Credit risk stress tests can misrepresent default probabilities due to inconsistent parameterization.
problem Misleading default probability projections in credit risk stress tests.
method Analysis of credit risk stress testing models and their parameterization.
result Current portfolios tend to align with through-the-cycle portfolios, leading to spurious default rate projections.
This note improves correlation stress tests using geodesic distance.
problem Improving financial risk management through better covariance stress tests.
method Proposes a new geometrically invariant definition of correlation stress tests.
result Demonstrates a submanifold approach to stress testing covariance matrices.
Proposes a reverse stress testing framework for dynamic models.
problem Finding plausible models under adverse stresses.
method Compound Poisson process, Kullback-Leibler divergence, optimization problem.
result Intensity and severity of process depend on time and state.
Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.
problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.
Adaptive Stress Testing detects financial fraud by simulating potential failures.
problem Detecting and mitigating vulnerabilities in financial systems.
method Developed a simplified model using historical data and reinforcement learning.
result Identified the most likely path to system failure and improved fraud detection.
New deep learning method improves financial stress testing accuracy.
problem Traditional stress testing methods are criticized for unrealistic assumptions and estimation errors.
method Proposes a novel Deep Learning approach for Dynamic Balance Sheet Stress Testing.
result Empirical results show significant improvement in accuracy over traditional methods.
New risk factors improve stress testing accuracy.
problem Improving stress testing accuracy with new risk factors.
method Adapted PCA and autoencoders for dimension reduction and interpretation.
result Aggregated risk factors enhance stress testing outcomes.
An integrated and extendable approach for stress-testing loan portfolios
problem Stress-testing loan portfolios
method Simulate completed portfolios, generate uncertain cash flow history, compute credit risk metrics
result Enhanced stress-testing practices within any bank
Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.
problem Stress testing correlations in financial asset portfolios.
method Parametric representation of correlations, Bayesian variable selection, joint distribution of stress scenarios.
result Inference of worst-case correlation scenarios using stress tests.
DGNN predicts financial margin calls under stress tests.
problem Forecasting margin calls in dynamic financial networks.
method Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture.
result DGNN produces accurate forecasts up to 21 days.
In 2012, JPMorgan accumulated a USD~6.2 billion loss on a credit derivatives portfolio, the so-called `London Whale', partly as a consequence of de-correlations of non-perfectly correlated positions that were supposed to hedge each other. Motivated by this case, we devise a factor model for correlations that allows for…
A quick review of European financial stability institutions and the role of stress tests in the current juridical system.
Paper models cloud outages for cyber insurance stress-testing.
problem Cyber insurance portfolios' vulnerability to simultaneous cloud outages.
method Modeling and calibrating cloud-outage scenarios, measuring diversification.
result Cloud-outage diversification can protect against accumulation risk.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
AST provides a method to validate safe autonomy without unsafe simplifications.
problem Validation of safe autonomy in complex systems.
method Adaptive Stress Testing (AST) approach.
result AST can find failures without unsafe simplifications.
The paper discusses fairness in bank stress tests, comparing various methods to address institutional differences.
problem Fair aggregation of bank-specific stress test models into a common model.
method Comparing various notions of regression fairness, including estimating and discarding centered bank fixed effects.
result The method of estimating and discarding centered bank fixed effects is preferable for linear models, improving forecast accuracy and equal treatment.
This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
Unified model for network risks, including bilateral and central clearing, with practical applications.
problem Managing risks in financial networks with multiple trading types.
method Developed a one-period XVA model with explicit formulas for various quantities.
result Illustrated practical uses for stress testing and portfolio optimization.
The paper tackles spurious correlations in machine learning models and introduces counterfactual invariance.
problem Spurious correlations in machine learning models that depend on irrelevant parts of input data.
method The paper uses causal inference to stress test models and introduces counterfactual invariance as a formal requirement.
result Counterfactual invariance is a requirement for models to be robust to irrelevant perturbations in input data.
Proposes measuring fairness through multiple stakeholder-curated stress tests.
problem Limited power of rigid fairness metrics and lack of stakeholder involvement in fairness discussions.
method Shift focus from fairness metrics to stress tests curated by stakeholders.
result Machine's performance under multiple stress tests reflects fairness.
A new method improves feature importance and model stress-testing reliability.
problem Estimating feature contributions in machine learning models for trust and transparency.
method Replacing multiple random permutations with a single, deterministic, and optimal permutation.
result Improved bias-variance tradeoffs and accuracy in challenging scenarios.
Third part of a study on liquidity risk in asset management, focusing on managing the asset-liability liquidity risk.
problem Managing the asset-liability liquidity risk in asset management.
method Develops a methodological and practical framework for liquidity stress testing programs.
result Proposes measurement, management, and monitoring tools for controlling the liquidity gap.
Paper improves SVaR estimation for stress testing under macro scenarios using a hybrid GPR-HS framework.
problem Numerical instability in traditional SVaR estimation under extreme shocks.
method Extends GPR-HS framework to forward-looking stress scenarios with SACS for stable covariance.
result Stable SVaR ranges from -2.1020% to -2.2231%, preserving coherence property.
A method using optimal transport removes arbitrage in option prices for stress-testing.
problem Removing arbitrage opportunities in option prices for regulatory stress-tests.
method Optimal transport approach to project signed marginal measures onto martingale measures.
result Strong duality formula and convergence results for the regularized problem.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
problem Analyzing and predicting relative spreads between economies in fixed income markets.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating dynamic Nelson-Siegel model and kernel PCA.
result The new model outperforms the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model in explaining relative spreads.
Develops a method for reverse stress testing in multivariate scenarios.
problem Reconstructing a multivariate stress scenario from a single exogenous shock.
method Maximizing conditional density under three distributional assumptions.
result Simulated scenarios are economically coherent and reproduce risk-reward asymmetry.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
New RBM model outperforms copula models in credit risk management.
problem Approximating credit portfolio losses accurately and efficiently.
method Restricted Boltzmann Machines for universal approximation of loss distributions.
result RBM model outperforms parametric copula models in various credit risk tasks.
Paper uses MLMC for SCR calculation and stress tests, showing computational efficiency.
problem Computing SCR and stress tests for insurance companies.
method Multilevel Monte-Carlo (MLMC) estimator for maximum of conditional expectations.
result MLMC estimator is computationally more efficient and avoids regression issues.
Paper proposes MAST to identify stress conditions in forecasting models.
problem Improving reliability and transparency of univariate forecasting models under stress.
method Meta-learning and data augmentation approach to predict stress conditions.
result MAST identifies conditions leading to large errors in forecasting models.
Model shows how financial contagion spreads through complex interdependencies.
problem Understanding how banks fail in an interconnected financial system.
method Unified model combining direct and indirect dependencies; three reconstruction methods.
result Hierarchical cascades reveal dominant banks in failures.
Model predicts operational risk using HMMs with economic covariates.
problem Predicting operational risk losses with time-dependent structures and economic covariates.
method Hidden Markov Models extended to multivariate observations with an auxiliary economic variable.
result Calibration results show relevance of including economic covariates.
LLM generates coherent macroeconomic stress scenarios for portfolio risk assessment.
problem Macro-financial stress testing and portfolio risk assessment using traditional methods.
method Hybrid prompt-RAG pipeline combining structured prompting and retrieval of country fundamentals and news.
result LLM-generated scenarios yield stable tail-risk amplification with limited sensitivity to retrieval choices.
Framework for transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure.
problem Transitioning financial models from risk-neutral to real-world measure to better reflect market dynamics and investor preferences.
method Leveraging probability theory, specifically Girsanov's theorem, to incorporate real-world dynamics into financial models.
result Validation of the robustness and practical relevance of the methodology through case studies involving financial forecasts and stress tests.
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, the framework al…
Study assesses climate risks on supply chains and financial systems using detailed firm emissions data.
problem Lack of firm-level CO2 emissions data hinders assessment of transition risks from carbon pricing.
method Used detailed Hungarian firm emissions data and a simple economic ABM model to simulate carbon pricing impacts.
result 45% of companies are directly exposed to carbon pricing, leading to significant economic and financial losses.
Proposes a method to incorporate current market conditions in VaR and stress testing.
problem Inaccurate VaR and stress testing under changing market conditions.
method Clusters market conditions using Variational Inference (VI) and historical data weighting.
result Proposed approach provides more accurate insights into portfolio risk under near-term market changes.
I studied the convergence of regional house prices to national prices in USA by analyzing time-series of house price indices of 9 Census Divisions. I found the evidence of the convergence in some parts of the country using asymmetric unit root tests. The fact that the evidence of the convergence is not present in large…
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers of systemic events, and it removes the arbitrariness in the selection of shock sc…
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting commodity futures prices.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating yield curve dynamics.
result Functional regression model outperforms Schwartz-Smith model in estimating short-end of futures curve.
In the last years, increasing efforts have been put into the development of effective stress tests to quantify the resilience of financial institutions. Here we propose a stress test methodology for central counterparties based on a network characterization of clearing members, whose links correspond to direct credits …
The study models credit risk using Merton's framework and binomial trees.
problem Credit risk pricing and implied volatility estimation.
method Calibrated using Merton's structural model, with asset volatility derived from Black-Scholes-Merton. Implied mean return and probability surfaces constructed using a recombining binomial tree.
result Established a practical method for constructing implied credit surfaces.
Paper uses interbank contagion to predict U.S. bank defaults, finding it highly explanatory.
problem Predicting U.S. bank defaults using interbank contagion.
method Regression and neural network models were used to analyze U.S. commercial bank data.
result Interbank contagion is highly explanatory in default prediction, often outperforming established metrics.
Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.
New method models covariates and responses without parametric assumptions using manifold learning.
problem Losing explanatory power for responses in standard factor models applied to covariates alone.
method Anisotropic diffusion maps for learning low-dimensional embeddings.
result Kalman filtering in diffusion-map coordinates improves joint covariate-response prediction.
New benchmarks focus on LLM risk in finance, not just accuracy.
problem Standard benchmarks ignore LLM financial risks, leading to unsafe deployment.
method Three-level agenda: model, workflow, and system stress-testing.
result Hidden weaknesses in LLMs are missed by traditional benchmarks.
We examine three methods of constructing correlated Student-t random variables. Our motivation arises from simulations that utilise heavy-tailed distributions for the purposes of stress testing and economic capital calculations for financial institutions. We make several observations regarding the suitability of the …
Determining possible failure scenarios is a critical step in the evaluation of autonomous vehicle systems. Real-world vehicle testing is commonly employed for autonomous vehicle validation, but the costs and time requirements are high. Consequently, simulation-driven methods such as Adaptive Stress Testing (AST) have b…