A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper introduces new measures to quantify variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
problem The variability in decision tree models due to observational multiplicity.
method Introduces leaf regret and structural regret to decompose observational multiplicity.
result Structural regret is the primary driver of observational multiplicity, accounting for over 15 times the variability of leaf regret in some datasets.
Many learning tasks, such as cross-validation, parameter search, or leave-one-out analysis, involve multiple instances of similar problems, each instance sharing a large part of learning data with the others. We introduce a robust framework for solving multiple square-root LASSO problems, based on a sketch of the learn…
Causal inference from observational data often assumes "ignorability," that all confounders are observed. This assumption is standard yet untestable. However, many scientific studies involve multiple causes, different variables whose effects are simultaneously of interest. We propose the deconfounder, an algorithm that…
Observable structures of a topological field theory of AKSZ type are analyzed. From a double (or multiple) complex structure of observable algebras, new topological invariants are constructed. Especially, Donaldson polynomial invariants and their generalizations are constructed from a topological field theory of AKSZ t…
This article develops a deep reinforcement learning (Deep-RL) framework for dynamic pricing on managed lanes with multiple access locations and heterogeneity in travelers' value of time, origin, and destination. This framework relaxes assumptions in the literature by considering multiple origins and destinations, multi…
Can humans impute missing data with similar proficiency as machines? This is the question we aim to answer in this paper. We present a novel idea of converting observations with missing data in to a survey questionnaire, which is presented to crowdworkers for completion. We replicate a multiple imputation framework by …
Positive--unlabeled (PU) learning considers two samples, a positive set P with observations from only one class and an unlabeled set U with observations from two classes. The goal is to classify observations in U. Class mixture proportion estimation (MPE) in U is a key step in PU learning. Blanchard et al. [2010] showe…
The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.
We introduce a conditional generative model for learning to disentangle the hidden factors of variation within a set of labeled observations, and separate them into complementary codes. One code summarizes the specified factors of variation associated with the labels. The other summarizes the remaining unspecified vari…
Motivated by clinical trials, we study bandits with observable non-compliance. At each step, the learner chooses an arm, after, instead of observing only the reward, it also observes the action that took place. We show that such noncompliance can be helpful or hurtful to the learner in general. Unfortunately, naively i…
Most real life systems have a random component: the multitude of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing them result in stochastic fluctuations of the parameters determining their dynamics. These empirical systems are in many cases subject to noise of multiplicative nature. The special properties of multiplicative…
We propose a probabilistic model for inferring the multivariate function from multiple areal data sets with various granularities. Here, the areal data are observed not at location points but at regions. Existing regression-based models can only utilize the sufficiently fine-grained auxiliary data sets on the same doma…
In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we al…
Multiplicative noise, including dropout, is widely used to regularize deep neural networks (DNNs), and is shown to be effective in a wide range of architectures and tasks. From an information perspective, we consider injecting multiplicative noise into a DNN as training the network to solve the task with noisy informat…
We study the classification problem of singularities of function-germs with harmonic leading terms of two variables under the right-equivalence. We observe that the multiple actions of Laplacian appear for the classifications of such class of function-germs.