Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

200401601801 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for multi-step optimization

Efficiently optimizes expensive functions with multi-step lookahead using one-shot optimization.

problem Optimizing expensive functions with long-term impacts using myopic approaches.
method Formulated as nested optimization problems within a multi-step scenario tree, optimized in one-shot fashion.
result Multi-step expected improvement is computationally tractable and outperforms existing methods.

New algorithm learns optimal policy with multi-step lookahead information.

problem Learning optimal policy in reinforcement learning with multi-step lookahead information is NP-hard.
method Adaptive batching policies that process lookahead in state-dependent chunks.
result Order-optimal regret bounds up to a constant factor of lookahead horizon.

Paper proposes a dual-level approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems.

problem Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems for automatic control and optimization.
method Hybrid input forecasting using LSTM-STMs and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
result Hybrid models achieve higher log-likelihood and lower MSE compared to conventional methods.

The paper calculates prices for multi-step barrier options under the Black-Scholes model.

problem Calculating prices for multi-step barrier options with varying barriers and time steps.
method Derives a general, explicit expression for option prices using the Black-Scholes model and a multi-step reflection principle.
result Derives a multi-step reflection principle that generalizes the reflection principle of Brownian motion.

Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.

problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.

Reinforcement learning has attracted great attention recently, especially policy gradient algorithms, which have been demonstrated on challenging decision making and control tasks. In this paper, we propose an active multi-step TD algorithm with adaptive stepsizes to learn actor and critic. Specifically, our model cons…

2019-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.

problem Achieving reliable error bounds in online multi-step time-series forecasting.
method Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) adapted for multi-step forecasting with dynamic significance levels.
result Proposes a multi-step ACI algorithm with finite-sample coverage guarantees for non-exchangeable data.

BCI provides calibrated prediction intervals for time series forecasts.

problem Calibration of prediction intervals for time series forecasts.
method BCI wraps around any time series forecasting models and optimizes interval lengths using dynamic programming.
result BCI achieves long-term coverage under arbitrary distribution shifts and temporal dependence.

The paper introduces a multi-step loss function to improve model-based reinforcement learning.

problem Compounding of one-step prediction errors in long trajectories.
method A multi-step objective function combining MSE losses at various future horizons.
result Models trained with the multi-step loss achieve significant improvement in future prediction.

Looped Transformers learn to implement multi-step gradient descent for in-context learning.

problem Understanding the learnability of multi-step algorithms in multi-layer Transformers.
method Training weight-sharing looped Transformers for in-context linear regression, proving gradient dominance condition for convergence.
result Looped Transformers implement multi-step preconditioned gradient descent, converging to global minimizer.

Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New method identifies network dynamics and noise structure.

problem Estimating network and disturbance topologies in dynamic systems.
method Extended multi-step Sequential Linear Regression and Weighted Null Space Fitting methods.
result Consistent estimation of dynamic networks with reduced computational burden.

In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…

2018-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

ForecastNet uses a time-variant deep feed-forward neural network for better multi-step-ahead time series forecasting.

problem Time-invariant architectures limit multi-step-ahead forecasting.
method ForecastNet employs a deep feed-forward architecture with time-variant parameters and interleaved outputs.
result ForecastNet outperforms other models on multi-step-ahead time series forecasting tasks.

Diffusion-VAE tackles multi-step stock price prediction with stochastic noise.

problem Challenges in multi-step stock price prediction due to stochasticity and target price sequence.
method Combines hierarchical VAE and diffusion probabilistic techniques for seq2seq stock prediction.
result D-Va model outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in prediction accuracy and variance.

A multi-step framework tackles online unsupervised domain adaptation with novel mean-target subspace computation.

problem Online unsupervised domain adaptation with unlabelled target data arriving sequentially.
method Multi-step framework with a novel mean-target subspace computation and temporal coherency consideration.
result Improved performance over previous approaches on four datasets.

Quantile deep learning improves time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in multi-step time series prediction.
method Developed a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction.
result Integrating quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without loss in accuracy.

Transformers learn multi-step reasoning through gradient descent.

problem Understanding how transformers solve symbolic multi-step reasoning tasks.
method Theoretical analysis of gradient descent dynamics and multi-phase training.
result Trained one-layer transformers can solve both backward and forward reasoning tasks with generalization guarantees.

FedSGM tackles constrained federated learning with unified framework.

problem Functional constraints, communication bottlenecks, local updates, and partial client participation in federated learning.
method Unified framework based on switching gradient method, incorporating bi-directional error feedback, and soft switching for stability.
result Achieves O(1/T)\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{T}) convergence rate with high-probability bounds decoupling from sampling noise.

Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.

problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.

AEnbMIMOCQR generates robust multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.

problem Generating reliable multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
method Adaptive ensemble batch multi-input multi-output conformalized quantile regression (AEnbMIMOCQR) based on conformal prediction principles.
result AEnbMIMOCQR provides close to exact coverage and robustness to distribution shifts.

New method optimizes costly functions with unknown costs and budget constraints.

problem Optimizing functions with unknown and heterogeneous evaluation costs under a budget constraint.
method Budgeted multi-step expected improvement acquisition function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in various synthetic and real problems.

Multi-step greedy policies have been extensively used in model-based reinforcement learning (RL), both when a model of the environment is available (e.g.,~in the game of Go) and when it is learned. In this paper, we explore their benefits in model-free RL, when employed using multi-step dynamic programming algorithms: …

2019-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.

problem Improving the effectiveness of LLMs in solving multi-step reasoning problems.
method Introducing a multi-step latent variable model to characterize CoT prompting from a statistical estimation viewpoint.
result The CoT estimator is equivalent to a Bayesian estimator when the pretraining dataset is large.

New algorithm approximates maximum of certain distributions on subsets.

problem Finding maximum of distributions on subsets.
method Connection between sampling and optimization via exchange inequalities and local random walks.
result Simple nearly-optimal approximation algorithm for MAP inference.

JANET improves time series prediction with adaptive uncertainty regions.

problem Time series data's lack of exchangeability and multi-step prediction challenges.
method Proposes JANET, a framework for joint adaptive prediction regions with controlled error rates.
result Demonstrates superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse datasets.

Novel unsupervised feature selection method using multi-step Markov transition probability.

problem Neglected relationships between non-adjacent data points in feature selection.
method MMFS (Multi-step Markov transition probability for Feature Selection) approach, employing positive and negative viewpoints.
result MMFS effectively maintains data structure in unsupervised feature selection.

The paper addresses Dyna-style RL's value hallucination issue by proposing a new algorithm.

problem Value hallucination in Dyna-style RL due to bootstrapping simulated states.
method Introduces a new Dyna algorithm using predecessor models with multi-step updates.
result Evidence supports the Hallucinated Value Hypothesis (HVH), suggesting predecessor models with multi-step updates are promising.

Adaptive optimal control of nonlinear dynamic systems with deterministic and known dynamics under a known undiscounted infinite-horizon cost function is investigated. Policy iteration scheme initiated using a stabilizing initial control is analyzed in solving the problem. The convergence of the iterations and the optim…

2015-05-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes Constrained Q-learning for reinforcement learning with constraints.

problem Optimizing multiple objectives while adhering to constraints in reinforcement learning.
method Directly restricts the action space in Q-update to learn optimal Q-function for constrained MDP.
result Improves safety and optimality in high-level decision making for autonomous driving.

Spatiotemporal systems are common in the real-world. Forecasting the multi-step future of these spatiotemporal systems based on the past observations, or, Spatiotemporal Sequence Forecasting (STSF), is a significant and challenging problem. Although lots of real-world problems can be viewed as STSF and many research wo…

2018-08-21abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores dual learning, a technique that improves machine translation and image transformation.

problem Understanding and improving dual learning's effectiveness and conditions.
method Theoretical analysis and algorithmic extension of dual learning.
result Multi-step dual learning boosts performance under mild conditions.