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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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145290435580 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for observational multiplicity

The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.

problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.

New method combines multiple datasets to estimate ATE with valid confidence intervals.

problem Combining multiple observational datasets to estimate ATE with valid confidence intervals.
method Prediction-powered inferences to shrink CIs and provide valid CIs.
result Valid confidence intervals for ATE from multiple datasets.

A technique uncovers latent causal relationships in multiple time series data.

problem Identifying causal relationships in complex, dynamic systems.
method Blindly identifies latent sources by projecting observed data into pairs of components to maximize causality.
result Reveals multiple strong causal relationships not evident in observed data.

New method estimates causal effects of multiple versions of treatment.

problem Ignoring multiple versions of treatment leads to biased causal effect estimates.
method Mixture-of-Experts framework for estimating version-specific causal effects.
result Effective method for estimating causal effects of latent versions.

A new method combines scores of individual observations to efficiently approximate posterior distributions.

problem Handling posterior distributions conditioned on multiple observations with neural methods.
method Conditional score modeling to combine learned scores from individual observations.
result Sample-efficient method that can aggregate multiple observations at inference time.

The paper extends multiple instance learning to multiclass and regression problems.

problem Learning from aggregate observations where supervision is given to sets of instances.
method Probabilistic framework for various aggregate observations, including classification and regression.
result The proposed estimator has nice convergence properties under mild assumptions.

The paper tackles robust policy learning from multiple data sources.

problem Learning a policy that generalizes across diverse settings from multiple heterogeneous data sources.
method Proposes a minimax regret optimization objective and a policy learning algorithm combining doubly robust offline policy evaluation and no-regret learning.
result Achieves minimal worst-case mixture regret up to a moderated vanishing rate of the total data across all sources.

Algorithm detects influential observations in high-dimensional data.

problem Challenges in identifying influential observations in high-dimensional datasets.
method Three-step algorithm based on expectiles and asymmetric correlations.
result Higher detection power than competing methods.

Meta-learners estimate CATE from multiple environments with partial identification.

problem Estimating CATE from observational data across multiple environments with violations of causal assumptions.
method Adapt IV literature for partial identification, propose model-agnostic meta-learners.
result Meta-learners effectively estimate CATE bounds across various experiments.

A new method detects hidden driving forces in systems with multiple observables.

problem Hidden driving forces in systems with multiple observables cannot be detected by scalar statistics.
method Cross-spectral witness for hidden nonequilibrium.
result Two simultaneously observed channels retain an off-diagonal cross-spectral sector inaccessible to scalar reductions.

Study learns dynamics of linear systems from multiple short trajectories.

problem Learning dynamics of autonomous linear systems from multiple short trajectories.
method Finite sample analysis for stable and unstable systems, adjusting trajectory length for marginally stable systems.
result Learning rate of O(1N)\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}) for both stable and unstable systems.

Many learning tasks, such as cross-validation, parameter search, or leave-one-out analysis, involve multiple instances of similar problems, each instance sharing a large part of learning data with the others. We introduce a robust framework for solving multiple square-root LASSO problems, based on a sketch of the learn…

2014-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for analyzing multiple longitudinal data processes.

problem Exploring associations between multiple random processes observed jointly.
method Functional Generalized Canonical Correlation Analysis (FGCCA) based on multiblock Regularized Generalized Canonical Correlation Analysis (RGCCA).
result FGCCA framework is robust to sparsely and irregularly observed data.

This work introduces a method to learn dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements using multiple shooting.

problem Learning dynamical systems from noisy sensor measurements is challenging due to system instability.
method A scalable method based on multiple shooting.
result Robust learning of latent representations of dynamical systems from noisy measurements.

Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose effects are simultaneously of interest. We propose the deconfounder, an algorithm that…

2018-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for simulation-based inference learns a single model for multiple tasks.

problem Simulation-based inference for multiple tasks with limited model retraining.
method Unified flow-matching generative model with query-aware masking distribution.
result Competitive performance on various inference tasks and real-world problems.

Can humans impute missing data with similar proficiency as machines? This is the question we aim to answer in this paper. We present a novel idea of converting observations with missing data in to a survey questionnaire, which is presented to crowdworkers for completion. We replicate a multiple imputation framework by …

2016-12-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates treatment effect using ratio of potential outcomes in MS patients.

problem Estimating treatment-covariate interactions in observational studies.
method Proposes a doubly robust estimator for the ratio of expected potential outcomes.
result Validates the proposed estimator on an independent sample.

Paper introduces SMM for forecasting multiple time series with missing values.

problem Forecasting multiple time series with missing and noisy values.
method Sliding Mask Method (SMM) using Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF).
result The method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in time series forecasting.

Unified analysis of generalization curves in large models using gradient flow.

problem Analyzing generalization error curves in simple learning models.
method Gradient flow in the Gaussian covariate model, using random matrix theory.
result Unified understanding of multiple descent structures in learning curves.

Paper addresses state estimation in sensor networks with intermittent data.

problem State estimation in sensor networks with packet dropouts and corrupted observations.
method Bayesian variational inference with a dual-mask generative model.
result The method effectively identifies system states and noise parameters.

Overfitting occurs when RL agents correlate rewards with spurious observation features.

problem Overfitting in reinforcement learning due to correlation with spurious observation features.
method Developed a framework to analyze and design synthetic benchmarks from modified observation spaces.
result Agents can overfit to different observation spaces even if the MDP dynamics are fixed.

The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.

problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.

This paper improves prediction accuracy for multi-input classification tasks using p-value aggregation.

problem Generating accurate predictive sets with guaranteed coverage for multi-input classification tasks.
method Integrates p-values from each observation to reduce the size of the predicted label set while maintaining class-conditional coverage.
result The method reduces the size of the predicted label set while preserving the required coverage guarantee.

MDCN improves treatment effect estimation in multicenter observational studies.

problem Incongruities in multicenter observational studies due to center-specific protocols and treatment reactions.
method MDCN learns a new feature embedding to address selection bias and strengthen information sharing between similar centers.
result MDCN provides more accurate treatment insights for new, unobserved centers compared to existing methods.

Comment refutes the deconfounder method's premise about ignorability.

problem The deconfounder method's premise about ignorability is incorrect.
method The deconfounder method proposes a variable making multiple causes conditionally independent controls for unmeasured multi-cause confounding.
result No fact about observed data alone can be informative about ignorability.

Motivated by clinical trials, we study bandits with observable non-compliance. At each step, the learner chooses an arm, after, instead of observing only the reward, it also observes the action that took place. We show that such noncompliance can be helpful or hurtful to the learner in general. Unfortunately, naively i…

2016-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Most real life systems have a random component: the multitude of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing them result in stochastic fluctuations of the parameters determining their dynamics. These empirical systems are in many cases subject to noise of multiplicative nature. The special properties of multiplicative…

2008-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a probabilistic model for inferring the multivariate function from multiple areal data sets with various granularities. Here, the areal data are observed not at location points but at regions. Existing regression-based models can only utilize the sufficiently fine-grained auxiliary data sets on the same doma…

2019-07-19abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we al…

2016-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Multiplicative noise, including dropout, is widely used to regularize deep neural networks (DNNs), and is shown to be effective in a wide range of architectures and tasks. From an information perspective, we consider injecting multiplicative noise into a DNN as training the network to solve the task with noisy informat…

2018-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the classification problem of singularities of function-germs with harmonic leading terms of two variables under the right-equivalence. We observe that the multiple actions of Laplacian appear for the classifications of such class of function-germs.

2016-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗