A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper presents regression models obtained from a process of blind prediction of peptide binding affinity from provided descriptors for several distinct datasets as part of the 2006 Comparative Evaluation of Prediction Algorithms (COEPRA) contest. This paper finds that kernel partial least squares, a nonlinear part…
We study the problem of recovering a structured signal x0 from high-dimensional data yi=f(aiTx0) for some nonlinear (and potentially unknown) link function f, when the regressors ai are iid Gaussian. Brillinger (1982) showed that ordinary least-squares estimate…
This book introduces linear models and their theories rigorously.
problem Understanding linear models and their theories.
method Explains linear models from three perspectives, introduces maximum likelihood estimation, and proves least squares is the best unbiased linear model.
result Least squares is the best unbiased linear model in terms of mean squared error.
New method learns low-dimensional models for systems with non-polynomial terms.
problem Modeling systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms that are spatially local and given in analytic form.
method Non-intrusive model reduction method that learns operators for linear and polynomially nonlinear dynamics via a least-squares problem incorporating given non-polynomial terms.
result Comparable accuracy to intrusive methods that require full knowledge of governing equations.
We study parameter estimation and asymptotic inference for sparse nonlinear regression. More specifically, we assume the data are given by y=f(x⊤β∗)+ε, where f is nonlinear. To recover β∗, we propose an ℓ1-regularized least-squares estimator. Unlike classical linear regression, the correspondin…
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty. We propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from (conditioned on) past…
Spectral decomposition of the Koopman operator is attracting attention as a tool for the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems. Dynamic mode decomposition is a popular numerical algorithm for Koopman spectral analysis; however, we often need to prepare nonlinear observables manually according to the underlying dynami…
We study the estimation of β for the nonlinear model $y = f(X\sp{\top}β) + ε$ when f is a nonlinear transformation that is known, β has sparse nonzero coordinates, and the number of observations can be much smaller than that of parameters (n≪p). We show that in order to bound the L2 error of the L0 reg…
We present ADMM-Softmax, an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) for solving multinomial logistic regression (MLR) problems. Our method is geared toward supervised classification tasks with many examples and features. It decouples the nonlinear optimization problem in MLR into three steps that can be solv…
Paper addresses identifiability and asymptotics of ODE systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying parameters and causal structure of linear ODE systems from discrete observations.
method Developed sufficient conditions for identifiability, proved consistency and asymptotic normality of NLS estimator, constructed confidence sets, and inferred causal structure.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal parameter estimator for linear ODE systems under mild conditions.
We propose a probabilistic numerical algorithm to solve Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs) with nonnegative jumps, a class of BSDEs introduced in [9] for representing fully nonlinear HJB equations. In particular, this allows us to numerically solve stochastic control problems with controlled volatility,…
The paper proposes a new system ID method from noisy data.
problem System identification of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data.
method Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics, analyzed in the context of least squares and multiple shooting approaches.
result The proposed approach outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error and model generalizability.