Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
problem Predicting remaining useful life of DSH subsystems with unknown failure modes.
method Unsupervised framework using mixture of Gaussian regressions and Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Improved prediction accuracy and interpretability of RUL.
This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.
problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.
Study identifies failure modes of machine learning models in out-of-distribution settings.
problem Machine learning models fail to generalize well to new, unseen data.
method Theoretical study of gradient-descent-trained linear classifiers on easy-to-learn tasks, followed by experiments on modern neural networks.
result Two failure modes of spurious correlations are uncovered: geometric and statistical.
We identify and study two common failure modes for early training in deep ReLU nets. For each we give a rigorous proof of when it occurs and how to avoid it, for fully connected and residual architectures. The first failure mode, exploding/vanishing mean activation length, can be avoided by initializing weights from a …
Feedback alignment methods need to be evaluated for accuracy and gradient cosine similarity.
problem Evaluating feedback alignment methods
method Proposed diagnostic evaluation protocol
result Identified silent failures in standard reporting pair
A new method normalizes activations to match batch normalization without batch dependence.
problem Performance degradation with batch-independent normalization techniques.
method Proxy-Normalizing Activations
result Proxy-Normalization technique emulates batch normalization's behavior and performance.
Study constructs balanced datasets for seismic failure prediction.
problem Imbalanced datasets limit machine learning performance in seismic failure prediction.
method Framework with three steps: GMF identification, probability density estimation, and sample transformation.
result Framework improves machine learning performance in seismic failure mode prediction.
Revisits PPO design choices, exposing failure modes and proposing alternatives.
problem Failure modes of standard PPO in new environments.
method Revisits standard PPO design choices, exposes failure modes, and proposes alternative approaches.
result Alternative design choices prevent failure modes in new environments.
This paper characterizes VAE training pathologies and their effects on tasks.
problem Characterizing VAE training pathologies and their impact on downstream tasks.
method Concretely characterizing conditions for VAE training pathologies and their connection to specific downstream tasks.
result Connects VAE training pathologies to specific downstream tasks like learning compressed and disentangled representations, adversarial robustness, and semi-supervised learning.
In the last two years, more than 200 papers have been written on how machine learning (ML) systems can fail because of adversarial attacks on the algorithms and data; this number balloons if we were to incorporate papers covering non-adversarial failure modes. The spate of papers has made it difficult for ML practition…
Proposes IIB for domain generalization, overcoming failure modes of IRM.
problem Domain generalization with nonlinear classifiers and pseudo-invariant features.
method Invariant Information Bottleneck (IIB) using mutual information and variational formulation.
result Significantly outperforms IRM on synthetic datasets and real-world benchmarks.
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
Unified theory explains two failure modes of deep transformers and provides initialisation guidelines.
problem Two failure modes (rank collapse and entropy collapse) of self-attention layers in deep transformers.
method Analytical theory of signal propagation through deep transformers, using the Random Energy Model analogy.
result Simple algorithm to compute trainability diagrams for correct initialisation hyper-parameters.
CB-SLICE identifies concept-based error slices in deep learning models.
problem Systematic errors in deep learning models on specific groups.
method Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) and concept representations.
result CB-SLICE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in error slice identification.
There are several distinct failure modes for overoptimization of systems on the basis of metrics. This occurs when a metric which can be used to improve a system is used to an extent that further optimization is ineffective or harmful, and is sometimes termed Goodhart's Law. This class of failure is often poorly unders…
Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.
problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.
A new method combines MCMC results to avoid failures in parallel computing.
problem Parallel MCMC's sensitivity to subposterior sampling issues leads to failures.
method Parallel Active Inference (PAI) uses Gaussian Process (GP) surrogate modeling and active learning.
result PAI successfully combines MCMC results where previous methods fail.
Language models fail to execute simple steps, showing gating and binding errors.
problem Procedural hallucinations in language models, failing to execute simple steps.
method Analyzed long-context binding tasks, identifying gating and binding errors.
result Procedural errors are due to gating and binding failures, with recency bias contributing to the latter.
Simplified non-contrastive learning avoids representation collapse.
problem Training failure modes in self-supervised learning.
method Hyperdimensional computing and inductive bias.
result The approach avoids representation collapses.
Differentiable methods fail due to spectral issues in Jacobians.
problem Chaos-based failures in differentiable programming.
method Trace failures to the spectrum of Jacobians.
result Criteria for avoiding spectral failure in optimization.
Deep reinforcement learning has learned to play many games well, but failed on others. To better characterize the modes and reasons of failure of deep reinforcement learners, we test the widely used Asynchronous Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithm on four deceptive games, which are specially designed to provide challenges to …
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
Adaptive Stress Testing detects financial fraud by simulating potential failures.
problem Detecting and mitigating vulnerabilities in financial systems.
method Developed a simplified model using historical data and reinforcement learning.
result Identified the most likely path to system failure and improved fraud detection.
This work aims to reduce inexplicable errors in deep neural networks by obtaining class-level semantics and penalizing misclassifications.
problem Deep neural networks misclassify images, leading to inexplicable errors that can harm trust and societal impact.
method Obtain class-level semantics, propose Weighted Loss Functions (WLFs), and train classifiers with these methods.
result Trained networks have more explicable failure modes and comparable accuracy to existing methods.
MD tree diagnoses model failures using loss landscape metrics.
problem Diagnose model failures without knowing training configuration.
method MD tree based on loss landscape metrics.
result MD tree achieves 87.7% accuracy in dataset transfer tasks, outperforming validation-based approaches.
Adaptive auditing improves AI robustness testing with anytime-valid guarantees.
problem Cost and time of annotation limit rigorous AI failure mode characterization.
method Introduces hypothesis testing framework for adaptive audits using SAVI.
result Proves anytime-valid type-I error control and robustness certification.
Jeffreys Flow improves robustness of Boltzmann generators for rare event sampling.
problem Rare events and metastable trapping in sampling physical systems with rough energy landscapes.
method Introduces Jeffreys Flow, a robust generative framework using Parallel Tempering distillation and symmetric Jeffreys divergence to mitigate mode collapse and improve mode coverage.
result Minimizing Jeffreys divergence suppresses mode collapse and corrects inaccuracies in multi-modal distributions.
New model explains GAN training dynamics and mode collapse.
problem Mode collapse in GANs, where generators fail to reproduce diversity.
method Simplified model using particles in output space, coupled by universal kernel.
result Gradient regularizers can optimally yield convergence through critical damping.
HalluWorld benchmarks hallucinations in language models across diverse tasks.
problem Inconsistent benchmarks of hallucination in language models.
method Explicit reference-world formulation, synthetic and semi-synthetic environments, controlled variation of world complexity.
result Models struggle with perceptual hallucination but not multi-step state tracking.
While autonomous vehicle (AV) technology has shown substantial progress, we still lack tools for rigorous and scalable testing. Real-world testing, the de-facto evaluation method, is dangerous to the public. Moreover, due to the rare nature of failures, billions of miles of driving are needed to statisticall…
We consider the problem of learning from sparse and underspecified rewards, where an agent receives a complex input, such as a natural language instruction, and needs to generate a complex response, such as an action sequence, while only receiving binary success-failure feedback. Such success-failure rewards are often …
New method combines FMEA and Bayesian Network for root cause analysis in lithium-ion battery production.
problem Complex cause-effect relationships in lithium-ion battery production.
method Combining FMEA with Bayesian Network to detect and resolve inconsistencies.
result Holistic method builds large-scale cross-process Bayesian Failure Network for root cause analysis.
Improved score-based models generate high-quality images up to 256x256.
problem Training score-based models for high-resolution images is unstable and limited.
method Theoretical analysis, exponential moving average of model weights.
result Score-based models can generate high-fidelity images up to 256x256.
Improves NF for complex data distributions with multiple modes.
problem Difficulty in handling data distributions with multiple isolated modes.
method Proposes a new framework using variational latent representation to improve NF.
result Significantly more powerful for generating data distributions with multiple modes.
Simple mode exploration methods do not improve performance in neural networks.
problem Improving predictive probabilities in neural networks.
method Exploring local regions around diverse solutions using simple methods.
result Simple mode exploration methods do not improve performance.
Quantization-aware training can recover accuracy lost by post-training quantization.
problem Post-training quantization (PTQ) can fail sharply at aggressive bitwidths.
method A unified geometric framework that explains PTQ failure and QAT recovery.
result QAT has a useful bias that steers iterates back into the basin.
In industrial systems, certain process variables that need to be monitored for detecting faults are often difficult or impossible to measure. Soft sensor techniques are widely used to estimate such difficult-to-measure process variables from easy-to-measure ones. Soft sensor modeling requires training datasets includin…
We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate the conditional mode by finding the maximum of the estimated conditional density…
Automatic methods for generating state-of-the-art neural network architectures without human experts have generated significant attention recently. This is because of the potential to remove human experts from the design loop which can reduce costs and decrease time to model deployment. Neural architecture search (NAS)…
Pathfinder uses quasi-Newton optimization for variational inference.
problem Approximating complex posterior distributions efficiently.
method Pathfinder combines quasi-Newton optimization with variational methods to approximate log densities.
result Pathfinder produces draws with lower KL divergence than ADVI and comparable to HMC, requiring fewer evaluations.
MCCA extracts shared structure from multiple tensor datasets.
problem Extracting shared structure from multiple tensor datasets.
method Multilinear common component analysis (MCCA) using Kronecker products of mode-wise covariance matrices.
result MCCA constructs a common basis that retains information from multiple tensor datasets.
Deep learning helps remove secondary B-mode polarization to detect primordial gravitational waves.
problem Removing secondary B-mode polarization from CMB data to detect primordial gravitational waves. method Applied deep learning (ResUNet-CMB) to estimate and remove multiple sources of secondary B-mode polarization. result Deep learning can produce nearly optimal, unbiased estimates of the amplitude of primordial gravitational waves.
Much of the field of Machine Learning exhibits a prominent set of failure modes, including vulnerability to adversarial examples, poor out-of-distribution (OoD) detection, miscalibration, and willingness to memorize random labelings of datasets. We characterize these as failures of robust generalization, which extends …
LLMs struggle to generate random numbers from statistical distributions, leading to biased results in applications.
problem LLMs' inability to generate random numbers accurately from specified distributions.
method Dual-protocol design: Batch Generation and Independent Requests, benchmarking 11 models across 15 distributions.
result Sampling fidelity degrades with distributional complexity and horizon, leading to systematic biases in downstream applications.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Improves DPGMM sampler by better initializing subclusters for more effective clustering.
problem Poor initialization of subclusters leads to ineffective sampling and clustering.
method Proposed heuristic and deep learning-based methods to improve subcluster initialization.
result Better splits lead to improved performance, results, and stability.