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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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54108161215 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for oracle risk

Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.

problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.

New oracles improve stochastic optimization with noisy or biased measurements.

problem Optimizing functions with noisy or biased measurements.
method Introduced biased gradient oracles for stochastic optimization, analyzed RSG and SGD algorithms with these oracles.
result Derived non-asymptotic bounds for convergence rates of algorithms with biased gradient oracles.

Quantum method speeds up risk estimation for insurance tail risks.

problem Sample-sparsity in classical Monte Carlo methods for tail risk pricing.
method Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) with Grover amplification.
result Quantum method achieves convergence approaching order reciprocal N, enabling high-resolution tail estimation within practical budgets.

Improved algorithm finds second-order stationary points in non-convex optimization.

problem Minimizing non-convex objectives while preserving training data privacy.
method SpiderBoost framework with two gradient oracles: precise and less precise.
result Improved rates for finding second-order stationary points.

We investigate properties of estimators obtained by minimization of U-processes with the Lasso penalty in high-dimensional settings. Our attention is focused on the ranking problem that is popular in machine learning. It is related to guessing the ordering between objects on the basis of their observed predictors. We p…

2015-12-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Propose an XMSE-aware mixed estimator for EB that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.

problem Kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter.
method An XMSE-aware mixed estimator that interpolates between ML and EB shrinkage.
result Fixed-weight XMSE is a scalar quadratic, yielding a closed-form oracle mixing weight that is no worse than both ML and the base EB estimator at the XMSE scale.

Study on gradient complexity of private optimization with private oracles.

problem Analyzing the efficiency of differentially private optimization algorithms.
method Lower bounds on the number of first-order oracle queries for private optimization.
result Lower bounds on the number of queries for private optimization algorithms, showing a dimension-dependent runtime penalty.

The paper analyzes prediction error in nonstationary settings using weighted risk minimization.

problem Prediction under distribution drift and nonstationary conditions.
method General decomposition of excess risk into learning and drift terms, proving oracle inequalities under mixing conditions.
result Oracle inequalities for the learning error, providing bounds that hold uniformly over arbitrary weight classes.

Accelerates ERM problems with LPI-GD and improved oracle complexity.

problem Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) problems with strong convexity and smoothness.
method Local Polynomial Interpolation-based Gradient Descent (LPI-GD) and accelerated methods.
result Oracle complexity improved to $ ilde{O}\left(\sqrtσ m^d \log(1/\varepsilon) ight)$.

Two important goals of high-dimensional modeling are prediction and variable selection. In this article, we consider regularization with combined L1L_1 and concave penalties, and study the sampling properties of the global optimum of the suggested method in ultra-high dimensional settings. The L1L_1-penalty provides th…

2016-05-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of binary classification where one can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. We present a simple proof for the oracle inequality for the excess risk of structural risk minimizers using a lasso type penalty.

2007-05-16abs ↗pdf ↗

We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the kk factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The strategy depends on the selection of a portfolio via Bayesian multiple testing methodol…

2017-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper analyzes sparse aggregation in GLMs with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.

problem Sparse aggregation in GLMs for parameter approximation.
method Exponential weighted aggregation scheme with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.
result Sharp oracle inequality for Kullback-Leibler risk with leading constant 1 and minimax-optimal rate of aggregation.

New algorithm improves gradient-based ERM for smooth convex losses.

problem Empirical risk minimization of smooth, strongly convex loss functions.
method Iterative gradient-based method with local polynomial regression.
result Oracle complexity of O((pε1)d/(2η))O((p ε^{-1})^{d/(2η)}) for our algorithm.

Sparse-penalized deep neural networks improve performance in weakly dependent processes.

problem Nonparametric regression and classification under weak dependence.
method Sparse-penalized deep neural networks with oracle inequalities and convergence rates established.
result The proposed estimators outperform non-penalized ones in simulations.

Aggregated hold-out (Agghoo) is a method which averages learning rules selected by hold-out (that is, cross-validation with a single split). We provide the first theoretical guarantees on Agghoo, ensuring that it can be used safely: Agghoo performs at worst like the hold-out when the risk is convex. The same holds true…

2019-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Missing responses is a missing data format in which outcomes are not always observed. In this work we develop kernel machines that can handle missing responses. First, we propose a kernel machine family that uses mainly the complete cases. For the quadratic loss, we then propose a family of doubly-robust kernel machine…

2018-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization in normal mean estimation and linear regression.

problem Estimation of normal mean in multivariate settings with correlated observations.
method Approximate risk minimization over a functional class of shrinkage-thresholding rules.
result Unified estimator NOMAD for shrinkage, thresholding, and regularization.

ACFS optimizes spectral risk under decision-dependent uncertainty using adaptive forest sampling.

problem Minimizing spectral risk with decision-dependent uncertainty.
method ACFS integrates Generalised Random Forests, CEM-guided exploration, rank-weighted augmentation, and multi-start refinement.
result ACFS achieves lowest median oracle spectral risk on both benchmarks.

Study on tradeoffs between mistakes and ERM oracle calls in online and transductive learning.

problem Analyzing online and transductive learning with limited ERM and weak consistency oracle access.
method Proves lower bounds and upper bounds on mistakes and oracle calls, considering realizable and agnostic cases.
result Achieves optimal mistake bounds with weak consistency queries for certain concept classes.

The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified up to unknown constants. In practice, however, this oracle tuning parameter is …

2013-08-04abs ↗pdf ↗

New stability bounds for GD in overparameterised shallow nets without NTK assumptions.

problem Generalisation and excess risk bounds for shallow neural networks.
method Oracle inequalities and stability analysis of GD without kernelisation.
result Oracle type bounds reveal GD's generalisation is controlled by an interpolating network with shortest GD path.

The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.

problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.

Paper introduces SGD for nonparametric additive models with optimal risk.

problem Training nonparametric additive models efficiently and accurately.
method Iterative algorithm based on stochastic gradient descent for truncated basis expansions.
result Estimator achieves minimax optimal risk in well-specified settings.

The paper tackles fair set-valued classification under demographic parity constraints.

problem Set-valued classification can amplify discriminatory bias, especially in multiclass settings.
method Proposes two strategies: an oracle-based method and a proxy method, both aiming to satisfy demographic parity and expected size constraints.
result Established distribution-free convergence rates and excess-risk bounds for both methods.

UAMM uses external market prices to improve AMM efficiency and reduce liquidity provider risk.

problem Traditional AMMs lack consideration of external markets and risk management.
method UAMM calculates prices by incorporating external market prices and impermanent loss, maintaining constant product curve properties.
result UAMM eliminates arbitrage opportunities when external market prices are efficient, reducing liquidity provider risk.

This paper explores how decentralized finance mitigates traditional finance's shortcomings.

problem Lack of transparency and moral hazard in centralized finance.
method Analysis of smart contracts and decentralized governance in DeFi.
result DeFi mitigates traditional finance's shortcomings through decentralized governance and smart contracts.

We analyze general model selection procedures using penalized empirical loss minimization under computational constraints. While classical model selection approaches do not consider computational aspects of performing model selection, we argue that any practical model selection procedure must not only trade off estimat…

2012-08-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops asymptotic theory for deep Cox models to enable valid inference.

problem Theoretical gaps in deep neural network estimators for Cox models.
method Asymptotic distribution theory linking in-sample optimization error to population risk.
result Pointwise and multivariate asymptotic normality for subsampled ensemble estimators.

AGCA approximates angular variation on the unit sphere, reducing extremal dependence problems to eigenanalysis.

problem Approximating angular variation in multivariate extremes.
method Anchored geodesic component analysis (AGCA) approximates angular variation by great subspheres constrained to pass through a chosen reference direction.
result AGCA finds concentrated tail directions in daily equity-portfolio losses, explaining about 91% of anchored variation.