A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes methods for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes robust to unconfoundedness violations.
problem Estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes using historical observational data when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Utilizes proximal causal inference framework to propose three nonparametric identification methods, a (K+1)-robust method, and establish a semiparametric efficiency bound.
result Establishes the (K+1)-robust method for learning optimal dynamic treatment regimes, validating its efficiency and multiple robustness through numerical experiments.
The paper studies causal effects of multiple treatments in healthcare databases with rare outcomes.
problem Estimating causal effects of multiple treatments in healthcare databases with rare outcomes.
method The paper designs three sets of simulations and compares the operating characteristics of three types of methods: Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), regression adjustment on multivariate spline of generalized propensity scores (RAMS), and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with multinomial logistic regression or generalized boosted models.
result BART and RAMS provide lower bias and mean squared error compared to IPTW methods.
Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single treatment. In this work, we construct techniques for estimation with multiple treat…
Uplift modeling is an emerging machine learning approach for estimating the treatment effect at an individual or subgroup level. It can be used for optimizing the performance of interventions such as marketing campaigns and product designs. Uplift modeling can be used to estimate which users are likely to benefit from …
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our propos…
The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, has many important applications, from precision medicine to recommender…
Estimating the long-term effects of treatments is of interest in many fields. A common challenge in estimating such treatment effects is that long-term outcomes are unobserved in the time frame needed to make policy decisions. One approach to overcome this missing data problem is to analyze treatments effects on an int…
Inverse classification uses an induced classifier as a queryable oracle to guide test instances towards a preferred posterior class label. The result produced from the process is a set of instance-specific feature perturbations, or recommendations, that optimally improve the probability of the class label. In this work…
ICA accurately estimates treatment effects even with confounders.
problem Estimating treatment effects in the presence of confounding variables.
method Uses Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify latent sources and estimate mixing coefficients.
result Linear ICA can consistently estimate multiple treatment effects, even with Gaussian confounders, and is more sample-efficient than Orthogonal Machine Learning (OML).
Optimal biomarker combinations for treatment-selection can be derived by minimizing total burden to the population caused by the targeted disease and its treatment. However, when multiple biomarkers are present, including all in the model can be expensive and hurt model performance. To remedy this, we consider feature …
We study tensors on Lie groupoids suitably compatible with the groupoid structure, called {\em multiplicative}. Our main result gives a complete description of these objects only in terms of infinitesimal data. Special cases include the infinitesimal counterparts of multiplicative forms, multivector fields and holomorp…