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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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54109163217 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for multistate regression

Study improves loan default risk estimation using advanced regression models.

problem Modeling loan default risk over time is challenging and affects financial reserves.
method Comparative study of three multistate regression techniques: Markov chain, beta regression, and multinomial logistic regression.
result Each successive model outperforms the previous, indicating greater sophistication.

New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.

problem Disability insurance claims are affected by long delays and adjudication processes.
method Proposes a new individual reserving model for real-time claim evolution.
result Shows that new reserves can be calculated as modifications of classic reserves.

MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.

problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.

Discovering quasipotential equations from data using machine learning.

problem Understanding escape mechanisms from metastable states in nonlinear systems.
method Combining neural networks and sparse regression to symbolically reconstruct quasipotential equations.
result Model-unbiased analytical forms of quasipotential discovered directly from data.

In this paper we propose a simple and efficient method to compute the ordered default time distributions in both the homogeneous case and the two-group heterogeneous case under the interacting intensity default contagion model. We give the analytical expressions for the ordered default time distributions with recursive…

2012-04-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Logit-link models reveal socio-temporal effects on microfinance delinquency.

problem Understanding and quantifying socio-temporal factors affecting microfinance loan delinquency.
method Developed and evaluated discrete-time logit-link models with fixed-effects and frailty extensions.
result Simple random intercept structures capture latent heterogeneity in microfinance repayment behavior.

New method links covariates to CTMCs using RKHS, improving state transitions modeling.

problem Traditional multistate models rely on linear relationships, limiting flexibility.
method Nonparametric approach using RKHS, with Frequentist and Bayesian versions.
result Effective in identifying nonlinear transition functions and predicting long-term behaviors.

RNNs struggle with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients, but we found a way to optimize training.

problem Challenging training of RNNs with chaotic dynamics due to exploding gradients.
method Relating loss gradients to Lyapunov spectrum to optimize training on chaotic data.
result RNNs with chaotic dynamics always have diverging gradients, while stable ones have bounded gradients.

This paper studies robust regression in the settings of Huber's εε-contamination models. We consider estimators that are maximizers of multivariate regression depth functions. These estimators are shown to achieve minimax rates in the settings of εε-contamination models for various regression problems including nonpa…

2017-02-15abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper studies the nonparametric modal regression problem systematically from a statistical learning view. Originally motivated by pursuing a theoretical understanding of the maximum correntropy criterion based regression (MCCR), our study reveals that MCCR with a tending-to-zero scale parameter is essentially moda…

2017-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Survey of SDR methods for high-dimensional regression and embedding.

problem Reducing dimensionality in high-dimensional data.
method Involves both statistical and machine learning approaches, covering inverse and forward regression methods.
result Supervised Kernel Dimension Reduction is equivalent to supervised PCA.

This paper reviews SDR methods for multivariate response regression.

problem Handling sufficient dimension reduction for multivariate response regression.
method Characterizes SDR estimators as inverse or forward regression methods.
result Pooled marginal, projective resampling, distance-based, ordinary least squares, partial least squares, and semiparametric SDR estimators are discussed.

Paper introduces semi-supervised linear extremile regression for high-dimensional data.

problem Challenges in high-dimensional extremile regression due to data sparsity and overfitting.
method Proposes semi-supervised learning for linear extremile regression, achieving n\sqrt{n}-consistency.
result Demonstrates improved estimation efficiency and performance in high-dimensional settings.

Prevalidated ridge regression simplifies logistic regression for high-dimensional data.

problem Efficient probabilistic classification in high-dimensional data with logistic regression.
method Developed a prevalidated ridge regression model that matches logistic regression's performance but is more computationally efficient.
result Prevalidated ridge regression achieves similar classification error and log-loss to logistic regression for high-dimensional data.

We simplify complex regression coefficients using linearization and feature comparison.

problem Interpreting high-dimensional regression coefficients from nonlinear responses.
method Developed a linearization method to derive feature coefficients and compare them with regression coefficients.
result Shows how regression coefficients relate to linearized feature coefficients and how they change under regularization.

Unified framework for fair regression under demographic parity.

problem Ensuring fairness in regression tasks subject to demographic parity constraints.
method Proposes a unified framework applicable to various regression tasks with a broad spectrum of loss functions, derived a novel characterization of the fair risk minimizer, and established theoretical consistency and convergence rates.
result Effective minimization of risk while satisfying fairness constraints across various regression settings.

Locally adaptive interpretable regression improves linear regression's predictability.

problem Linear regression's predictability is limited; it lacks adaptability.
method Locally adaptive interpretable regression (LoAIR) uses neural networks to predict percentile of a Gaussian distribution for regression coefficients.
result LoAIR achieves comparable or better predictive performance than state-of-the-art baselines.

Huber regression assessed for robustness in statistical learning.

problem Understanding Huber regression in nonparametric statistical learning.
method Assessment from statistical learning perspective, focusing on risk consistency, adaptive tuning, and convergence rates.
result Huber regression can be asymptotically mean regression calibrated under (1+ε)(1+ε)-moment conditions, justifying its robustness.

Least Angle Regression is a promising technique for variable selection applications, offering a nice alternative to stepwise regression. It provides an explanation for the similar behavior of LASSO (1\ell_1-penalized regression) and forward stagewise regression, and provides a fast implementation of both. The idea has…

2008-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

We analyze coresets for regularized regression problems and propose a modified lasso that yields smaller coresets.

problem Analyzing coresets for regularized regression problems.
method Examined coresets for ridge regression and proposed a modified lasso problem.
result No coreset for regularized regression can be smaller than the unregularized version when reqsr eq s.

Study uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models and mixed regression.

problem Uniform consistency in nonparametric mixture models and mixed regression models.
method Construct uniformly consistent estimators under general conditions, develop novel technical tools.
result Prove uniform consistency results for nonparametric mixtures and mixed regression models.

Collider regression improves predictive performance in regression tasks.

problem Discarding prior causal knowledge in regression tasks.
method Collider regression framework incorporating probabilistic causal knowledge from collider structures.
result Proves positive generalization benefit and provides closed-form estimators.

We describe dimensionally constrained symbolic regression which has been developed for mass measurement in certain classes of events in high-energy physics (HEP). With symbolic regression, we can derive equations that are well known in HEP. However, in problems with large number of variables, we find that by constraini…

2011-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

New GP model estimates piecewise continuous functions.

problem Piecewise continuous regression functions in scientific and engineering applications.
method Local Gaussian process model with partitioned local data and joint estimation of boundaries.
result Superior performance over conventional GP models in estimating piecewise regression functions.

This work analyzes Fréchet regression using comparison geometry, providing theoretical and practical insights.

problem Analyzing data on complex structures like manifolds and graphs.
method Theoretical analysis through comparison geometry, focusing on existence, uniqueness, and stability of the Fréchet mean.
result Key results on the existence, uniqueness, and stability of the Fréchet mean, along with statistical guarantees for nonparametric regression.

Study on reducing dimensionality in high-dimensional regression with kernel methods and stability analysis.

problem Analyzing errors in high-dimensional regression with dimensionality reduction and kernel regression.
method Derive a stability result for kernel regression with Wasserstein distance and apply it to PCA to deduce convergence rates.
result Two-step procedure yields useful convergence rates in semi-supervised settings.

Modal regression estimates the local modes of the distribution of YY given X=xX=x, instead of the mean, as in the usual regression sense, and can hence reveal important structure missed by usual regression methods. We study a simple nonparametric method for modal regression, based on a kernel density estimate (KDE) of …

2014-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

pGMM kernel outperforms ordinary ridge regression and RBF kernel ridge regression without tuning.

problem Comparing pGMM kernel regression with other ridge regression methods.
method Implemented and compared pGMM kernel regression with ordinary ridge regression and RBF kernel ridge regression.
result pGMM kernel performs well without tuning and can match boosted trees with parameter tuning.

The paper explores fair regression and classification under demographic parity constraints.

problem Ensuring fairness in regression and classification models under demographic parity constraints.
method Characterizes the optimal fair regression function using a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs and studies the connection between fair classification and regression.
result The optimal fair regression function is derived from the solution to a barycenter problem with optimal transport costs, and the optimal fair cost-sensitive classifiers can be derived by applying thresholds to this function.

VIR model improves regression accuracy and uncertainty estimation for imbalanced data.

problem Imbalanced regression datasets lead to poor model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
method VIR model uses probabilistic smoothing and reweighting to estimate latent representations and uncertainty.
result VIR model outperforms state-of-the-art models in accuracy and uncertainty estimation.