In recent years, we have been faced with a series of natural disasters causing a tremendous amount of financial, environmental, and human losses. The unpredictable nature of natural disasters' behavior makes it hard to have a comprehensive situational awareness (SA) to support disaster management. Using opinion surveys…
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48 results for “natural disasters”
A Natural Disasters Indexq-fin.RM
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
Nostradamus: Weathering Worthq-fin.ST
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
Bayesian model uses mobile data to assess business resilience after hurricanes.
problem Evaluating economic impact of extreme shocks on businesses.
method Bayesian structural time series model with mobile phone data.
result Estimates business resilience after hurricanes, revealing key characteristics.
Unified framework for growth models with environmental risk and pollution-dependent disasters.
problem Analyzing how rare but catastrophic shocks interact with capital accumulation and pollution in stochastic growth models.
method General Poisson point process formulation leading to non-local HJB equations with closed-form solutions.
result Unified framework captures how environmental degradation amplifies macroeconomic vulnerability and strengthens incentives for abatement.
Natural Disaster Classification using Aerial Photography Explainable for Typhoon Damaged Featurecs.CV
This paper classifies typhoon damage features using aerial photography.
problem Typhoon damages and slow recovery times.
method Aerial photography for classification of eight classes including land covers and disaster areas.
result Visualize and explain typhoon disaster features using convolutional activation maps.
Paper examines how income support affects retirement decisions for low-income individuals.
problem Retirement decisions of low-income individuals affected by income disaster.
method Modeling consumption/savings, investment, and retirement choices with income support.
result Optimal retirement decision depends on the level of income support provided.
Monitoring of disasters is crucial for mitigating their effects on the environment and human population, and can be facilitated by the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), equipped with camera sensors that produce aerial photos of the areas of interest. A modern technique for recognition of events based on aerial pho…
Study proposes a tax-based system to share disaster risk among regions.
problem Systemic risk in catastrophic events and insurer insolvency.
method Public-private partnership with government intervention through taxation.
result Taxation system effectively shares residual claims in case of insurer insolvency.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
This paper improves typhoon intensity prediction using social media data and semantic word embeddings.
problem Short-term disaster prediction from historical data alone is limited.
method Combining semantically-enriched word embeddings with traditional word2vec for social media data, and an end-to-end learning framework.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in typhoon intensity prediction.
We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black…
Revisiting Classical Bagging with Modern Transfer Learning for On-the-fly Disaster Damage Detectorcs.LG
Automatic post-disaster damage detection using aerial imagery is crucial for quick assessment of damage caused by disaster and development of a recovery plan. The main problem preventing us from creating an applicable model in practice is that damaged (positive) examples we are trying to detect are much harder to obtai…
Proposes a new Hawkes process bandit model for disaster search and rescue.
problem Forecasting and detecting spatio-temporal events with undersampled or biased data.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm using Bayesian spatial Hawkes process estimation.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art spatial MAB algorithms in disaster search and rescue.
Investigates how extreme temperature events affect global equity portfolios.
problem Impact of extreme temperature events on global equity portfolios.
method Panel regression analysis and multi-objective portfolio optimization.
result Extreme temperature events negatively impact most sectors' returns.
In all types of disasters, from earthquakes to armed conflicts, aid workers need accurate and timely data such as damage to buildings and population displacement to mount an effective response. Remote sensing provides this data at an unprecedented scale, but extracting operationalizable information from satellite image…
Natural disasters can have catastrophic impacts on the functionality of infrastructure systems and cause severe physical and socio-economic losses. Given budget constraints, it is crucial to optimize decisions regarding mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery practices for these systems. This requires accurate…
Stocks of more resilient firms outperformed during the pandemic, reflecting disaster risk.
problem The impact of social distancing on firms' operations and stock performance.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firms' resilience and stock performance, controlling for risk factors.
result Stocks of more resilient firms are expected to yield significantly lower returns than less resilient ones, reflecting disaster risk.
DASC combines social media and car sensors to improve disaster response.
problem Inconsistent reliability and inconsistent availability of human sensors.
method Hybrid social-car sensing system using game theory, feedback control, and MDP.
result DASC improves detection accuracy and efficiency in disaster response.
The study uses machine learning to predict CAT bond coupons based on climate data.
problem Predicting CAT bond coupons using climate data.
method Combining climate indicators with machine learning models (random forest, gradient boosting, etc.).
result Extremely randomized trees achieved the lowest RMSE in predicting CAT bond coupons.
I-AID categorizes disaster tweets into useful information types.
problem Filtering useful information from social media during disasters.
method Multimodel approach using BERT, GAT, and Relation Network.
result I-AID outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in F1 scores.
Machine learning research for developing countries can demonstrate clear sustainable impact by delivering actionable and timely information to in-country government organisations (GOs) and NGOs in response to their critical information requirements. We co-create products with UK and in-country commercial, GO and NGO pa…
This paper analyzes extreme flooding risks and proposes insurance and bond solutions.
problem Severe rise in magnitude and frequency of floods causing catastrophic losses.
method Extremes analysis using Peaks-Over-Threshold method and Point Process model; Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR) estimation; Flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
result Developed flood risk vulnerability and threat analysis considering geography and economic factors; Proposed flood zoning insurance and catastrophic bond design.
Social media plays a major role during and after major natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, large-scale fires, etc.), as people ``on the ground'' post useful information on what is actually happening. Given the large amounts of posts, a major challenge is identifying the information that is useful and actionable. Emerg…
Socio-economic inequality is measured using various indices. The Gini () index, giving the overall inequality is the most commonly used, while the recently introduced Kolkata () index gives a measure of fraction of population who possess top fraction of wealth in the society. This article reviews the ch…
A crucial and time-sensitive task when any disaster occurs is to rescue victims and distribute resources to the right groups and locations. This task is challenging in populated urban areas, due to the huge burst of help requests generated in a very short period. To improve the efficiency of the emergency response in t…
Archetypal analysis represents a set of observations as convex combinations of pure patterns, or archetypes. The original geometric formulation of finding archetypes by approximating the convex hull of the observations assumes them to be real valued. This, unfortunately, is not compatible with many practical situations…
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
problem Assessing future weather-induced home insurance claims and losses for disaster preparedness.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression for forecasting future claim dynamics.
result Illustrates SVM approach in forecasting weather-induced home insurance claims in a Canadian city.
This paper studies the problem of spectrum shortage in an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) network during critical missions such as wildfire monitoring, search and rescue, and disaster monitoring. Such applications involve a high demand for high-throughput data transmissions such as real-time video-, image-, and voice- st…
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
problem Impact of natural disasters on stock market values.
method Used four benchmark models to measure abnormal returns.
result Firms experienced significant stock price drops after the Texas winter storm.
Satellite imaging is a critical technology for monitoring and responding to natural disasters such as flooding. Despite the capabilities of modern satellites, there is still much to be desired from the perspective of first response organisations like UNICEF. Two main challenges are rapid access to data, and the ability…
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
The study examines how climate risk influences sovereign debt default decisions.
problem The relationship between climate risk and sovereign debt default decisions.
method Calibration of a model to analyze the credit spreads of sovereign bonds and the impact of climate vulnerability on bond spreads.
result Climate risk does not significantly influence the decision to default on sovereign debt.
It is a challenging and complex task to acquire information from different regions of a disaster-affected area in a timely fashion. The extensive spread and reach of social media and networks allow people to share information in real-time. However, the processing of social media data and gathering of valuable informati…
Many post-disaster and -conflict regions do not have sufficient data on their transportation infrastructure assets, hindering both mobility and reconstruction. In particular, as the number of aging and deteriorating bridges increase, it is necessary to quantify their load characteristics in order to inform maintenance …
Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to assess the consequences of climate shocks, natural disasters, investments in infr…
Stock return forecasting is of utmost importance in the business world. This has been the favourite topic of research for many academicians since decades. Recently, regularization techniques have reported to tremendously increase the forecast accuracy of the simple regression model. Still, this model cannot incorporate…
This study tackles basis risk in weather parametric insurance using Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Mismatch between actual loss and payout in weather parametric insurance leads to loss without payout or payout without loss.
method Empirical research using Monte Carlo simulations to test diversification and hedging strategies.
result Portfolio basis risk and volatility decrease with more contracts, and spatial relationships significantly impact basis risk.
Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.
problem Misrepresentation of seismic effects across diverse landscapes.
method Causal Bayesian network with Gaussian Processes and normalizing flows.
result Achieves up to 35.2% AUC improvement over existing methods.
Novel approach detects early warning indicators in complex systems.
problem Detecting abrupt transitions in complex systems.
method Directed anisotropic diffusion map and latent stochastic dynamical systems.
result Early warning indicators can detect tipping points in state transitions.
Climate extreme events are constantly increasing. What is the effect of these potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy, with particular reference to the economic activities? Extreme precipitation events over most of the midlatitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become mo…
Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to applications such as situation awareness in disaster zones and mapping the spread of…
Radio tomographic imaging (RTI) is an emerging technology for localization of physical objects in a geographical area covered by wireless networks. With attenuation measurements collected at spatially distributed sensors, RTI capitalizes on spatial loss fields (SLFs) measuring the absorption of radio frequency waves at…
Deep learning enhances water resources management through data analysis.
problem Data volume and variety in water resources management.
method Systematic review of deep learning applications in hydrology and water resources.
result Deep learning improves water resources monitoring, prediction, and classification.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
problem Natural catastrophes and droughts increase insurance costs.
method Conditional GANs for generating spatio-temporal SWI maps.
result Simulates drought patterns up to 2050 for French regions.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, w…
We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but their use is hindered by the computational cost of existing inference schemes. Ou…