Bayesian online learning algorithm for one-pass data, achieving frequentist validity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Theoretical limitations in Bayesian online learning, especially in the one-pass setting.
method Proposed a new Bayesian online learning algorithm with a warm-start phase for the one-pass regime, establishing convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification.
result The sequentially updated posterior attains optimal convergence rates and valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes.
New algorithm provides robust uncertainty quantification without parameter tuning.
problem Real-world machine learning predictors need reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Parameter-free, group-conditional online prediction algorithm.
result Achieves best group-conditional coverage guarantees.
Proposes online conformal prediction method with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
problem Online uncertainty quantification with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
method Formulates online conformal prediction as an adversarial bandit problem and uses regret minimization.
result Achieves long-run coverage guarantee with adversarial semi-bandit feedback.
ECI improves time series prediction uncertainty quantification by smoothing miscoverage error.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for time series prediction due to temporal dependence and distribution shift.
method Error-quantified Conformal Inference (ECI) by smoothing quantile loss function and introducing adaptive feedback scale.
result ECI achieves valid miscoverage control and tighter prediction sets than existing methods.
COAD maximizes online auction revenue by quantifying uncertainty without known distributions.
problem Designing incentive-compatible mechanisms for online auctions with unknown bidder values and uncertain future participants.
method COAD uses distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques and integrates machine learning methods to predict bidder values while ensuring revenue guarantees.
result COAD maximizes revenue in online auctions through bidder-specific reserve prices based on lower confidence bounds of valuations.
New algorithms improve time series prediction with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for time series prediction.
method Combines conformal prediction and control theory for online, adaptive forecasting.
result Improves coverage over ensemble forecasters in real-world applications.
Bayesian method improves multivariate periodontal outcome modeling.
problem Modeling periodontal outcomes is challenging and requires consideration of demographic differences.
method Jointly models multivariate outcomes using an online Bayesian transfer learning framework.
result Significant improvement over univariate RECaST method demonstrated.
Develops a framework to control risk in online learning models.
problem Rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models.
method A framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk.
result Guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even with distribution shifts.
A scalable GP model for online uncertainty quantification over graphs.
problem Scalable uncertainty quantification over graphs with dynamic data.
method Graph-aware parametric Gaussian process model using random features and online conformal prediction.
result Improved coverage and efficient prediction sets over existing methods.
A new online bootstrap method for time series data.
problem Applying traditional bootstrap methods to time series data with dependencies.
method An autoregressive sequence of resampling weights to account for data dependencies.
result The method provides reliable uncertainty quantification in real-time applications.
Cheap methods improve uncertainty in SGD solutions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SGD solutions.
method Two resampling-based methods: parallel resampling with replacement and online resampling.
result Significantly reduced computation effort in constructing confidence intervals.
Proposes methods for online conformal prediction with nested prediction sets across multiple confidence levels.
problem Need for uncertainty quantification with multiple confidence levels in diverse applications.
method Online optimization perspective to enforce nestedness of prediction sets while controlling quantile estimation error.
result Achieves stable coverage across all levels, strictly nested prediction sets, and improved efficiency.
The estimation of class prevalence, i.e., the fraction of a population that belongs to a certain class, is a very useful tool in data analytics and learning, and finds applications in many domains such as sentiment analysis, epidemiology, etc. For example, in sentiment analysis, the objective is often not to estimate w…
In point-based sensing systems such as coordinate measuring machines (CMM) and laser ultrasonics where complete sensing is impractical due to the high sensing time and cost, adaptive sensing through a systematic exploration is vital for online inspection and anomaly quantification. Most of the existing sequential sampl…
Paper proposes an efficient online Newton method with Nesterov's acceleration for streaming data.
problem Efficient inference of online Newton methods with robustness to noise and ill-conditioning.
method Online Newton method with Hessian averaging and Nesterov's accelerated sketch-and-project solver.
result Global almost-sure convergence and asymptotic normality of the last iterate with non-asymptotic convergence guarantees.
This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.
problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.
A new method quantifies input model uncertainty in streaming data.
problem Quantifying input model uncertainty in streaming data.
method Two-layer importance sampling framework for online uncertainty quantification.
result Consistency and asymptotic convergence rate of the proposed algorithms.
COMA combines prediction sets from multiple models for online, adaptive prediction.
problem Combining multiple prediction models with uncertainty guarantees.
method Online model aggregation using weighted voting of conformal prediction sets.
result COMA retains coverage guarantees under negative correlation assumptions.
New approach uses autoregressive models to explore and quantify uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Quantifying and exploring uncertainty in online decision-making.
method Reformulates uncertainty as missing future outcomes, training autoregressive models for next-outcome prediction.
result Establishes a reduction from online learning to offline next-outcome prediction, controlling Bayesian regret by sequence prediction loss.
Efficient method for high confidence level inference using parallel stochastic optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification for online estimation.
method Small number of independent multi-runs to construct t-based confidence intervals.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantee for exact coverage of confidence intervals.
New online conformal prediction methods minimize strongly adaptive regret and achieve near-optimal coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in online settings with changing data distributions.
method Developed new online conformal prediction methods that minimize strongly adaptive regret.
result Achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret and approximately valid coverage.
New CLT for SGD in high-dimensional regression provides online inference.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in SGD for high-dimensional regression.
method Established a high-dimensional CLT for online SGD iterates.
result Developed an online approach for estimating variance in CLT.
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
BayOTIDE tackles imputation of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with uncertainty quantification.
problem Imputation of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values and noises.
method BayOTIDE treats multivariate time series as a combination of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns, using Gaussian Processes (GPs) as functional priors and converting them into state-space priors for scalable online inference.
result BayOTIDE can handle imputation over arbitrary time stamps and offers uncertainty quantification and interpretability.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertaint…
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
The paper proposes calibration to improve algorithm performance using machine learning predictions.
problem Improving real-world performance of online algorithms with machine learning predictions.
method Calibration as a tool to bridge the gap between prediction uncertainty and algorithm design.
result Calibrated advice leads to more effective guidance in high-variance settings and significant performance improvements in real-world data.
Online GP-CP improves long-term coverage of predictions.
problem Model mis-specification in online Gaussian processes.
method Combining Gaussian processes with conformal prediction for guaranteed coverage.
result Adaptive thresholding ensures long-term coverage.
SkyGP improves Gaussian process scalability for real-time learning.
problem Scalability issues with exact Gaussian processes for streaming data.
method Streaming kernel-induced progressively generated Gaussian process experts (SkyGP).
result SkyGP maintains performance guarantees while improving scalability.
Paper quantifies uncertainties in EIS spectra of SOFCs, proposing VB method for online monitoring.
problem Distortions in EIS spectra due to disturbances, drifts, and sensor noise.
method Proposes variational Bayes (VB) method for quantifying spectral uncertainty in EIS of SOFCs.
result VB method provides approximate distributions of ECM parameters with low computational load.
Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method augmented by an effective information fusion mechanism to learn from historical data …
Online method selects candidates from data streams, ensuring irreversible decisions.
problem Conformal selection's incompatibility with irreversible decisions in online scenarios.
method Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (OCS-ARC) incorporating online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure.
result OCS-ARC controls FDR at or below nominal level, improving selection power.
Develops methods to estimate and quantify uncertainty in off-policy evaluation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in off-policy evaluation for new policy deployment.
method Designs a pseudo policy to generate subsamples and applies conformal prediction.
result Valid interval estimators for target policy's return with uncertainty quantification.
UVU simplifies value uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Estimating epistemic uncertainty in value functions for reinforcement learning.
method UVU uses squared prediction errors between an online learner and a fixed, randomly initialized target network, incorporating policy-conditional value uncertainty.
result UVU achieves equal performance to large ensembles on challenging offline RL settings, with computational savings.
A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.
problem Challenges in quantifying predictive uncertainty for non-exchangeable panel data.
method Online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data, using similarity weights and adaptive miscoverage levels.
result Improves coverage on worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation.
New bounds for SGD in high dimensions improve inference efficiency.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional SGD.
method Established non-asymptotic Berry--Esseen bounds for online least-squares SGD.
result Gaussian Central Limit Theorem holds for t≳d1+δ, extending dimensional scaling. Adaptive Conformal Inference improves time series forecasting uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in time series models with dependency.
method AgACI, an adaptive method based on online expert aggregation.
result AgACI provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead electricity price forecasting.
The paper provides CI for test unfairness of group-fairness-aware classifiers trained with online SGD.
problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models trained with stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed an online multiplier bootstrap method to estimate CI for test unfairness of DI and DM-aware linear classifiers.
result Asymptotic Central Limit Theorem holds for CI estimation of DI and DM-aware models.
Workflow uses deep learning to improve geosteering accuracy in Goliat Field.
problem Uncertainty in geological models and forward simulations affects real-time estimations.
method Offline DNN training, online FlexIES with probabilistic estimation.
result Median probabilistic estimation matches proprietary inversion.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is an immensely popular approach for online learning in settings where data arrives in a stream or data sizes are very large. However, despite an ever-increasing volume of work on SGD, much less is known about the statistical inferential properties of SGD-based predictions. Taking a fu…
LF-IBIS learns optimal policies online without explicit likelihood.
problem Bayesian RL challenges due to intractable likelihood functions.
method Combines ABC with IBIS for online belief updates.
result Approximates posterior distributions for policies and parameters.
New Gaussian processes for Riemannian manifolds enable uncertainty quantification.
problem Modeling functions on Riemannian manifolds with uncertainty.
method Generalized Matérn Gaussian processes on compact manifolds via spectral theory.
result Efficient training of Riemannian Matérn Gaussian processes using scalable techniques.
This paper introduces a new learning rule for probabilistic SNNs that improves log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
problem Training and inference of deterministic SNNs are constrained by their inability to generate multiple independent outputs.
method Introduces a generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) learning rule for probabilistic SNNs.
result The GEM-SNN learning rule leads to significant improvements in log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
The paper addresses uncertainty in demand prediction for dynamic pricing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in the demand function for dynamic pricing.
method Developed a debiased approach to construct accurate confidence intervals for the demand function.
result Asymptotic normality guarantee of the debiased estimator for the demand function.
A framework for navigating environments with spatially correlated obstacles and uncertain blockage status.
problem Navigation in environments with spatially correlated obstacles of uncertain blockage status.
method Modeling spatial correlation with Gaussian Random Field, developing Bayesian belief updates, proposing a two-stage learning framework with offline and online phases.
result Consistent performance gains over baselines in environments with adversarial interruptions or clustered natural hazards.
Neural architecture improves geophysical data assimilation with uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving geophysical data interpolation with uncertainty quantification.
method Neural variational data assimilation with SPDE priors.
result Demonstrated improved performance and uncertainty quantification.
HistNetQ improves quantification tasks by optimizing loss functions and eliminating label requirements.
problem Quantification of class prevalence in bags of examples.
method Permutation-invariant Histograms and deep neural networks.
result HistNetQ outperforms other quantification methods and optimizes custom loss functions.