A model for learning customer preferences in a dynamic product launch setting.
problem Learning customer preferences in a setting with new product launches.
method Proposes a sequential multinomial logit (SMNL) model and a learning algorithm with a regret bound.
result Demonstrates the tier structure can mitigate risks associated with learning new products.
CDLF predicts product life-cycles in cold-start phases with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting new products in early phases when data is scarce.
method Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF) combining static descriptors, reference trajectories, and new observations.
result CDLF outperforms classical models in accuracy and probabilistic forecasting.
PHBench predicts Series A funding from Product Hunt launch signals with 7.8% accuracy.
problem Predicting startup Series A funding from launch signals on Product Hunt.
method Constructed PHBench from 67,292 Product Hunt posts, linked to funding records, and used a three-component ensemble model.
result Best-performing model achieved F0.5 = 0.097 and AP = 0.037, with a statistically significant advantage over logistic regression.
A new model predicts fashion demand 6-12 months ahead, boosting retailer profits.
problem Accurate demand forecasting for fashion retailers with short product life cycles.
method Product age-based forecast model, incorporating unique feature engineering.
result Significant revenue uplift of 41% compared to retailer's plan.
We use a control framework to analyze the digital vendor's profit maximization problem. The vendor captures market share by focusing costly effort on post-launch product maintenance, which influences user perception of the product and drives a revenue stream associated with product use. Our theoretical results show nec…
Framework for AI healthcare products from concept to market.
problem Failure of AI products to reach clinics despite promising potential.
method Decision-making framework for AI healthcare product development.
result Guides through a three-phase process to market launch of validated AI products.
Study identifies 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts on Solana pump.fun, showing coordinated buying behavior.
problem Understanding coordinated buying behavior on Solana pump.fun.
method Two-stage detection pipeline: first-buyer-window extraction followed by persistent-cohort surfacing via graph co-occurrence.
result 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts identified, showing systematic co-buying across multiple launches.
Improved anomaly detection for launch vehicle propulsion systems using LSTM and statistical relabeling.
problem Detecting anomalies in real-time telemetry data for launch vehicles.
method Utilized LSTM networks for anomaly classification, introduced a statistical detector based on Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust training labels.
result Precision and recall of the LSTM classifier improved by 7% and 22% respectively after statistical relabeling.
Survival analysis of 832,941 Solana token launches shows a significant decline in graduation rate.
problem Analyzing the survival rate of Solana token launches and identifying factors affecting graduation.
method Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models.
result The survival rate of Solana token launches has declined significantly, with a 3.18x decrease from previous rates.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
ChatGPT launch boosted AI-related crypto assets by 10.7% to 15.6%.
problem Investor perception of AI assets after ChatGPT launch.
method Synthetic difference-in-difference methodology.
result AI-related crypto assets experienced significant returns after ChatGPT launch.
Illegal insider trading of stocks is based on releasing non-public information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Detecting illegal insider trading is difficult due to the complex, nonlinear, and non-stationary nature of the stock ma…
Generative AI boosts analyst reports but increases forecast errors.
problem Improving financial analyst reports with AI.
method Natural experiment using FactSet's AI platform.
result AI-assisted reports are more comprehensive but lead to higher forecast errors.
We study a class of fully nonlinear elliptic equations on closed Hermitian manifolds. We derive C∞ {\em a priori} estimates, and then prove the existence of admissible solutions. In the approach, a new Hermitian metic is constructed to launch the method of continuity.
Everyday we are exposed to various chemicals via food additives, cleaning and cosmetic products and medicines -- and some of them might be toxic. However testing the toxicity of all existing compounds by biological experiments is neither financially nor logistically feasible. Therefore the government agencies NIH, EPA …
Improves deep learning for Airbnb search ranking.
problem Challenges in ranking inventory and handling new listings.
method New ranking neural network architecture, positional bias handling, and cold start solutions.
result Significant improvements in inventory ranking and new listing treatment.
Comparison Lift uses bandit algorithms to optimize online ad testing.
problem Optimizing online ad testing to maximize click-through rates.
method Bandit-based experimentation algorithm that adapts to test results.
result Ad click-through rates increased by 46% on average.
Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.
Organizations adapt ML models to new data types using existing resources.
problem Adapting ML models to new data types in evolving applications.
method Utilize organizational resources like statistics, knowledge bases, and existing services to create a common feature space.
result Reduces model development time from months to days.
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…
Cloud-native simulator studies global trading latencies.
problem Understanding latencies in planetary-scale automated trading systems.
method Cloud-native, open-source simulator with distributed clients.
result Demonstrates latencies in real-world trading systems.
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
We introduce a new dataset of 293,008 high definition (1360 x 1360 pixels) fashion images paired with item descriptions provided by professional stylists. Each item is photographed from a variety of angles. We provide baseline results on 1) high-resolution image generation, and 2) image generation conditioned on the gi…
Examines insurance market development and similarity post-2004 EU enlargement.
problem Comparing insurance markets of EU old and new members post-enlargement.
method Analyzes data from 2004 to present to compare insurance markets.
result Identifies similarities and differences in insurance markets post-2004 enlargement.
This paper uses SARIMA models to forecast Nifty 50 index.
problem Forecasting the movement of Nifty 50 index.
method Applied Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.
result The most appropriate SARIMA model was selected based on AIC criteria.
Achilles predicts Gold vs USD with a profitable trading bot.
problem Accurate and consistent prediction of commodity prices.
method LSTM neural network for minute-by-minute predictions.
result $1623.52 profit in 23 days of testing.
The democratization of machine learning (ML) has led to ML-based machine vision systems for autonomous driving, traffic monitoring, and video surveillance. However, true democratization cannot be achieved without greatly simplifying the process of collecting groundtruth for training and testing these systems. This grou…
Diffusion approximations optimize sequential experimentation for uncertain parameters.
problem Maximizing reward from unknown parameter Θ with delayed action.
method Bayesian sequential experimentation framework, dynamic programming, diffusion asymptotics.
result Derives diffusion approximation for optimal experimentation strategy.
New Roman pipeline detects astronomical transients.
problem Automated detection of transients from Roman Space Telescope data.
method Machine learning model RuBR for distinguishing real from fake detections.
result Effective real-bogus classification in Roman era.
Deep learning boosts cable capacity by 19%.
problem Maximizing cable capacity under power constraints.
method Optimized launch powers using deep neural networks.
result 19% increase in capacity per Watt.
Models applied on real time response task, like click-through rate (CTR) prediction model, require high accuracy and rigorous response time. Therefore, top-performing deep models of high depth and complexity are not well suited for these applications with the limitations on the inference time. In order to further impro…
Cryptocurrencies use blockchain tech for secure transactions, offering new research opportunities.
problem Misunderstanding of cryptocurrency technology and lack of empirical data.
method Analyzing detailed transaction data and summarizing statistics.
result Opportunity for academic research in financial economics.
The Langlands Program was launched in the late 60s with the goal of relating Galois representations and automorphic forms. In recent years a geometric version has been developed which leads to a mysterious duality between certain categories of sheaves on moduli spaces of (flat) bundles on algebraic curves. Three years …
The paper improves A/B testing for non-Gaussian data, ensuring reliable results with large sample sizes.
problem Inaccurate A/B testing results due to non-normal data and unequal sample sizes.
method Derives explicit formulas for minimum sample size and introduces an Edgeworth-based correction.
result Corrected method improves reliability of A/B testing in real-world conditions.
For a finite dimensional real vector space V with inner product, let F(V) be the block structure space, in the sense of surgery theory, of the projective space of V. Continuing a program launched in part I, we investigate F as a functor on vector spaces with inner product, relying on functor calculus ideas. It was show…
An adversarial machine learning approach is introduced to launch jamming attacks on wireless communications and a defense strategy is presented. A cognitive transmitter uses a pre-trained classifier to predict the current channel status based on recent sensing results and decides whether to transmit or not, whereas a j…
Uniswap analyzes liquidity provider risk and impermanent loss.
problem Risk and loss for liquidity providers in decentralized exchanges.
method Improved impermanent loss function for Uniswap v2, v3 comparison.
result Improved impermanent loss function for Uniswap v2.
Regulated Bitcoin futures led to higher volatility and trading volume.
problem Estimating the impact of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume.
method Employed a new causal approach, C-ARIMA.
result Regulated Bitcoin futures increased Bitcoin volatility by more than double.
A new algorithm speeds up elliptical slice sampling for truncated multivariate normals.
problem Efficiently sampling from truncated multivariate normal distributions with linear constraints.
method Adapting elliptical slice sampling to linearly truncated multivariate normals, with an algorithm for ellipse-polytope intersection in O(m log m) time.
result The algorithm enhances numerical stability, speeds up running time, and is easy to parallelize.
New algorithm clusters LLM inputs efficiently with quality control.
problem Scaling LLM inference cost and latency for millions of users.
method Two-stage algorithm using Mini-batch K-Means and greedy selection of representatives.
result Enforces similarity and attribute guardrails exactly, scales to tens of millions of samples.
New AI stock indices classify firms' AI engagement using 10-K filings.
problem Opaque AI selection criteria in existing ETFs.
method NLP analysis of 10-K filings to classify AI stocks.
result Companies with higher AI engagement have greater positive returns.
Hypersolvers enable fast continuous-depth models for practical applications.
problem Infinite-depth models like Neural ODEs are computationally infeasible for large problems.
method Introducing hypersolvers, neural networks that solve ODEs efficiently with theoretical guarantees.
result Hypersolvers achieve comparable inference time to traditional discrete networks, making continuous-depth models practical.
proxymate diagnoses and corrects proxy estimates for reliable inference.
problem Systematic bias in proxy estimates can lead to invalid inference on primary outcomes.
method Four-level framework for proxy validation and adjustment, including diagnostic checks and targeted corrections.
result Facilitated quick decision making on thousands of experiments at Meta.
Recently, mobile operators in many developing economies have launched "Mobile Money" platforms that deliver basic financial services over the mobile phone network. While many believe that these services can improve the lives of the poor, a consistent difficulty has been identifying individuals most likely to benefit fr…
New snooping attacks exploit deep RL without access to environment.
problem Security vulnerabilities in deep reinforcement learning.
method Proposes snooping threat models and attacks on RL agents.
result Adversaries can launch attacks without interacting with the environment.
Compact satellite tech detects flooded areas quickly.
problem Rapid access to satellite data and automatic flood detection.
method Automatically identifies cloud, water, and land in satellite images onboard small satellites.
result Reduced downlink bandwidth by 2 orders of magnitude.
New algorithm reduces federated learning rounds and improves privacy.
problem Inefficient synchronous federated learning causing scalability issues.
method Asynchronous federated learning with reduced communication and differential privacy via Gaussian noise.
result The algorithm reduces waiting times and network communication, making federated learning more scalable and private.
In this work we simulate null geodesics for the Bonnor massive dipole metric by implementing a symbolic-numerical algorithm in Sage and Python. This program is also capable of visualizing in 3D, in principle, the geodesics for any given metric. Geodesics are launched from a common point, collectively forming a cone of …