A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper introduces MTCM to measure multivariate tail dependence.
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.
New method simulates multivariate extreme events using GANs and Aitchison coordinates.
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint heavy-tailed random vectors featuring not only distinct marginal tail heaviness, but al…
Cluster GARCH model improves multivariate GARCH for high-dimensional asset returns.
The book chapter discusses tail risk analysis for financial data using extreme value statistics.
GPDFlow models extreme threshold exceedance with flexible dependence using normalizing flows.
Geometric framework for signed multivariate tail-dependence compatibility at various thresholds.
The t copula is often used in risk management as it allows for modelling tail dependence between risks and it is simple to simulate and calibrate. However, the use of a standard t copula is often criticized due to its restriction of having a single parameter for the degrees of freedom (dof) that may limit its capabilit…
Generative model captures complex dependence in financial data.
A new vine copula mixture model improves clustering accuracy for non-Gaussian data.
We construct new multivariate copulas on the basis of a generalized infinite partition-of-unity approach. This approach allows - in contrast to finite partition-of-unity copulas - for tail-dependence as well as for asymmetry. A possibility of fitting such copulas to real data from quantitative risk management is also p…
Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also undergone a large loss) as a function of the parameters of the underlying factor mod…
New tail dependence measures for stock indices.
New measures capture tail dependence and non-exchangeability in financial data.
Quantum computing speeds up risk analysis by efficiently sampling copulas.
The study measures systemic risk using common and tail dependence factors.
We leverage neural networks as universal approximators of monotonic functions to build a parameterization of conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). By the application of automatic differentiation with respect to response variables and then to parameters of this CDF representation, we are able to build bl…
New method optimizes tail dependence coefficient estimation.
The study examines tail dependence between global economic uncertainty and BRICS currencies using high-frequency data.
This paper improves tail dependence analysis by introducing a path-based approach.
We demonstrate both analytically and numerically that the existing methods for measuring tail dependence in copulas may sometimes underestimate the extent of extreme co-movements of dependent risks and, therefore, may not always comply with the new paradigm of prudent risk management. This phenomenon holds in the conte…
We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is suitable for time series with extremal dependence. We recover relevant information ab…
We consider the problem of risk diversification of -stable heavy tailed risks. We study the behaviour of the aggregated Value-at-Risk, with particular reference to the impact of different tail dependence structures on the limits to diversification. We confirm the large evidence of sub-additivity violations, particul…
Currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the mark…
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
This paper improves the robustness of risk estimation for financial positions.
New method identifies key channels for extreme brain events.
We introduce a family of copulas which are locally piecewise uniform in the interior of the unit cube of any given dimension. Within that family, the simultaneous control of tail dependencies of all projections to faces of the cube is possible and we give an efficient sampling algorithm. The combination of these two pr…
Based on a recent theorem due to the authors, it is shown how the extreme tail dependence between an asset and a factor or index or between two assets can be easily calibrated. Portfolios constructed with stocks with minimal tail dependence with the market exhibit a remarkable degree of decorrelation with the market at…
We demonstrate that the tail dependence should always be taken into account as a proxy for systematic risk of loss for investments. We provide the clear statistical evidence of that the structure of investment portfolios on a regulated market should be adjusted to the price of gold. Our finding suggests that the active…
We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for several copula families such as the Gaussian copula, copulas of a class of Gaussian mi…
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
New method models asymmetric data with improved tail dependence.
This paper examines how ESG scores can indicate riskiness.
We analyze the statistical dependency structure of the S&P 500 constituents in the 4-year period from 2007 to 2010 using intraday data from the New York Stock Exchange's TAQ database. With a copula-based approach, we find that the statistical dependencies are very strong in the tails of the marginal distributions. This…
CSD improves goodness-of-fit testing for higher-order dependence.
PCCs combine PCA and copulas for high-dimensional tail dependence modeling.
DSI improves tail-risk estimation in generative models by averaging checkpoints.
Model predicts global financial market risks and asset allocation.
Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for Gaussian and Stude…
The paper improves machine learning for heavy-tailed panel data.
Cryptocurrency markets exhibit violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging diversification claims.
Within the context of risk integration, we introduce in risk measurement stochastic holding period (SHP) models. This is done in order to obtain a `liquidity-adjusted risk measure' characterized by the absence of a fixed time horizon. The underlying assumption is that - due to changes on market liquidity conditions - o…
Measures risk contagion in financial networks using CoVaR.
We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables and for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are respectively the linear correlation and Spearman's rho conditio…
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the temptation to prefer a tractable rather than a meaningful candidate from the encompassing…
A new principle for extrapolating regression outside training data.