A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Method reconstructs networks from contagion dynamics.
Contagion maps detect network structure in noisy data.
Paper uses interbank contagion to predict U.S. bank defaults, finding it highly explanatory.
iConViz helps banks manage default contagion risk in networked loans.
Deep learning predicts contagion dynamics on complex networks.
In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we show that networks of interbank exposures can however significantly amplify contagi…
How, and to what extent, does an interconnected financial system endogenously amplify external shocks? This paper attempts to reconcile some apparently different views emerged after the 2008 crisis regarding the nature and the relevance of contagion in financial networks. We develop a common framework encompassing seve…
As impressively shown by the financial crisis in 2007/08, contagion effects in financial networks harbor a great threat for the stability of the entire system. Without sufficient capital requirements for banks and other financial institutions, shocks that are locally confined at first can spread through the entire syst…
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
New method detects currency contagion sources using causal inference.
Many new models for measuring financial contagion have been presented recently. While these models have not been specified for investment funds directly, there are many similarities that could be explored to extend the models. In this work we explore ideas developed about financial contagion to create a network of inve…
Measures risk contagion in financial networks using CoVaR.
Study combines intra-risk and contagion risk for SME bankruptcy prediction.
Model shows worldwide trade crises can be localized or global, depending on trade balance.
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
Propagation of balance-sheet or cash-flow insolvency across financial institutions may be modeled as a cascade process on a network representing their mutual exposures. We derive rigorous asymptotic results for the magnitude of contagion in a large financial network and give an analytical expression for the asymptotic …
Estimates network causal effects considering contagion and latent confounding.
Influential node detection is a central research topic in social network analysis. Many existing methods rely on the assumption that the network structure is completely known \textit{a priori}. However, in many applications, network structure is unavailable to explain the underlying information diffusion phenomenon. To…
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radical…
Study examines financial contagion at community level, finding increased contagion density and widespread transmission.
Study quantifies financial contagion risks in supply chains.
Model assesses how supply chain disruptions affect financial stability.
Study connects bank default models using dynamic contagion.
This research develops a new model for cyber risk and insurance pricing.
Modelling of contagion in interbank networks is discussed. A model taking into account bow-tie structure and dissasortativity of interbank networks is developed. The model is shown to provide a good quantitative description of the Russian interbank market. Detailed arguments favoring the non-percolative nature of conta…
Modeling financial contagion through bank networks, revealing solvency correlations.
Based on an empirical analysis of the network structure of the Austrian inter-bank market, we study the flow of funds through the banking network following exogenous shocks to the system. These shocks are implemented by stochastic changes in variables like interest rates, exchange rates, etc. We demonstrate that the sy…
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…
Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-t…
The paper validates a centrality measure for financial networks during financial distress.
The theory of multilayer networks is in its early stages, and its development provides vital methods for understanding complex systems. Multilayer networks, in their multiplex form, have been introduced within the last three years to analysing the structure of financial systems, and existing studies have modelled and e…
Model predicts asset prices from initial shocks using neural networks.
It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more complex aspect of financial contagion. This study presents an extension of the …
This paper optimizes cybersecurity resource allocation in networks with heterogeneous attacker and defender valuations.
We discuss the systemic risk implied by the interbank exposures reconstructed with the maximum entropy method. The maximum entropy method severely underestimates the risk of interbank contagion by assuming a fully connected network, while in reality the structure of the interbank network is sparsely connected. Here, we…
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
Common asset holdings are widely believed to have been the primary vector of contagion in the recent financial crisis. We develop a network approach to the amplification of financial contagion due to the combination of overlapping portfolios and leverage, and we show how it can be understood in terms of a generalized b…
In this work we introduce a model of default contagion that combines the approaches of Eisenberg-Noe interbank networks and dynamic mean field interactions. The proposed contagion mechanism provides an endogenous rule for early defaults in a network of financial institutions. The main result is to demonstrate a mean fi…
Multiplex Network Hawkes model for systemic risk measurement
We develop a structural default model for interconnected financial institutions in a probabilistic framework. For all possible network structures we characterize the joint default distribution of the system using Bayesian network methodologies. Particular emphasis is given to the treatment and consequences of cyclic fi…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate funding liquidity risk and contagion are available but they require not only banks' …
The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in e…
One of the most defining features of the global financial network is its inherent complex and intertwined structure. From the perspective of systemic risk it is important to understand the influence of this network structure on default contagion. Using sparse random graphs to model the financial network, asymptotic met…
Paper proposes methods to reduce financial contagion by targeted cash injections.
This paper uses MIS to identify key financial institutions with minimal risk contagion.
We develop a model for contagion in reinsurance networks by which primary insurers' losses are spread through the network. Our model handles general reinsurance contracts, such as typical excess of loss contracts. We show that simpler models existing in the literature--namely proportional reinsurance--greatly underesti…
We model the default contagion process in a large heterogeneous financial network under the interventions of a regulator (a central bank) with only partial information which is a more realistic setting than most current literature. We provide the analytical results for the asymptotic optimal intervention policies and t…
Modeling default contagion and systemic risk using a balls-and-bins approach.