calibrates cheap LLM judges against an oracle, achieving high accuracy at a fraction of the cost.

problem Inexpensive LLM judges can produce biased rankings, leading to unreliable outcomes.
method CJE uses a small oracle to calibrate cheap scores, then evaluates at scale with valid uncertainty.
result CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at 14x lower cost compared to a 16x oracle/judge cost ratio.

ACFS optimizes spectral risk under decision-dependent uncertainty using adaptive forest sampling.

problem Minimizing spectral risk with decision-dependent uncertainty.
method ACFS integrates Generalised Random Forests, CEM-guided exploration, rank-weighted augmentation, and multi-start refinement.
result ACFS achieves lowest median oracle spectral risk on both benchmarks.

Bayesian-guided method selects optimal design from large candidate pool.

problem Optimizing complex structures with high-fidelity evaluations.
method Bayesian active learning with surrogate modeling.
result Optimal design identified with minimal oracle evaluations.

PCS-UQ framework improves uncertainty quantification for machine learning models.

problem Ensuring trustworthy uncertainty quantification for machine learning models in high-stakes domains.
method PCS-UQ framework based on Predictability, Computability, and Stability principles, integrating prediction-checking, bootstrap samples, and multiplicative calibration.
result PCS-UQ maintains target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods in interval width and subgroup coverage.

Sufficient supervised information is crucial for any machine learning models to boost performance. However, labeling data is expensive and sometimes difficult to obtain. Active learning is an approach to acquire annotations for data from a human oracle by selecting informative samples with a high probability to enhance…

2019-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

A Bayesian approach to multilabel classification using tree-based models.

problem Challenges in multilabel classification due to complex label relationships and correlations.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) framework for modeling multilabel classification.
result Improved predictive performance compared to other models, including an oracle model.

QActor optimizes learning from noisy labeled data streams by querying experts for clean labels.

problem Learning from noisy labeled data in continuous streams with limited oracle queries.
method Combines quality models for filtering and oracle queries for true labels, dynamically adjusting query limits.
result QActor nearly matches optimal accuracy with up to 6% additional ground truth data from experts.

We develop a robust RL algorithm for off-dynamics environments with improved suboptimality bounds and computational efficiency.

problem Learning policies robust to uncertainties in transition dynamics between training and deployment environments.
method Distributionally robust Markov decision processes (DRMDPs) with a novel algorithm We-DRIVE-U.
result Improved suboptimality bound of O~(dHmin{1/ρ,H}/K)\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\big({d H \cdot \min \{1/ρ, H\}/\sqrt{K} }\big), near-optimal up to O(H)\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{H}).

Neural-σ2σ^2-LinearUCB improves regret in neural contextual bandits.

problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in neural contextual bandits.
method Proposes a variance-aware neural UCB algorithm using neural representations and an upper bound of reward noise variance.
result Oracle and practical versions of Neural-σ2σ^2-LinearUCB achieve better regret guarantees and performance.

Improved stock selection through predictive fundamentals and uncertainty estimates.

problem Selecting stocks based on future financial data to outperform traditional factor models.
method Train deep nets to forecast future fundamentals, incorporate uncertainty estimates, and adjust portfolios to manage risk.
result Simulated annualized return of 17.7% and Sharpe ratio of 0.84 for uncertainty-aware model, significantly higher than 14.0% and 0.52 for standard factor models.

New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.

problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.

Novel method to quantify aleatoric uncertainty of treatment effects from observational data.

problem Understanding randomness in treatment effects for medical treatments.
method Partial identification and Neyman-orthogonality to quantify aleatoric uncertainty.
result Developed a novel orthogonal learner (AU-learner) for quantifying aleatoric uncertainty.

Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.

problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.

Adaptive Bayesian learning aggregates experts to improve performance.

problem Bayesian online learning's performance depends on inferential choices.
method Treat Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregate them based on sequential predictive losses.
result The aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at a low aggregation cost.

This thesis enhances ML reliability by selectively abstaining from predictions when uncertain.

problem Improving reliability in machine learning systems, especially in high-stakes domains.
method Exploiting uncertainty signals from training trajectories to develop lightweight, post-hoc abstention methods compatible with differential privacy.
result A robust trajectory-based approach to selective prediction that maintains high accuracy under privacy noise.

The paper introduces algorithms for uncertainty quantification in metric spaces.

problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models defined on metric spaces.
method Proposes conformal and kNN prediction algorithms for metric spaces.
result Both algorithms provide finite-sample guarantees and improve local coverage calibration.

New model-free RL algorithm tackles robust average-reward problems with finite sample complexity analysis.

problem Long-term decision-making in environments with varying dynamics.
method Proposes Robust Halpern Iteration (RHI) algorithm based on a black-box sampling oracle and multi-level Monte-Carlo estimator.
result Achieves ε-optimal robust policy with sample complexity of O(1/ε^(2+o(1))) under generative model setting.

Oracle-efficient algorithms reduce combinatorial semi-bandit regret to logarithmic time.

problem Scalability issue in combinatorial semi-bandit problems due to high combinatorial optimization costs.
method Oracle-efficient frameworks that minimize oracle queries while maintaining tight regret guarantees.
result Achieved ildeO(T) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) regret with O(loglogT)O(\log\log T) oracle queries for worst-case linear rewards.

New analysis shows Thompson Sampling can work with greedy approximations in combinatorial bandits.

problem Thompson Sampling's theoretical limits with greedy approximations in combinatorial semi-bandits.
method Study with greedy oracle, providing lower and upper bounds on regret.
result First theoretical results showing TS can work with greedy approximations, breaking misconceptions.

Graph convolution networks (GCN) have emerged as the leading method to classify node classes in networks, and have reached the highest accuracy in multiple node classification tasks. In the absence of available tagged samples, active learning methods have been developed to obtain the highest accuracy using the minimal …

2019-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops asymptotic theory for deep Cox models to enable valid inference.

problem Theoretical gaps in deep neural network estimators for Cox models.
method Asymptotic distribution theory linking in-sample optimization error to population risk.
result Pointwise and multivariate asymptotic normality for subsampled ensemble estimators.

MAMBA learns policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.

problem Learning policies from multiple conflicting oracles in reinforcement learning.
method MAMBA uses a gradient estimator in the style of GAE to optimize policies, leveraging demonstrations from multiple weak oracles.
result MAMBA outperforms the state-of-the-art in learning policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.

We study the problem of interactively learning a binary classifier using noisy labeling and pairwise comparison oracles, where the comparison oracle answers which one in the given two instances is more likely to be positive. Learning from such oracles has multiple applications where obtaining direct labels is harder bu…

2017-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the problem of training machine learning models incrementally with batches of samples annotated with noisy oracles. We select each batch of samples that are important and also diverse via clustering and importance sampling. More importantly, we incorporate model uncertainty into the sampling probability to com…

2019-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantum oracles help identify counterfactuals better than classical ones.

problem Identifying unknown causal parameters in causal models.
method Using quantum oracles to query and identify all causal parameters and counterfactuals.
result Quantum oracles enable identification of all two-way joint counterfactuals and tighter bounds on higher-order counterfactuals.

New oracles improve stochastic optimization with noisy or biased measurements.

problem Optimizing functions with noisy or biased measurements.
method Introduced biased gradient oracles for stochastic optimization, analyzed RSG and SGD algorithms with these oracles.
result Derived non-asymptotic bounds for convergence rates of algorithms with biased gradient oracles.

Algorithm solves online binary classification and infinite games using ERM oracle.

problem Online learning and solving infinite games with computationally inefficient oracles.
method Proposes an algorithm relying solely on ERM oracle calls for online binary classification and nonparametric games.
result Achieves finite and sublinearly growing regret in various settings.

Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.

problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.

Differentially private conformal prediction improves statistical efficiency.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in private data analysis.
method Introducing differential conformal prediction and developing Differentially Private Conformal Prediction (DPCP).
result DPCP produces tighter prediction sets than existing private split conformal approaches.